Sustainable Solutions for Transforming Transport

1. The ITF Transport Outlook
2021
SEAI National Energy Research &
Policy Conference
Presented by:
Malithi Fernando, Policy Analyst/Modeller
25 November, 2021
Reshaping mobility post pandemic

2. The ITF Transport Outlook 2021
An equitable transition to
sustainable mobility in
the post-pandemic era.
https://www.itf-oecd.org/itf-transport-outlook-2021

3. Where are we headed?

4. Global demand for transport will more than
double
Under the current policy trajectory, passenger activity will increase 2.3-fold to 2050.
Freight transport will grow by a factor of 2.6. Population growth and increasing
prosperity drive increased demand in all scenarios.
Passenger transport demand
(billion passenger-kilometres)
Freight transport demand
(billion tonne-kilometres)
2015 Reshape
123 051
2015 2050
Current trajectory
(Recover scenario)
52 766
2.3x
2015 Recover
2050
2015 2050
Current trajectory
(Recover scenario)
344 279
134 959
2.6x

5. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2015 2050
Current trajectory
(Recover scenario)
Gigatonnes
CO
2
Transport CO2 emissions will grow 16%
Under today’s policies, transport
will emit 16% more CO2 in 2050
than 2015
Emissions would exceed
transport’s carbon budget more
than three times
Total transport CO2 emissions by
sector
(Gigatonnes CO2)
Freight
Passenger
Note: Estimates of the emissions levels needed to meet 1.5C warming levels were sourced from https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer similarly to ICCT
(2020). Transport sector emissions pathways with low or no overshoot were selected before estimating the median emissions in each year. Emissions of black
carbon are excluded as these are not estimated in the ITF or IEA MoMo models.
Emission levels
needed to limit
warming to 1.5°C

6. What can we do?

7. Greater ambition is needed to reverse the
growth of transport CO2 emissions
Transport CO2 emissions are
set to rise, not fall
CO2 emissions could be nearly
70% less in 2050 compared to
2015
Total transport CO2 emissions by
scenario
(Gigatonnes CO2)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Note: ITF models used in this Outlook are typically run by five-year increments, therefore the 2020 to 2025 recovery trend may not necessarily be linear despite being shown as such in the
figure. The shape of this “recovery curve” will depend on policy implementation and economic trajectories. Estimates of the emissions levels needed to meet 1.5C warming levels were sourced
from https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer similarly to ICCT (2020). Transport sector emissions pathways with low or no overshoot were selected before estimating the median
emissions in each year, error bars represent the 25th and 75th percentiles of scenarios. Emissions of black carbon are excluded as these are not estimated in the ITF or IEA MoMo models.
Gigatonnes
CO
2
Transport’s carbon budget to
limit global warming to 1.5C
Ambitious policies
(Reshape scenario)
Current trajectory
(Recover scenario)
Ambitious policies +
leveraged recovery
(Reshape+ scenario)

8. Align Covid-19 recovery packages to revive the
economy, combat climate change and
strengthen equity
An unbalanced focus on economic growth ignores social and environmental costs. Aligned
policies are more cost effective, gain public support, and can achieve goals faster.
Global inequality
Incomes
Emissions
Opportunities
Exacerbated by Covid-19
Economic losses
Access limitations
Address with aligned action
Economic recovery
Environmental objectives
Policies for inclusion

9. Governments should shift the priority to
improving accessibility
Mobility – the old paradigm
Focus on fast trips, not good links
Favours urban sprawl
Results in more travel, not less
Prioritises the private car
Long supply chains
Accessibility – the new paradigm
Focus on access to destinations and goods
Creates denser, mixed-use neighbourhoods
Results in less travel, not more
Prioritises sustainable, affordable modes
Shorter supply chains

10. Target different transport sectors with
strategies that reflect their specific
decarbonisation potential
Urban travel has the greatest demand management potential. Reducing demand is
most difficult for regional and intercity travel.
Urban passenger
transport demand in
2050
(billion passenger-kilometres)
54 313
68 737
42 290
65 262
Urban total non urban
Ambitious policies
+ leveraged
recovery
(Reshape+ scenario)
Current trajectory
(Recover scenario)
Non-urban passenger
transport demand in
2050
(billion passenger-kilometres)
Ambitious policies
+ leveraged
recovery
(Reshape+ scenario)
Current trajectory
(Recover scenario)
344 279
281 319
Recover
2050
Reshape+
Current trajectory
(Recover scenario)
Ambitious policies +
leveraged recovery
(Reshape+ scenario)
Freight transport
demand in 2050
(billion tonne-kilometres)
-18%
-5%
-22%

11. Support innovation to accelerate technological
breakthroughs needed to decarbonise
transport
Technological improvements offer the most promising path to decarbonising those parts of
the transport sectors that are hard to decarbonise, such as aviation and road haulage
Improve and invest in
new technologies
Alternative fuels
Improved energy efficiency
Aligned price incentives
Boost digitalisation
Real time information
Efficient routing
Optimal use of assets
Encourage uptake
Target high-use vehicle fleets
Invest in charging infrastructure
Offer purchase subsidies

12. Intensify collaboration for sustainability with
non-transport sectors, between countries and
public and private actors
Public and private sectors
need to work together
Maximise benefits of new
technologies and services.
Clean transport
needs clean energy
Green electricity grid and
clean fuel production
Climate financing for
global decarbonisation
Ensure equitable distribution
of costs and benefits

13. Six top tasks for policy makers
Align policies
2
Increase ambition
1 Target sectors
4
Focus on accessibility
3
Support innovation
5
Break down silos
6
…to revive the economy, combat climate change and
strengthen equity.
…to reverse the trend and reduce transport emissions
by 70%. Today’s policies are not sufficient.
…with strategies geared to their emissions-reduction
potential. Urban mobility has the highest potential, road
freight and aviation are hardest to decarbonise.
…to make trips easier and increase opportunities. More
mobility is not better well-being.
…to accelerate technological breakthroughs needed to
decarbonise transport.
…and boost collaboration between interdependent sectors
like transport, energy, tourism and trade. Transport cannot
succeed alone.

14. Thank you
Malithi Fernando, ITF
malithi.fernando@itf-oecd.org

15. EV take-up in Norway
Challenges and successes
Sveinung Kvalø
The Norwegian
EV Association

16. Norwegian EV
Association
Non-profit NGO
Over 100,000 members (EV drivers)
40 employees
→ Our goal: Electrify transport as
fast as possible!

17. Mr. Syltevik – the world’s oldest EV
driver!

18. Yes, it’s cold in nothern Norway

19. Finnmark
Hordaland
Nordland
Rogaland
Møre og Romsdal
Akershus
Trøndelag
Troms
Østfold
Oppland
Hedmark
Oslo
Vestfold
Vest-Agder
Sogn og Fjordane
Aust-Agder
Telemark
Buskerud
EV market share per
county (September 2021)
Kilde: OFV
80%
74%
70%
33%
73%
88%
77%
73%
73%
83%
76%
68%
67%
71%
80%
71%
75%
75%
Source: OFV
Plug-in hybrids are not
included in the numbers!

20. Finnmark
Hordaland
Nordland
Rogaland
Møre og Romsdal
Akershus
Trøndelag
Troms
Østfold
Oppland
Hedmark
Oslo
Vestfold
Vest-Agder
Sogn og Fjordane
Aust-Agder
Telemark
Buskerud
EV market share per
county (September 2021, privately
owned)
Kilde: OFV
92%
85%
88%
65%
86%
95%
91%
88%
88%
96%
90%
88%
90%
85%
92%
89%
89%
89%
Source: OFV
Plug-in hybrids are not
included in the numbers!

21. Why is this happening?

22. Plug-in hybrid
Government target: 100% EV sales in
2025
Zero emission Zero emission projection
Source: OFV
(no plug-in hybrids in 2025!)

23. Support is the key
Buying or leasing:
• No purchase tax
• Zero VAT
• LCV support scheme
Owning:
• 70% annual road tax
• 60% company car tax
Using:
• Toll roads, ferries, parking
max 50%
• Access to bus lanes

24. Purchase taxes
400.000,-
Price before taxes 25% VAT Purchase tax
Price before taxes
400.000,-

25. New buildings must
be “charging ready”
“Right to charge” in
apartment buildings
ZEV Public
procurement:
- Cars 2022
- City buses 2025
Other laws and regulations

26. Happy EV drivers
95%
are satisfied or very
satisfied with being an
EV driver
Norwegian EV driver survey 2021

27. Challenges

28. Two remaining hurdles (to reach
100%) • Company tax rules weakens EV
incentives for leasing and company cars
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Privately owned Company owned
• Incentives for plug-in
hybrids are too
generous

29. Some charging issues…

30. Fast chargers and EVs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(Sep)
Number
of
BEVs
per
fast
charger
Number
of
fast
chargers
Number of fast chargers Number of HPC EVs per charger

31. From 400.000 EVs to over 1.000.000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Number
of
fast
chargers
Number
of
EVs
Hurtigladere Elbiler
Fast chargers
From 3.700 to 10.000 fast chargers
Source: OFV, Nobil and Norwegian EV Association
EVs

32. EXPERIENCE THAT THE
FAST CHARGERS DON’T
WORK OCCASIONALLY OR
MORE OFTEN
42%
The Norwegian EV driver survey 2021

33. EXPERIENCE QUEUES AT FAST CHARGING
STATIONS OCCASIONALLY OR MORE OFTEN
48%
The Norwegian EV driver survey 2021

34. Pricing and payment systems
• Increasing number of operators
• Payment by RFID tags, apps, SMS,
QR (bank card in browser)
• EV Association distributes universal
RFID tag to members
• Price models are changing – more
kWh or combination kWh+time

35. FIND THE DIFFERENT
PRICE MODELS FOR FAST
CHARGING EASY TO
UNDERSTAND
12%
The Norwegian EV driver survey 2021

36. Skjermdump fra: : https://www.vg.no/annonsorinnhold/circlek/fremtidens-stasjon/
Chargers Petrol/Diesel

37. Conclusion

38. We’re almost there
• EVs are no longer for urban areas only
• A large variety of models available
• The basic fast charging network is already in place
• “Right to charge” at private parking spaces in apartments
• The new government has proposed to take down the
over-generous incentives for plug-in hybrids
 Remove tax benefits for company owned fossil cars
 Light commercial vehicles lagging behind
 Charging must be easy to operate and to pay for

39. EVS35 in Oslo 11-15 June

40. elbil.no

41. Behavioral Parking Research
November 24, 2021
Joseph Sherlock – jjs92@duke.edu

43. MAKING PEOPLE
HAPPIER, HEALTHIER AND WEALTHIER
WITH BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE
AT HOME AND ABROAD

45. Study 1:
Reframing the Daily Commute

46. Lab Study
Framing experiment conditions:
Control Reverse

47. Lab Study
Framing experiment conditions:
Cost Emissions Calories Productivity

48. Lab Study
● All treatment conditions
significantly increased
likelihood of stating a
preference for alternative
mode of transport to solo
driving, vs Control.
● CO2 emissions + Reverse
Ordering also significantly
increased this likelihood vs
Reverse Ordering alone.

49. Study 2:
Reframing the Daily Commute

50. Field Study 1: Email Message Framing
Recipients were sent a
standard email,
welcoming them back
to campus for the fall,
explaining parking
options with the annual
permit structure
explained first followed
by the option to enroll
in daily parking pricing.
Control
Recipients were sent
the standard email, but
the daily parking
pricing program was
presented first in the
body of the email.
Daily first
Recipients were sent
the standard email, but
the subject line and the
introduction to the
email focused on the
personal financial
benefits of opting in to
the daily parking
program.
Financial
Recipients were sent
the standard email, but
the subject line and the
introduction to the
email focused on the
potential environmental
benefits of opting in to
the daily parking
program.
Environmental
MoveVU sent email to ~12,000 graduate students, faculty, and staff inviting them to participate in the daily
parking program. Recipients were randomized to receive an email using one of four frames:

51. Field Study 1: Email Message Framing
Relative to the control group, the Financial
framing condition had a statistically significant
higher percentage of daily parking program
sign-ups (p = 0.02).
The Daily First (p = 0.07) and Environmental (p
= 0.09) framing conditions also trended toward
higher percentages of sign-ups compared to
the control group..

52. Study 3:
Pain of Payment & Parking
Pricing Reminders

53. Study 3 Research Summary
1. Does increasing the salience of daily
parking payments (making it more
visible and tangible) increase the pain
of payment and decrease parking
demand?
2. What framing of daily parking
payments decreases parking demand
the most?
Research Questions
1. Sending prompts daily will further
increase the salience and effectiveness
of the prompts, relative to weekly
(resulting in the strongest decrease in
parking demand).
2. Sending prompts increasing people’s
awareness of their financial loss which
will decrease the amount that they drive
and park.
Hypotheses

54. Field Study 3: Daily Parking Payments

55. Study 3 Conditions
For those who were admitted to the daily parking program, we randomized participants into treatment and
control groups.
n = 135
No notifications about parking activity.
Control
Daily Weekly
Daily + Loss Aversion Weekly + Loss Aversion
n = 141
Notifications about parking costs every day they
drive to increase the pain of payment.
n = 146
Notifications about parking activity once a week
emphasizing cost.
n = 134
Notifications to increase pain of payment and adds
loss aversion w/ other commute options.
n = 126
Weekly summary notifications about parking and
adds loss aversion w/ other commute options.

56. Trip Change (vs Baseline) Model
● The average change (weekly parking
compared to the pre-experiment average)
similarly decreased for all experimental
conditions.
● Weekly-LA messages reduced parking the
most, by -3.16% (statistically significant at
10% level) indicating that these reminders
had the strongest impact on parking
behavior.
● Other conditions weren’t statistically sig.
● Meanwhile, daily reminders with loss
aversion-based framing resulted in the
lowest decrease in parking, at -0.30%. This
was slightly greater than the decrease for
the control group (at 0.46%). I.e. Daily-LA
messages ~ no messages.

57. Weekly Trips
● Trips during the
experiment remained
highest for those in the
daily condition.
● After week 5, trips
began to decrease
Trimmed Sample

58. Study 4:
Daily vs Annual Payment

59. Field Study 2: Daily Pricing and Parking
Behavior
From the pool of faculty, staff, and students who expressed interest in the daily parking program, we
randomized participants into treatment and control groups.
n=711
Were admitted to receive entry into the
daily parking pricing program; were
directed to park at one of three
designated daily parking lots on campus.
n=476
Were not admitted to the daily parking
pricing program (were placed on a
waitlist for potential admittance if
additional parking spaces became
available).
Control Treatment