Webinar Series on COVID-19 and Inequality, 7 October 2021, More information at: https://www.oecd.org/wise/events/covid-and-inequality-webinars.htm

1. Places, inequalities and
the pandemic
7TH OCTOBER 2021
Rudiger Ahrend
OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs,
Regions and Cities

2.  OECD countries: 14% increase in deaths in 2020 compared to previous years
(this means 1.5 million more deaths)…
 Spatial unevenness of the pandemic’s health impact in 2020
 17 pp within-country gap in excess mortality
 Within-country gaps larger than the between-country gap
 Fast growing literature on COVID-19 health impact with subnational lens, but little international
comparisons
The health impact of the pandemic has a strong
geographical dimension

3. Excess mortality in regions of OECD countries, January-December 2020
Percentage increase in 2020 deaths relative to the 2018-19 average, large regions (TL2)
Source: Adapted from OECD Regions and Cities at a Glance 2020

4.  No excess mortality: 5% of regions
 Higher than 20%: one fifth of regions
 Higher than 30%: 8% or regions
 Many hardest-hit regions (>30% more deaths) are or host large cities
e.g. New York, Lombardy, Madrid and Mexico city
 Higher impact in large metropolitan regions than remote regions (18% vs. 14%)
but, excluding Americas, regional convergence by end of year
Excess mortality in 2020

5. Not all places were equally prepared to face
the health crisis

6. Regional disparities in availability of hospital beds are much higher
today than in 2000
 Hospital beds per person have declined
everywhere since 2000, but much faster
in remote regions.
 Metropolitan regions have 65% more
hospital beds per capita than remote
regions, a gap that can affect the capacity
to cope with the COVID-19 crisis.
Hospital beds rate, 2000 and 2018
Beds per 1 000 people, by type of region, weighted averages of small regions (TL3)

7. The spread of COVID-19 has been linked to air pollution.
Air pollution levels in functional urban areas
Levels of PM2.5 in µ/m3, 2019, with change between 2010 and 2019
World trends in air pollution, 2010-19:
• In 30 OECD countries at least one city with
air pollution above WHO recommended
levels
• Air pollution levels have decreased since
2010, except in low- and lower-middle
income countries.
• Highest concentration of PM2.5 lower-
middle income countries’ cities (66 µ/m3 of
PM2.5)
Recommended WHO limit: 10 µ/m3 of PM2.5

8. In several countries, large metropolitan regions show higher drop in mobility to workplaces compared to
other regions
Different reactions of mobility to workplaces across types of
regions
Workplaces percent change from baseline Feb-2020 to Jan-2021
Source: elaboration on Google mobility data

9. Excess
mortality
Health system &
preconditions
Institutions
& Policies
Agglomerations
& Geography
Demographics &
Socio-
economics
What can explain the COVID-19 health impact?
Sources of data: OECD Regional Statistics (database), Gallup World Poll, Google’s databases, others (GIS)

10.  Weaker health system capacity (index)
 Higher population density
 Lower institutional quality (trust in government)
 Share of elderly population (75+)
 Poorer air quality (PM2.5)
Across all pandemic phases
(since the first months)
Stronger in later and longer stages
(Jan-July/Aug 2020)
Stronger during the first wave
(Jan-May/Jun 2020)
Which regional characteristics are correlated to
higher excess mortality across OECD regions?
(sample of 342 regions in 32 OECD and EU countries)
 Decreases in home-to-work mobility are
associated with lower excess mortality
Reducing mobility today by 25% -> decrease
in excess mortality of 1-2.5pp in two months

11. The forthcoming OECD Regional Recovery Platform will provide up-
to date pictures on health and economic recovery in regions
Live in mid-October!

12. Thank you!
Follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn | Subscribe to our Newsletter｜Check out our Website
For info: rudiger.ahrend@oecd.org
OECD Regions and Cities Statistical Atlas
https://regions-cities-atlas.oecd.org
Explore the Atlas to find and download
indicators on demographic, social, economic
and environmental topics of regions and
cities in OECD countries and beyond