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Fang Shijun: China’s Livestock & Feed Market Review 2010 and Outlook 2011 (english)
- 1. China’s Livestock & Feed Market Review 2010 and Outlook 2011 9 March, 2011 Fang Shi Jun Senior Analyst, eFeedLink
- 8. China’s livestock market in 2010 Data Source: eFeedLink
- 24. China’s feed market projections 2011 Data Source: eFeedLink Animal production drives changes in feed output Feed Swine Layer Broiler Aqua Rumin-ants Others Total 2011/10 +2.65% +0.64% +5.03% 2.33% +1.56% +3.18% 3.08% ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Animal Produc-tion Live Pig Layer Broiler Aqua Rumin- ants Others Total 2011/10 +1.91% +1.50% +3.66% +1.85% +1.63% +2.73% +2.34%
- 27. Review on raw material price movement in 2009/10 (RMB/MT) Data Source: eFeedLink Corn Soymeal Rapeseed Meal Cottonseed meal Fishmeal 2010Y Annual avg. price 1942.46 3160.08 2236.50 2472.17 11876.33 2009Y Annual avg. price 1655.50 3368.00 1910.50 2181.20 8364.40 10/09 price change in % 17.25% -6.03% 16.99% 13.42% 43.33% 10-09 Price change in RMB 285.50 -203.00 324.50 292.80 3624.60
- 28. Data Source: eFeedLink Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 10Y 1825 1824 1852 1919 1958 1971 1964 1977 1981 1982 1996 2040 1941 09Y 1471 1485 1568 1599 1606 1618 1687 1733 1785 1744 1766 1805 1656 10/09 24.1% 22.8% 18.1% 20.0% 21.9% 21.9% 16.5% 14.1% 11.0% 13.6% 13.0% 13.0% 17.2%
- 29. Corn price 2006-2010 RMB/MT Data Source: eFeedLink Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2010 1825 1824 1852 1919 1958 1971 1963 1976 1981 1982 2019 2036 1942 2009 1471 1485 1568 1599 1606 1618 1687 1733 1785 1744 1766 1805 1656 2008 1673 1671 1669 1655 1697 1708 1735 1732 1726 1676 1617 1501 1672 2007 1504 1496 1500 1492 1538 1580 1573 1565 1577 1576 1644 1704 1562 2006 1232 1247 1261 1253 1307 1346 1355 1357 1374 1343 1396 1493 1331
- 30. Soybean supply in quantity (2002-2011) (K MT) Domestic Production Import Export Total Supply Imp/Total supply Volume Compare to last yr Volume Compare to last yr Volume Compareto last yr Volume Compare to last yr 2002 16400 11310 259 25951 43.6% 2003 15390 -6.2% 20744 83.4% 267 3.0% 34367 32.4% 60.4% 2004 17400 13.1% 20230 -2.5% 334 25.2% 35796 4.2% 56.5% 2005 16350 -6.0% 26590 31.4% 397 18.6% 41044 14.7% 64.8% 2006 16200 -0.9% 28270 6.3% 379 -4.4% 42591 3.8% 66.4% 2007 14000 -13.6% 30820 9.0% 457 20.4% 42864 0.6% 71.9% 2008 16500 17.9% 37440 21.5% 468 2.6% 51972 21.2% 72.0% 2009 14500 -12.1% 42550 13.6% 346 -26.2% 55204 6.2% 77.1% 2010 15000 3.4% 54800 28.8% 350 1.2% 67950 23.1% 80.6% 2011 15000 0.0% 57500 4.9% 360 2.9% 70640 4.0% 81.4%
- 31. Data Source: eFeedLink Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg 10Y 3351 3158 3066 3054 2944 2802 2981 3184 3215 3451 3410 3368 3165 09Y 3490 3254 2964 3267 3177 3439 3366 3454 3407 3490 3562 3546 3368 10/09 -4.0% -3.0% 3.4% -6.5% -7.3% -18.5% -11.4% -7.8% -5.6% -1.1% -4.3% -5.0% -6.0%
- 32. Soymeal market price 2006-2010 RMB/MT Data Source: eFeedLink Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg 2010 3351 3158 3066 3054 2044 2802 2981 3184 3215 3451 3438 3277 3160 2009 3490 3254 2964 3267 3177 3439 3366 3454 3407 3490 3562 3546 3368 2008 3634 3791 3843 3669 3852 4381 4502 4011 3867 3304 3258 3041 3763 2007 2198 2369 2477 2322 2353 2315 2437 2736 3218 3367 3716 3720 2769 2006 2398 2381 2270 2121 2109 2063 2066 2056 2124 2162 2296 2193 2187