This document is a life skills project on global warming submitted by a student named Sourav Ghosh from Shree Ramkrishna Institute of Science and Technology. It discusses the observed increase in the Earth's average surface temperature of 0.74°C over the period of 1906-2005 according to scientific data. If temperatures continue rising at the current rate, serious consequences are possible, including effects on agriculture, cities, and vulnerable coastal populations. The document aims to analyze scientific studies on global warming published in meteorology journals.
2. A PART OF ASSIGNMENT OF LIFE SKILL
DEVELOPMENT AS PER WBSCTE
CURRICULAM
NAME OF THE COLLEGE: SHREE RAMKRISNA INSTITUE OF SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY.
NAME OF THE STUDENT: SOURAV GHOSH.
DEPERTMENT: CIVIL.
YEAR: 1ST
YEAR.
ROLL NO.: 32.
SUPERVISOR NAME: ANUPAMA BHATTACHARIYA
3. SHREE RAMKRISNA INSTITUTE OF
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
(AFFILIATED OF WBSCTE & AICTEE)
DAKSHIN GOBINDAPUR, SONARPUR,
DIST-KOLKATA, PIN-700145
CERTIFICATE
THIS IS TO CERTIFY THAT THE WORKED AND TITLED “GLOBAL WARMING”
SUBMITTED BY SOURAV GHOSH AS A LIFE SKILL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY IN THE
COURSE OF DIPLOMA ENGINEERING UNDER WBSCTE IS A FAITHFUL WORK
CARRIED OUT UNDER THE SUPERVISION AND GUIDANCE THE SUBJECT TEACHER.
THE ASISTANCE AND HELP RECEIVED DURING THE
COURSE OF THE PROJECT HAVE BEEN DULY ACKNOWLEDGED.
-------------------------------------
---------------
(SUPERVISOR)
4.
5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Contributions from many concerns make any kind of work fruitful. This
project is rarely individual work. So I would like to acknowledge my
teachers Ms. Jayati Mondal and Ms. Anupama Bhattachariya who put her
trust in my ability and helped me shape this project. I would like to
thank them for their suggestions and assistance.
I also wish to take up the opportunity to express my heartfelt
gratitude and regrets to Prof. T. Pradhan (principle, S.R.I.S.T.), Prof. A.
Das(in charge, 1st
year ) and Prof. P. K. Majumder (H.O.D., civil
department) not only for constant encouragement in my program, but
also for showing constant guidance during every phase of the work.
Last but not the least, I want to show my gratitude and respect
towards my parents for their constant inspiration, encouragement and
co-operation without which this work could not have been materialize.
6. SUMMARY
Global Warming
This term refers to the general increase in the earth’s average tempera-
ture caused by the presence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
which causes changes in climate patterns across the globe. Scientists
have been able to study climate change by looking at tree cores,
atmospheric composition, sediment cores, ice cores and through
observation. Since the Industrial Revolution (from about 1850 to the
present) astounding amounts of greenhouse gases have been introduced
into the earth’s atmosphere. This is primarily due to increased use of
fossil fuels for generating power. Global warming is the warming up of
the planet above the temperature it "should" be. It is such a concern
at the moment as it seems that the temperature is rising at a rate far
faster than ever before and it is thought that it may be the activities of
the human population over the last 150 years or so that is doing it.
Mean temperatures over the whole planet have risen by about 0.74° C
(1.33° F) in the last 100 years. More than half of this increase has
happened in the last 25 years. The temperature records used to calculate
this are extensive, they have been assembled from thousands of
observation sites on land and sea covering a large, representative portion
of the Earth's surface. Checks and allowances have been made for any
7. bias that may have arisen from the weather stations or instrument
changes.
This is a worry because while the planet can cope with changes in
temperature which are known to have happened over periods of tens
and hundreds of thousands of years in the past and certainly over
millions of years, we don't know how it will cope with relatively rapid
changes in temperature.
The current rate of change is much, much faster than any changes
have ever before as far as we are aware and this is a real problem as
while animals and plants can adapt to slow changes by migration for
instance, a rapid change will inevitably lead to large extinctions of many
species. The human population of the earth is also dependent on a
stable climate for established agriculture and also cities, millions if not
billions of people stand to suffer from the consequences of global
warming mainly the most vulnerable people in the undeveloped nations.
Climate changes in the past over Geological time periods
(millions and tens of millions of years) have been very
8. drastic. During cold periods, much of the planet, even thousands of
miles from both poles have been ice-covered by huge glaciers. During
warm periods, the same regions may have been sub-tropical or even
tropical. Accompanying this have been large changes in sea-level so that
some areas of land have either become flooded completely or left high
and dry. It is potentially an enormous problem as if the global
temperature rises to a level where it is affecting the Antarctic ice-
caps, they may begin to melt and cause sea-level rises globally measured
in meters. There are a great many cities around the world that are on the
coast and they would be flooded and probably have to be abandoned.
There are also a great many countries, especially poorer countries where
a large part of the population live in coastal regions. In this case the
farm-land would be flooded and the people left homeless and without
the ability to feed themselves. In some cases entire island nations (albeit
small ones) in the Pacific Ocean could simply disappear.
9. There are two questions about Global Warming that the world has at the
moment and neither of them has a clear answer, there is much scientific
debate and an awful lot of political argument too.
12. 1
INTRODUCTION
Global warming begins when sunlight
reaches Earth. The clouds, atmospheric
particles, reflective ground surfaces and
ocean surface then reflected about 30
percent of it back into space, while the
remaining is absorbed by oceans, lands and
air. This in turn heats the planet’s surface and atmosphere, making life
possible. As Earth warmed up, this solar energy is radiated by thermal
radiation or infrared heat, travelling directly out to space, thus cooling
the Earth. However, some of the outgoing radiation is re-absorbed by
carbon dioxide, water vapor and other gases in the atmosphere and is
radiated back to Earth’s surface; these gases are known as greenhouse
gases due to their heat-trapping capacity. This re-absorption process is
naturally good; the Earth’s average surface temperature would be very
cold if not for the greenhouse gases
The problem begins when the concentration of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere were artificially raised by humankind at an ever-increasing
rate since the past 250 years. As of 2004, over 8 billion tons of carbon
dioxide was pumped out per year; natural carbon sinks such as forests
13. and the ocean absorbed some of this, while the rest accumulated in the
atmosphere. Millions of pounds of methane are produced in landfills and
agricultural decomposition of biomass and animal manure. Nitrous oxide
is released into the atmosphere by nitrogen-based fertilizers and other
soil management practices. Once released, these greenhouse gases stay
in the atmosphere for decades or longer. According to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), carbon dioxide and
methane levels have increased by 35 and 148 percent since the 1750
industrial revolution. Pale climate readings taken from ice cores and fossil
records dating back to 650 000 years show that both gases are at their
highest levels. Thermal radiation is obstructed further by the increased
concentrations of greenhouse gases, resulting in what is known as
enhanced global warming.
2
Recent observations of global warming have solidified the theory that it
is indeed an enhanced greenhouse effect that is causing the world to
warm. The planet has experienced the largest
increase in surface temperature over the last
century. Between 1906 and 2006, the Earth’s average
14. surface temperature rose between 0.6 to 0.9 degrees Celsius; the last 50
years saw the temperature increase rate almost doubling. Sea levels have
shown a rise of about 0.17 meters during the twentieth century. The
extent of Arctic sea ice has steadily shrunk by 2.7 percent per decade
since 1978, just as world’s glaciers steadily receded.
As the world continues to consume ever more fossil fuel energy,
greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise, and with them
Earth’s temperature. The IPCC estimates that based on plausible emission
scenarios, average surface temperatures could increase between 2°C and
6°C by the end of the 21st century. Continued warming at current rates
poses serious consequences. Low-lying coastal regions, with dense
population, are especially vulnerable to climate shifts, with the poorer
countries and small island nations having the hardest time adapting. It
has been projected that by 2080, 13 to 88 million people around the
world would lose their home to floods.
15. 3
NEED
OF STUDY
The Earth's average surface temperature rose
by 0.74±0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of
warming over the last half of that period was almost
doubles that for the period as a whole (0.13±0.03 °C per decade,
versus 0.07±0.02 °C per decade). The urban heat island effect is very
small, estimated to account for less than 0.002 °C of warming per decade
since 1900. Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased
between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979,
according to satellite temperature measurements. Climate proxies show
the temperature to have been relatively stable over the one or two
thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as
the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.
Our planet is a complex ecosystem with dynamic interactions, but we all
breathe the same air and drink the same water. The issue of climate
change impacts your life no matter where you are—and it’s up to all of
us to be part of the solution.
17. 4
STATEMENT OF
PROBLEM
A LIFE SKILL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ON GLOBAL WARMING.
OBJECTIVES
There are some scientists who do not believe that there is enough
evidence to support the idea of global warming. They assert that
concerns about global warming have been blown well out of proportion
by the media. At the same time, other scientists assert that there is
sufficient evidence to suggest that industrial activities, automobile
emissions, and technological pollutants may eventually result in
dangerous (and even deadly) trends in the overall global climate. This
PROJECT will attempt to address this concern by analyzing some of the
scientific studies that have been published in major meteorology
journals.
18. 5
ANALYSIS &
INTERPRETATION
Global warming refers to an
unequivocal and continuing rise in
the average temperature of Earth's climate system. Since 1971, 90% of
the warming has occurred in the oceans. Despite the oceans' dominant
role in energy storage, the term "global warming" is also used to refer to
increases in average temperature of the air and sea at Earth's surface.
Since the early 20th century, the global air and sea surface temperature
has increased about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), with about two-thirds of the increase
occurring since 1980. Each of the last three decades has been
successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade
since 1850.
Scientific understanding of the cause of global warming has been
increasing. In its fourth assessment (AR4 2007) of the relevant scientific
literature, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that
scientists were more than 90% certain that most of global warming was
19. being caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse
gases produced by human activities. In 2010 that finding was recognized
by the national science academies of all major industrialized
nations. Affirming these findings in 2013, the IPCC stated that the largest
driver of global warming is carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil
fuel combustion, cement production, and land use changes such
as deforestation. Its 2013 report states Human influence has been
detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the
global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea
level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. This evidence for
human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely (95-100%)
that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century.
—IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers Climate model projections
were summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicated
that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to
rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 5.2 °F) for their lowest emissions
scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C (4.3 to 11.5 °F) for their highest. The ranges of
these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to
greenhouse gas concentration Future
20. 6
Climate change and associated impacts will vary from region to
region around the globe. The effects of an increase in global
temperature include a rise in sea levels and a change in the amount and
pattern of precipitation, as well as a probable expansion
of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic,
with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other
likely effects of the warming include more frequent extreme
weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall; ocean
acidification; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes.
Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from
decreasing crop yields and the loss of habitat from inundation.
Proposed policy responses to global warming include mitigation by
emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, and possible future climate
engineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), whose ultimate objective is
to prevent dangerous anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) climate
change. Parties to the UNFCCC have adopted a range of policies
designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to assist in adaptation
to global warming. Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in
emissions are required, and that future global warming should be limited
21. to below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to the pre-industrial level. Reports
published in 2011 by the United and the International Energy Agency
suggest that efforts as of the early 21st century to reduce emissions may
be inadequate to meet the UNFCCC's 2 °C target. Emissions of
greenhouse gases grew 2.2% per year between 2000 and 2010,
compared with 1.3% per year from 1970 to 2000.
WHAT IS HAPPENING…?
Polar bears are losing their habitats.
Sea level is rising.
Hurricanes are getting bigger and stronger.
Glaciers are melting fast.
Temperatures are going up.
22. 7
KEY CONCEPTS…
Climate change—a term used to describe
trends in the earth’s climate. For example,
scientists see that the planet’s average
temperature is rising. This affects wind and
ocean currents as well as yearly amounts of
rain and snow. Climate change affects different parts of the world in
different ways. Take a look at what is happening in the Arctic as
compared to the Hudson Valley.
Global warming—refers to the general increase in the earth’s average
temperature, which causes changes in climate patterns across the globe.
The earth’s average temperature has been increasing over the last
century. For example, there is some evidence that suggests that the U.S.
Northeast will get colder as the poles melt and cold, fresh water changes
currents near the East Coast.
Greenhouse gases—are carbon dioxide and methane, mostly caused by
human activity. Greenhouse gases are in the atmosphere, absorbing and
holding heat, which causes earth’s temperature to rise.
23. Keywords to explore and know: acidification, alternative energy,
atmosphere, biomass, carbon cycle, carbon dioxide, carbon footprint,
conservation, deforestation, ecosystems, energy, estuary, food web, fossil
fuels, fuel efficiency, greenhouse effect, habitat, Industrial Revolution,
invasive and native species, natural resources, ozone, photosynthesis,
pollution, renewable and solar energy, species migration, symbiosis,
watershed.
Look up key events in American environmental history—for example,
Earth Day, an environmental movement that was founded in 1970 when
20 million Americans protested for a healthy and sustainable
environment. Earth Day represents the hope for a clean planet.
24. 8
OBSERVED TEMPERATURE
CHANGE…
The Earth's average surface temperature rose
by 0.74±0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005.
The rate of warming over the last half of that
period was almost doubles that for the period as a whole
(0.13±0.03 °C per decade,
versus 0.07±0.02 °C per decade). The urban
heat island effect is very small, estimated to
account for less than 0.002 °C of warming per
decade since 1900. Temperatures in the lower
troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F)
per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature
measurements. Climate proxies show the temperature to have been
relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with
regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval and the Little Ice
Age.
The warming that is evident in the instrumental temperature
record is consistent with a wide range of observations, as
25. documented by many independent scientific groups. Examples
include sea level rise (water expands as it warms),widespread melting of
snow and ice, increased heat content of the oceans,
increased humidity, and the earlier timing of spring events, e.g., the
flowering of plants. The probability that these changes could have
occurred by chance is virtually zero.
Recent estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
and the National Climatic Data Center show that 2005 and 2010 tied for
the planet's warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental
measurements became available in the late 19th century, exceeding 1998
by a few hundredths of a degree.
9
Estimates by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) show
2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998 with 2003
and 2010 tied for third warmest year, however, "the
26. error estimate for individual years ... is at least ten times larger than the
differences between these three years." The World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) WMO statement on the status of the global climate
in 2010 explains that, "The 2010 nominal value of +0.53 °C ranks just
ahead of those of 2005 (+0.52 °C) and 1998 (+0.51 °C), although the
differences between the three years are not statistically
significant..." Every year from 1986 to 2013 has seen annual average
global land and ocean surface temperatures above the 1961–1990
average.
Surface temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because global
temperatures are affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO),
and the strongest El Niño in the past century occurred during that
year. Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay
long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in
surface temperature from 2002 to 2009--which has been dubbed
the global warming hiatus by the media and some scientists, is
consistent with such an episode. 2010 was also an El Niño year. On the
low swing of the oscillation, 2011 as a La Nina year was cooler but it was
still the 11th warmest year since records began in 1880. Of the 13
warmest years since 1880, 11 were the years from 2001 to
2011. Over the more recent record, 2011 was the warmest
La Niña year in the period from 1950 to 2011, and was
27. close to 1997 which was not at the lowest point of the cycle.
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures
have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per
decade against 0.13 °C per decade). Ocean temperatures increase more
slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat
capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by
evaporation. The northern hemisphere is also naturally warmer than
the southern hemisphere mainly because of meridional heat transport in
the oceans which has a differential of about 0.9 pet watts
northwards, with an additional contribution from the albino differences
between the Polar Regions.
10
Since the beginning of industrialization the interhemispheric temperature
difference has increased due to melting of sea ice and snow in the
28. North. Average arctic temperatures have been increasing at almost twice
the rate of the rest of the world in the past 100 years; however arctic
temperatures are also highly variable. Although more greenhouse gases
are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not
contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse
gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect
effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to
changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if
greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of
about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.
29. 11
HOW MUCH HAS THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISEN IN
THE LAST 100 YEARS?
Graph showing rise in global mean temperature, esp. after 1975
Global average temperature since 1880. This graph from NOAA shows
the annual trend in average global air temperature in degrees Celsius,
through December 2013. For each year, the range of uncertainty is
indicated by the gray vertical bars. The blue line tracks the changes in
the trend over time. Click here or on the image to enlarge. (Image
courtesy NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.)
Averaged over all land and ocean surfaces, temperatures warmed roughly
1.53°F (0.85ºC) from 1880 to 2012, according to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (see page 3
of the IPCC's Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
30. Basis, Summary for Policymakers - PDF). Because oceans tend to warm
and cool more slowly than land areas, continents have warmed the most.
In the Northern Hemisphere, where most of Earth's land mass is located,
the three decades from 1983 to 2012 were likely the warmest 30-year
period of the last 1400 years, according to the IPCC.
The graph above clearly shows the variability of global temperature over
various time intervals (such as year to year or between decades) as well
as the long-term increase since 1880. The full Working Group 1 report, to
be finalized in early 2014, is addressing in detail the slowdown observed
in the rate of warming since the late 1990s. (For more, see the FAQ
entry: "Hasn't Earth been cooling since 1998?")
There are slight differences in global records between groups at NCDC,
NASA, and the University of East Anglia. Each group calculates global
temperature year by year, using slightly different techniques. However,
analyses from all three groups point to the decade between 2000 and
2009 as the hottest since modern records began more than a century
ago. Temperatures in the 2010s have been running slightly warmer still.
Contiguous U.S. Temperature, January-December, since 1895
Average temperature for the contiguous 48 U.S. states from 1895
through 2013. The red line is the 12-month average for each year. The
green line is a calculation of the trend during each decade. The blue line
31. shows the trend over the last century of records. The gray line is flat
because it is a simple average for the entire period. Click here or on the
image to enlarge. (Image courtesy NOAA's National Climatic Data
Center.)
11
WHAT ABOUT THE UNITED STATES?
The year 2013 tied with 1980 as the 37th warmest in 119 years of data
for the contiguous 48 U.S. states, according to the National Climatic Data
Center (NCDC). This follows the record warmth of 2012, which was
substantially warmer—a full degree Fahrenheit (0.6°C)—than any other
year since national records began in 1895. The U.S. warming rate of
about 1.3°F (0.72°C) per century (blue line in the graph at bottom right)
is roughly comparable to the global rate of warming (see above).
Despite some cooler years from 2008 to 2010, the decade as a whole
(2000–2009) was the nation's warmest on record, with an average
temperature of 54.0°F. In contrast, the 1990s averaged 53.6°F, and the
1930s averaged 53.4°F.
The first four years of this decade (2010–2013) were slightly cooler on
average than 2000–2009 for the United States, with an average of 53.5°F.
32. The United States covers only about 2% of the globe's total surface, so
there can be noticeable differences at times between U.S. and world
temperature trends. Overall, global readings this decade are running
warmer than in the 2000s.
33. 12
CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING…
1. Global Warming Cause: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel
burning power plants
Our ever increasing addiction to electricity from coal burning power
plants releases enormous amounts of carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere. 40% of U.S. CO2 emissions come from electricity
production, and burning coal accounts for 93% of emissions from the
electric utility industry. Every day, more electric gadgets flood the market,
and without widespread alternative energy sources, we are highly
dependent on burning coal for our personal and commercial electrical
supply.
34.
35. 13
2. Global Warming Cause: Carbon dioxide emissions from burning
gasoline for transportation
Our modern car culture and appetite for globally sourced goods is
responsible for about 33% of emissions in the U.S. With our population
growing at an alarming rate, the demand for more cars and consumer
goods means that we are increasing the use of fossil fuels for
transportation and manufacturing. Our consumption is outpacing our
discoveries of ways to mitigate the effects, with no end in sight to our
massive consumer culture.
36. 14
3. Global Warming Cause: Methane emissions
from animals, agriculture such as rice paddies, and from Arctic sea
beds
Methane is another extremely potent greenhouse gas, ranking right
behind CO2. When organic matter is broken down by bacteria under
oxygen-starved conditions (anaerobic decomposition) as in rice paddies,
methane is produced. The process also takes place in the intestines of
herbivorous animals, and with the increase in the amount of
concentrated livestock production, the levels of methane released into
the atmosphere is increasing. Another source of methane is methane
clathrate, a compound containing large amounts of methane trapped in
the crystal structure of ice. As methane escapes from the Arctic seabed,
the rate of global warming will increase significantly.
37.
38. 15
4. Global Warming Cause: Deforestation, especially tropical forests for
wood, pulp, and farmland
The use of forests for fuel (both wood and for charcoal) is one cause of
deforestation, but in the first world, our appetite for wood and paper
products, our consumption of livestock grazed on former forest land, and
the use of tropical forest lands for commodities like palm oil plantations
contributes to the mass deforestation of our world. Forests remove and
store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and this deforestation
releases large amounts of carbon, as well as reducing the amount of
carbon capture on the planet.
39.
40. 16
5. Global Warming Cause: Increase in usage of chemical fertilizers on
croplands
In the last half of the 20th century, the use of chemical fertilizers (as
opposed to the historical use of animal manure) has risen dramatically.
The high rate of application of nitrogen-rich fertilizers has effects on the
heat storage of cropland (nitrogen oxides have 300 times more heat-
trapping capacity per unit of volume than carbon dioxide) and the run-
off of excess fertilizers creates ‘dead-zones’ in our oceans. In addition to
these effects, high nitrate levels in groundwater due to over-fertilization
are cause for concern for human health.
41.
42. 17
6. Global Warming Effect: Rise in sea levels worldwide
Scientists predict an increase in sea levels worldwide due to the melting
of two massive ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, especially on the
East coast of the U.S. However, many nations around the world will
experience the effects of rising sea levels, which could displace millions
of people. One nation, the Maldives, is already looking for a new home,
thanks to rising sea levels.
43. 18
7. Global Warming Effect: More killer storms
The severity of storms such as hurricanes and cyclones is increasing, and
research published in Nature found:
“Scientists have come up with the firmest evidence so far that global
warming will significantly increase the intensity of the most extreme
storms worldwide. The maximum wind speeds of the strongest tropical
cyclones have increased significantly since 1981, according to research
published in Nature this week. And the upward trend, thought to be
44. driven by rising ocean temperatures, is unlikely to stop at any time
soon.”
45. 19
8. Global Warming Effect: Massive crop failures
According to recent research, there is a 90% chance that 3 billion people
worldwide will have to choose between moving their families to milder
climes and going hungry due to climate change within 100 years.
“Climate change is expected to have the most severe impact on water
supplies. “Shortages in future are likely to threaten food production,
reduce sanitation, and hinder economic development and damage
ecosystems. It causes more violent swings between floods and
droughts.”" – Guardian: Global warming causes 300,000 deaths a year
46. 20
9. Global Warming Effect: Widespread extinction of species
According to research published in Nature, by 2050, rising temperatures
could lead to the extinction of more than a million species. And because
we can’t exist without a diverse population of species on Earth, this is
scary news for humans.
This 6th mass extinction is really just a continuation of the Holocene
extinction which began at the end of the last ice age and has resulted in
the extinction of nearly all of the Earth’s mega fauna animals, largely as a
result of human-expansion.
47. “Climate change now represents at least as great a threat to the number
of species surviving on Earth as habitat-destruction and modification.”
Chris Thomas, conservation biologist at the University of Leeds
Widespread species loss and lists of endangered species just keep
growing. This is a concerning matter on many fronts.
48. 21
10. Global Warming Effect: Disappearance of coral reefs
A report on coral reefs from WWF says that in a worst case scenario,
coral populations will collapse by 2100 due to increased temperatures
and ocean acidification. The ‘bleaching’ of corals from small but
prolonged rises in sea temperature is a severe danger for ocean
ecosystems, and many other species in the oceans rely on coral reefs for
their survival.
“Despite the oceans’ immensity — 71 per cent of the Earth’s
surface with an average depth of almost 4km (2½m) — there are
49. indications that it is approaching its tipping point. For reefs, warming
waters and acidification are closing in like a pair of jaws that threaten to
make them the first global ecosystem to disappear.” – Times
Online: 21st-century Noah’s Ark needed to save coral reefs from
extinction
50. 22
GREEN HOUSE GASES…
The greenhouse effect is the
process by
which absorption and emission
of infrared radiation by gases
in a planet's atmosphere warm
its lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in
1824, discovered in 1860 by John Tyndall, was first investigated
quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896, and was developed in the
1930s through 1960s by Guy Stewart Calendar. Annual world greenhouse
gas emissions, in 2005, by sector.
Bubble diagram showing the share of global cumulative energy-related
carbon dioxide emissions for major emitters between 1890-2007.
On earth, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean
warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F). Without the Earth's atmosphere,
the temperature across almost the entire surface of the Earth would be
below freezing. The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which
causes about 36–70% of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2),
which causes 9–26%; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9%; and ozone (O3),
which causes 3–7%. Clouds also affect the radiation balance
51. through cloud forcing similar to greenhouse gases. Human activity since
the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere, leading to increased radioactive forcing from CO2,
methane, troposphere ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. According to work
published in 2007, the concentrations of CO2 and methane have
increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750. These levels are
much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period
for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores. Less direct
geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last
seen about 20 million years ago. Fossil fuel burning has produced about
three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past
20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-
use, particularly deforestation.
23
Estimates of global CO2emissions in 2011 from
fossil fuel combustion, including cement production
52. and gas flaring, was 34.8 billion tones (9.5 ± 0.5 PgC), an increase of 54%
above emissions in 1990. Coal burning was responsible for 43% of the
total emissions, oil 34%, gas 18%, cement 4.9% and gas flaring 0.7% In
May 2013, it was reported that readings for CO2 taken at the world's
primary benchmark site in Mauna Loasurpassed 400 ppm. According to
professor Brian Hoskins, this is likely the first time CO2 levels have been
this high for about 4.5 million years. Over the last three decades of the
20th century, gross domestic product per capita and population
growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas
emissions. CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of
fossil fuels and land-use change. Emissions can be attributed to different
regions, e.g., see the figure opposite. Attribution of emissions due to
land-use change is a controversial issue.
Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of
greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain
economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments. In most
scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few,
emissions are reduced. Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not
limit carbon emissions in the 21st century. Emission scenarios, combined
with modeling of the carbon cycle, have been used to produce estimates
of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in
the future. Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, models suggest
53. that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range
between 541 and 970 ppm. This is an increase of 90–250% above the
concentration in the year 1750.
The popular media and the public often confuse global warming
with ozone depletion, i.e., the destruction of stratospheric ozone by
chlorofluorocarbons. Although there are a few areas of linkage, the
relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone
has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while
increased troposphere ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.
54. 24
PARTICULATES AND SOOT…
Ship tracks over the Atlantic Ocean on the east
coast of the United States. The climatic impacts
from particula
te
forcing could
have a large effect on climate through
the indirect effect.
Global dimming, a gradual reduction
in the amount of global
direct irradiance at the Earth's surface,
was observed from 1961 until at least 1990. The main cause of this
dimming is particulates produced by volcanoes and human
made pollutants, which exerts a cooling effect by increasing the
reflection of incoming sunlight. The effects of the products of fossil fuel
combustion – CO2 and aerosols – have partially offset one another in
recent decades, so that net warming has been due to the increase in
55. non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane. Radioactive forcing due to
particulates is temporally limited due to wet deposition which causes
them to have an atmospheric lifetime of one week. Carbon dioxide has a
lifetime of a century or more, and as such, changes in particulate
concentrations will only delay climate changes due to carbon dioxide.
Black carbon is second only to carbon dioxide for its contribution to
global warming. In addition to their direct effect by scattering and
absorbing solar radiation, particulates have indirect effects on the Earth's
radiation budget. Sulfates act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead
to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets.
These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with
fewer and larger droplets, known as the Twomey effect. This effect also
causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of
raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight,
known as the Albrecht effect. Indirect effects are most noticeable in
marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect
on convective clouds. Indirect effects of particulates
represent the largest uncertainty in radiative
56. forcing.Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether it is
airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot directly absorbs solar radiation,
which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with
high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface
warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric
brown clouds. When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic
regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the surface. The
influences of particulates, including black carbon, are most pronounced
in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of
greenhouse gases are dominant in the extra tropics and southern
hemisphere.
57. 26
SOLAR ACTIVITY…
Since 1978, output from the Sun has been
precisely measured by satellites. These
measurements indicate that the Sun's output
has not increased since 1978, so the warming
during the past 30 years cannot be attributed
to an increase in solar energy reaching the
Earth.
Climate models have been used to examine the role of the sun in recent
climate change. Models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming
observed in recent decades when they only take into account variations
in solar output and volcanic activity. Models are, however, able to
simulate the observed 20th century changes in temperature when they
include all of the most important external forcings, including human
influences and natural forcing.
Another line of evidence against the sun having caused recent climate
change comes from looking at how temperatures at different levels in
the Earth's atmosphere have changed. Models and observations show
that greenhouse warming results in warming of the lower atmosphere
(called the troposphere) but cooling of the upper atmosphere (called
58. the stratosphere). Depletion of the ozone layer by
chemical refrigerants has also resulted in a strong cooling effect in the
stratosphere. If the sun were responsible for observed warming, warming
of both the troposphere and stratosphere would be expected.
59. 27
MAJOR
FINDINGS
1. FLOODING IN PAKISTAN…
Flooding in Pakistan in 2010
A United Nations report raised the threat of climate change to a
whole new level on Monday, warning of sweeping consequences to
life and livelihood.
The report from the UN's intergovernmental panel on climate
change concluded that climate change was already having effects in
real time – melting sea ice and thawing permafrost in the Arctic,
killing off coral reefs in the oceans, and leading to heat waves,
heavy rains and mega-disasters.
60. And the worst was yet to come. Climate change posed a threat to
global food stocks, and to human security, the blockbuster report
said.
“Nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of
climate change,” said Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the IPCC.
Monday's report was the most sobering so far from the UN climate
panel and, scientists said, the most definitive. The report – a three
year joint effort by more than 300 scientists – grew to 2,600 pages
and 32 volumes.
28
The volume of scientific literature on the effects of climate change
has doubled since the last report, and the findings make an
increasingly detailed picture of how climate change – in tandem
with existing fault lines such as poverty and inequality – poses a
much more direct threat to life and livelihood.
This was reflected in the language. The summary
mentioned the word “risk” more than 230 times,
compared to just over 40 mentions seven years ago,
61. according to a count by the Red Cross.
At the forefront of those risks was the potential for humanitarian
crisis. The report catalogued some of the disasters that have been
visited around the planet since 2000: killer heat waves in Europe,
wildfires in Australia, and deadly floods in Pakistan.
“We are now in an era where climate change isn't some kind of
future hypothetical,” said Chris Field, one of the two main authors of
the report.
Those extreme weather events would take a disproportionate toll on
poor, weak and elderly people. The scientists said governments did
not have systems in place to protect those populations. “This would
really be a severe challenge for some of the poorest communities
and poorest countries in the world,” said Maggie Opondo, a
geographer from the University of Nairobi and one of the authors.
The warning signs about climate change and extreme weather
events have been accumulating over time. But this report struck out
on relatively new ground by drawing a clear line connecting climate
change to food scarcity, and conflict.
The report said climate change had already cut into the global food
supply. Global crop yields were beginning to decline – especially for
wheat – raising doubts as to whether production could keep up
with population growth.
62. “It has now become evident in some parts of the world that the
green revolution has reached a plateau,” Pachauri said.
The future looks even grimmer. Under some scenarios, climate
change could lead to dramatic drops in global wheat production as
well as reductions in maize.
29
"Climate change is acting as a brake. We need yields to grow to
meet growing demand, but already climate change is slowing those
yields," said Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton professor and an
author of the report.
Other food sources are also under threat. Fish catches in some areas
of the tropics are projected to fall by between 40% and 60%,
according to the report.
The report also connected climate change to
rising food prices and political instability, for
63. instance the riots in Asia and Africa after food price shocks in 2008.
"The impacts are already evident in many places in the world. It is
not something that is [only] going to happen in the future," said
David Lobell, a professor at Stanford University's centre for food
security, who devised the models.
"Almost everywhere you see the warming effects have a negative
effect on wheat and there is a similar story for corn as well. These
are not yet enormous effects but they show clearly that the trends
are big enough to be important," Lobell said.
The report acknowledged that there were a few isolated areas
where a longer growing season had been good for farming. But it
played down the idea that there may be advantages to climate
change as far as food production is concerned.
Overall, the report said, "Negative impacts of climate change on
crop yields have been more common than positive impacts."
Scientists and campaigners pointed to the finding as a defining
feature of the report.
The report also warned for the first time that climate change,
combined with poverty and economic shocks, could lead to war and
drive people to leave their homes.
With the catalogue of risks, the scientists said they hoped to
persuade governments and the public that it was past time to cut
64. greenhouse gas emissions and to plan for sea walls and other
infrastructure that offer some protection for climate change.
“The one message that comes out of this is the world has to adapt
and the world has to mitigate,” said Pachauri.
65. 30
2. HONK KONG FREAK HAIL BLACK STORM...
Hong Kong was battered by hail stones the size of golf balls and intense
“black rain” in a storm that might serve as tangible proof of the effects
of global warming. “Black rain” is a weather warning term used by the
Hong Kong Observatory to describe rain that falls at over seven
centimeters per hour. This is the earliest point in the year that they have
ever issued the severe weather warning signal for
black rain, since it was first launched in 1992.The
unexpected nature of the storm has led to many
66. speculating that it is connected with the problem of climate change.
Global warming is a hot topic in the news at the moment and although
there is overwhelming scientific evidence in favor of the environmental
phenomenon, many still dispute either its existence or the extent of the
changes it is inflicting on the planet.
31
Although natural disasters are part of the Earth’s weather patterns in
recent history
there does seem to have been an increase in the frequency of such
events.
The unexpected force of the storm led to rain pouring into shopping
centers, especially in the Kowloon Tong district, with numerous videos
capturing footage of lighting and bits of roof falling through the malls.
Either due to some die hard shopping habits or because of how quickly
the storm progressed, many local Hong Kongers were still in the stores
when the water began to build up. In some places the water levels rose
67. to waist height with people half-swimming, half-wading home. The
subways were also overwhelmed with water as it ran down the escalators
and stairs into the underground and covered the entire station. There
were also numerous lightning forks with over 3,000 happening within the
space of an hour, and over 8,000 occurring in total, according to the
Hong Kong Observatory. All forms of transport were impacted with
planes, trains, buses and cars stranded or delayed as the streets filled
with water. The rain first began to fall in earnest during the final match
of the Hong Kong Rugby Sevens Tournament, with the New Zealand
team performing their shirtless haka amid sheets of water which later
turned to huge hailstones, some bigger than a fist.
Hong Kong is subject to extreme weather as part of its normal climate
however the monsoon season is generally between May and September,
with January to March being generally dry and cool. Although April does
tend to see an increase in rainfall, this type of storm is a highly unusual
case for this time of year, particularly given the strength and force it
displayed and the damage it caused.
Given the current furor over the climate change debate, this incident
seems to be more than just a random one-off to be put down to
coincidence. In 2008 both Hong Kong University and
CSR Asia reported that the country was likely to
68. experience more extreme weather more often, as a direct result of global
warming, in the near future. This recent storm certainly seems to ratify
these predictions with alarming accuracy. Unfortunately due to the sea
altitude, high density population and skyline filled with skyscrapers, Hong
Kong already stands at greater risk from flooding, heat waves, typhoons
and increased rainfall. As such the country is likely to be one of the main
victims of any changes which global warming inflicts on the planet, and
this freak storm with black rain and hail is just the first proof what awaits
them in the future.
32
There is a large quantity of evidence to show how changes in the
environment have impacted on the Asian nation. The Hong Kong
observatory has recorded a steady increase in the average temperature,
as well as a greater fluctuation in temperatures. While most people
viewing these statistics find it difficult not to indict climate change in the
cause of such environmental upset, some local customs provide
alternative explanations. A feng shui expert in the country suggested that
weather like that which Hong Kong has just witnessed can be caused by
a feeling of discontent within the population and a sign that their needs
69. are going unmet – food for thought for the government and
observatory..
The incredible weather was documented by many but the video below is
a montage of the main forms of damage the storm caused. The rather
dramatic soundtrack seems rather fitting given the unexpectedly
destructive nature of the freak storm, which saw Hong Kong engulfed in
giant hail stones and black rain, as well as suggesting how this proof of
global warming should be considered in a suitably serious manner.
70. 33
SOME STATISTICS…
1.GLOBAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY.
Line plot of global mean land-ocean temperature index, 1880 to
present, with the base period 1951-1980. The dotted black line is
the annual mean and the solid red line is the five-year mean.
The green bars show uncertainty estimates.
71.
72. 34
2.TEMPERATURE ANAMOLY OF NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE…
Graph showing roughly 1000 years of temperature in the
northern hemisphere. It is based on combined data from ice
layers, corals, trees, etc. The 20th Century's one degree
Fahrenheit warming stands out
73. 35
3.PIE CHART ON WORLD WIDE SOURCE OF CO2
EMMISSION..
Sources: Distribution to sectors for CO2, CH4 and N2O is from
EDGAR, 2000. All other GHGs are assumed to be from industrial
processes.
75. 37
SUGGETIONS
Burning fossil fuels such as natural gas, coal, oil and gasoline raises the
level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and carbon
dioxide is a major contributor to the greenhouse effect
and global warming.
You can help to reduce the demand for fossil fuels,
which in turn reduces global warming, by using energy more wisely. Here
are 10 simple actions you can take to help reduce global warming.
1. Reduce, Reuse, Recycle
Do your part to reduce waste by choosing reusable products instead of
disposables. Buying products with minimal packaging (including the
economy size when that makes sense for you) will help to reduce waste.
And whenever you can, recycle paper, plastic, newspaper, glass and
aluminum cans. If there isn't a recycling program at your workplace,
school, or in your community, ask about starting one. By recycling half of
your household waste, you can save 2,400 pounds of carbon dioxide
annually.
76. 2. Use Less Heat and Air Conditioning
Adding insulation to your walls and attic, and installing weather stripping
or caulking around doors and windows can lower your heating costs
more than 25 percent, by reducing the amount of energy you need to
heat and cool your home.
Turn down the heat while you're sleeping at night or away during the
day, and keep temperatures moderate at all times. Setting your
thermostat just 2 degrees lower in winter and higher in summer could
save about 2,000 pounds of carbon dioxide each year.
38
3. Change a Light Bulb
Wherever practical, replace regular light bulbs with
compact fluorescent light (CFL) bulbs. Replacing just one
60-watt incandescent light bulb with a CFL will save you
77. $30 over the life of the bulb. CFLs also last 10 times longer than
incandescent bulbs, use two-thirds less energy, and give off 70 percent
less heat.
If every U.S. family replaced one regular light bulb with a CFL, it would
eliminate 90 billion pounds of greenhouse gases, the same as taking 7.5
million cars off the road.
4. Drive Less and Drive Smart
Less driving means fewer emissions. Besides saving
gasoline, walking and biking are great forms of
exercise. Explore your community mass transit system,
and check out options for carpooling to work or school. When you do drive,
make sure your car is running efficiently. For example, keeping your tires
properly inflated can improve your gas mileage by more than 3 percent.
Every gallon of gas you save not only helps your budget, it also keeps 20
pounds of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.
5. Buy Energy-Efficient Products
When it's time to buy a new car, choose one that offers good gas
mileage. Home appliances now come in a range of energy-efficient
models, and compact florescent bulbs are designed to provide more
natural-looking light while using far less energy than standard light
bulbs.
78. Avoid products that come with excess packaging, especially molded
plastic and other packaging that can't be recycled. If you reduce your
household garbage by 10 percent, you can save 1,200 pounds of carbon
dioxide annually.
39
6. Use Less Hot Water
Set your water heater at 120 degrees to save energy, and wrap it in an
insulating blanket if it is more than 5 years old. Buy low-flow
showerheads to save hot water and about 350 pounds of carbon dioxide
yearly. Wash your clothes in warm or cold water to reduce your use of
hot water and the energy required to produce it. That change alone can
save at least 500 pounds of carbon dioxide annually in most households.
Use the energy-saving settings on your dishwasher and let the dishes air-
dry.
7. Use the "Off" Switch
79. Save electricity and reduce global warming by turning off lights when
you leave a room, and using only as lighter as you need. And remember
to turn off your television, video player, stereo and computer when
you're not using them.
It's also a good idea to turn off the water when you're not using it. While
brushing your teeth, shampooing the dog or washing your car, turn off
the water until you actually need it for rinsing. You'll reduce your water
bill and help to conserve a vital resource.
8. Plant a Tree
If you have the means to plant a tree, start digging. During
photosynthesis, trees and other plants absorb carbon dioxide and give
off oxygen. They are an integral part of the natural atmospheric
exchange cycle here on Earth, but there are too few of them to fully
counter the increases in carbon dioxide caused by automobile traffic,
manufacturing and other
human activities. A
single tree will absorb
approximately one ton of
carbon dioxide during
its lifetime.
