1. The U.S. Economy
Pre-stimulus/Post-stimulus
Michael Norman
JTF Chief Economist

2. Gross Domestic Product
(Y-o-Y % change)
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5 Stimulus enacted
-6

3. Unemployment Rate
11
10
9
Stimulus enacted
8
7
6
5
4

4. Total Nonfarm Payrolls
(M-o-M change thousands)
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000 Stimulus enacted

5. Total Private Payrolls
(M-o-M change thousands)
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
Stimulus enacted
-1000

6. Industrial Production
105
100
95
90
85
Stimulus enacted
80

7. Capacity Utilization
(percent)
85
80
75
70
65 Stimulus enacted
60

8. Total Vehicle Sales
(million units)
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
Stimulus enacted
8

9. Housing Starts
(thous units)
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
Stimulus enacted
400

10. Stock Market
(S&P 500 Index)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
Stimulus enacted
600

11. Dollar Index
95
90
Stimulus enacted
85
80
75
70

12. 10yr Treasury Yield
(percent)
6
5.5
5
Stimulus enacted
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1

13. U. Of Mich Confidence Survey
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55 Stimulus enacted
50

14. Retail Sales
(billions $)
420
400
380
360
340
320
Stimulus enacted
300

15. Personal Income
(Y-o-Y % change)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Stimulus enacted
-8

16. Personal Saving
(billions $)
1200
1000
800
600
400
Stimulus enacted
200
0

17. Total Business Investment
(billions $)
2450
2250
2050
1850
1650
1450 Stimulus enacted
1250

18. Corporate Profits
(billions $)
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000 Stimulus enacted
800

19. CPI
(Y-o-Y % change)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Stimulus enacted
-3

20. ISM PMI Index
65
60
55
50
45
40
35 Stimulus enacted
30

21. Oil
(WTI $ per barrel)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40 Stimulus enacted
20

22. Household Net Worth
(billions $)
68000
66000
64000
62000
60000
58000
56000
54000
52000
Stimulus enacted
50000

23. Disclosure
This information provided in this publication is for informational purposes only. Investors should consider this
report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This information report is not an offer to
sell or a solicitation to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal.
This report has been prepared as a matter of general information. It is not intended to be a complete
description of any security or company mentioned, and is not an offer to buy or sell any security. All facts and
statistics are from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Additional
information of these securities and companies is available upon request. Securities, financial instruments or
strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. This material does not take into account
your particular investment objectives, financial situations or strategies. Before acting on the materials
herein, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary seek
professional advice. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past
performance is no guarantee of future performance. Trading and investment decisions are the sole
responsibility of the reader.