Scientific Forum & Public Conference, 27-28 October 2015, Luxembourg

1. Research forum on what type of
indicators are most suitable for
policy analysis?
Finn Tarp

2. Background
• The MDGs were established in 2000 following adoption of the United Nations
Millennium Declaration. All 189 countries at the time (today there are 193 countries)
committed to achieve eight goals and 21 targets by 2015
1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
2. Achieve universal primary education
3. Promote gender equality
4. Reduce child mortality
5. Improve maternal health
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases
7. Ensure environmental sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for development
• Important progress has been made since 2000

3. Significant poverty reduction
0 20 40 60
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America and the Caribbean
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia
Western Asia
Oceania
Caucasus and Central Asia
1990
2008
% of people living on less than $1.25 USD (2005 PPP)
• % of people living on less than
$1.25 a day was halved between
1990 and 2015
• China alone was able to lift 630
million people out of poverty in 25
years
• The proportion of undernourished
people has decreased from 23% in
the 1990s to 15% in 2010

4. Falling under-five mortality rates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1990 2010
Deaths of children age <5 per 1,000 live births
Sub-Saharan Africa
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia
LAC

5. Significant increase in primary school
enrolments (%)
Region 1990 2010
Boys Girls Boys Girls
Developing world 84 75 91 89
Sub-Saharan Africa 57 50 78 74
Latin America 88 84 96 95
Southern Asia 83 66 94 91
Western Asia 87 79 94 89

6. However, the development job is far from done
• Poverty stubbornly persist
– Still more than 1 billion people live in extreme poverty
– Numbers of people going hungry remain disturbingly high — one in eight worldwide
and one in six children under five is underweight
• Not only access, but access to good quality social services remain a challenge
– Functionally illiterate and innumerate children completing primary education

7. On 25 September 2015, all 193 countries adopted a new ambitious global development agenda,
“Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”. It includes 17 goals and 169
targets (and about 304 proposed indicators for monitoring progress)
From MDGs to SDGs
1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and
promote sustainable agriculture
11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and
sustainable
3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong
learning opportunities for all
13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and
marine resources for sustainable development
6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and
sanitation for all
15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of
terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests,
combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and
halt biodiversity loss
7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy
for all
16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable
development, provide access to justice for all and build effective,
accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full
and productive employment and decent work for all
17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global
partnership for sustainable development
9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable
industrialization and foster innovation

8. Background
• There are some complex challenges ahead, in particular related to the following:
– How well the selected indicators measure progress on the goals and targets
– What data sources can be used, and how reliable they are
– How to disaggregate the indicators by relevant groups or dimensions
• Let me focus on Goal 1: “End Poverty in all its forms everywhere”, to discuss these
issues in more detail

9. Goal 1: End poverty in all
its forms everywhere

10. Goal 1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere
Targets by 2030
1.1 Eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere, currently measured as people living on less than
$1.25 a day
1.2 Reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its
dimensions according to national definitions
1.3 Implement nationally appropriate social protection systems and measures for all, including floors, and
achieve substantial coverage of the poor and the vulnerable
1.4 Ensure that all men and women, in particular the poor and the vulnerable, have equal rights to economic
resources, as well as access to basic services, ownership and control over land and other forms of property,
inheritance, natural resources, appropriate new technology and financial services, including microfinance
1.5 Build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and
vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and
disasters
1a Ensure significant mobilization of resources from a variety of sources, including through enhanced
development cooperation, in order to provide adequate and predictable means for developing countries, in
particular least developed countries, to implement programmes and policies to end poverty in all its
dimensions
1b Create sound policy frameworks at the national, regional and international levels, based on pro-poor and
gender-sensitive development strategies, to support accelerated investment in poverty eradication actions

11. Target 1.1 Eradicate extreme poverty
• Proposed indicator
– Proportion of population below $1.25 (PPP) per day disaggregated by sex and age group
• Issues and challenges
– World Bank poverty line susceptive to changes in PPP factors (PL now set at $1.90 a day)
– Poverty line too low for middle income and high income countries
– Nationally representative household survey data are still limited, irregular and of poor quality in many
developing countries
– A well-coordinated data revolution is needed to improve data collection efforts and harmonize the
content, periodicity and units of measurement of surveys and censuses across countries
– Shall we focus on poverty headcounts or the poverty gap?

12. Target 1.2 Reduce by half poverty in all its
dimensions according to national definitions
• Proposed indicator
– Proportion of population living below national poverty line, disaggregated by sex
and age group
• Issues and challenges
– Relevant for domestic objectives, but inadequate for global or regional monitoring
– Should countries adopt absolute or relative poverty lines?
– Should countries adopt consumption-based poverty lines or multidimensional
approaches?

13. Target 1.3 Implement nationally appropriate social
protection systems for all, and achieve substantial
coverage of the poor and vulnerable
• Proposed indicator
– Percentage of population covered by social protection systems, including: a) old age pensions; b)
child support; c) unemployment support; d) disabilities pensions; e) women receiving maternity
benefits at childbirth; f) occupational injury; g) poor and vulnerable people receiving benefits
• Issues and challenges
– Unclear what ‘substantial coverage’ mean: 50%, 70%, 90%?
– Should the targeted population be defined in terms of categories or by poverty focus?
– Unfair target for most LIC countries, as it would be hard for them to adopt social protection systems
– A transfer package of a basic pension + a child focused transfer + unemployment insurance) would
cost for LICs 3-6% of GDP and absorb between 18-40% of government revenues

14. Programme Country Beneficiaries
(in millions)
Income Group
Old Age Pension South Africa 10 Upper middle income
Child Support Grant South Africa 9.5 Upper middle income
Productive Safety Net Program Ethiopia 8.2 Low income
Expanded Public Works Programme:
Phase 2
South Africa 5 Upper middle income
Improving Livelihood Through Public
Works Programme
Malawi 2.7 Low income
Disability grant South Africa 1.5 Upper middle income
Protracted Relief Programme Zimbabwe 1.5 Low income
Food Subsidy Programme Mozambique 0.7 Low income
Old Age Grant Namibia 0.65 Upper middle income
Old Age Pension Botswana 0.60 Upper middle income
Sub-total 40.3
Other 32 pilots 3
TOTAL sub-Saharan Africa 43
Largest transfers programs in SSA are in MICs
Source: Barrientos and Niño-Zarazúa (2011)

15. Target 1.4 Ensure that all people have equal rights to economic resources,
access to basic services, ownership and control over land and other forms of
property, inheritance, natural resources, appropriate new technology and
financial services, including microfinance
• Proposed indicators
– Proportion of the population living in households with access to basic services
– Share of women among agricultural land owners by age and location (Urban/Rural)
• Issues and challenges
– What does ‘basic services’ actually mean?
– The target covers issues of different nature, so more indicators may be needed to cover all its dimensions,
however, because of its diversity, it is unclear how the overall target could be measured
– Lessons from MDGs indicate that it is not only access, but the quality of basic services that matters
– Diversity in legal property laws on natural resources across countries (and even states, provinces) would make
difficult to harmonize indicators of ownership. Here the issue is not ownership but the way revenues from such
resources are distributed.

16. Target 1.5 Build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations
and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events
and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters
• Proposed indicator
– Number of deaths, missing people, injured, relocated or evacuated due to disasters per 100,000
people
• Issues and challenges
– What does ‘disasters’ actually mean in this context? Is it from natural disasters, conflict and war,
crime, economic crises?
– Indicator focuses on ex-post events but does not build on data on ex-ante measures such as
exposure and resilience to risks
– It would require building and strengthening the capacity of governments to collect administrative data
and set measures of accessibility, transparency and independence.

17. Target 1.a Ensure significant mobilization of resources from a variety of
sources, including through enhanced development cooperation, in order to
provide adequate and predictable means for developing countries, in
particular least developed countries, to implement programmes and policies
to end poverty in all its dimensions
• Proposed indicator
– Share of total overall government spending (incl. subnational) on programs directed to bottom 40% of population
of country
• Issues and challenges
– Intricate to identify programs directed to the bottom 40%. For example, spending on education and health care are
not targeted at the poor per se, although they are critical for development (and absorb a large share of
government expenditure)
– The relative nature of this indicator means that its effectiveness will depend on the shape of the income
distribution. An absolute indicator could complement the information on this target
– The proposed indicator does not capture any effort or capacity to collect revenues by sources
– Data on government expenditure disaggregated by levels of government remains very limited, particularly in LICs

18. Target 1.b Create sound policy frameworks at the national, regional and
international levels, based on pro-poor and gender sensitive development
strategies, to support accelerated investment in poverty eradication actions.
• Proposed indicator
– Number of national action plans related to multi-lateral environmental agreements that support
accelerated investment in actions that eradicate poverty and sustainably use natural resources
• Issues and challenges
– Number of action plans per se does not translate into policy reforms (developing countries have
plenty of well written plans with no actual reforms)
– The proposed indicator does not capture any progress on pro-poor or gender sensitive policies

19. Concluding remarks
• Besides the work ahead on the goals and targets, a data revolution is needed to
– Improve the local capacity to collect HH survey data (only 60 countries collect nationally
representative HH survey data on a regular basis)
– Coordinate and harmonise the content, periodicity and units of measurement of survey and
census data
• Autonomy of National Statistical Offices would be desirable to ensure quality and
reliability of data
• Funding to build administrative, tax registry and government expenditure data
collection capacity is needed to formulate policies and monitor goals and targets
(Only about 0.13% of foreign aid goes to National Statistical Offices)

20. Concluding remarks
• International household survey initiatives (e.g. LSMS, DHS,
MICS) have contributed greatly to knowledge generation, but
more work is needed to improve efforts towards data
harmonization with national NSOs (panel dimension)
• Technological innovations and methods can reduce the costs
of data collection efforts but they are still large
• Can these resources be mobilised?

21. www.wider.unu.edu
Helsinki, Finland