2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – February 2014
Europe:
• Consensus February GDP forecast for WE remained on 1,4% for 2014.
• The EU industrial confidence slightly deteriorated compared to last month while the consumer
confidence indicator improved once again from its December level.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany improved for the third time in succession. The
German economy made a promising start to the New Year.
• Industry is supporting the Euro area recovery. January’s manufacturing PMI climbed,
underpinned by expansions in production and new orders and the periphery performing fairly
well. On the other hand inflation remains a concern, reaching 0,7% in January. Weak price
pressure makes it harder for insolvent countries to pay down debt.
US:
• Consensus February GDP forecast for the US improved from 2,8% to 2,9% for 2014.
• The GDP outlook for 2014 has edged up on the back of the Q4 national accounts showing GDP
growth expanding by 3,2% q-o-q. Jobless rate dropped to 6,6%, but severe winter weather has
impacted negatively on employment and output. .
Japan:
• The February GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,7% to 1,6% for 2014.
• Latest data demonstrate that the economy strengthened at the end of last year. Jobless rate fell
to 3,7% in December, the lowest unemployment rate since December 2007. Still sentiment
towards the 2014 outlook is tinged with uncertainty, especially ahead of April’s consumption tax
hike.
2
| Economic Indicators |
4. 13 Q1
12 Q1
'11 Q1
'10 Q1
'09 Q1
'08 Q1
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
'07Q1
%
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
Source: Eurostat Feb 14
4
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5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
1
0,5
0
%
-0,5
-1
-1,5
-2
13 Q1
12 Q1
'11 Q1
'10 Q1
'09 Q1
'08 Q1
'07Q1
-2,5
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
Source: Eurostat Feb 14
5
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6. Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index
4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
14/1
13/1
12/1
11/1
10/1
09/1
1
08/1
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
Source: Eurostat Jan 14
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7. Eurozone inflation
Jan 15
Jul.14
Jul.13
Jan 13
Jul.12
Jan 12
July 11
Jan 11
Jul.10
Jan 10
Jul.09
Jan 14
Dec 13; 0,8
Feb.14; 0,25
ECB short-term rate
Jan 09
July 08
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5 FED rate
0,0
-0,5
Jan 08
%
Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Feb 14
7
| Economic Indicators |
8. Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate
12
11
10,7
%
10
9
8
7
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
6
Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries
Source: Eurostat Feb 14
8
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9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Industrial confidence within EU 28 deteriorated slightly in January.
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
Source: Eurostat Feb 14
9
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10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Consumer Confidence within EU 28 improved again in January.
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
-35
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
Source: Eurostat Feb 14
10
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11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
85
79,4
80
75
%
70
65
14Q1
13Q1
12Q1
11Q1
10Q1
09Q1
08Q1
07Q1
06Q1
05Q1
04Q1
60
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
Source: Eurostat Feb 14
11
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13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
The Ifo World Economic climate further brightens in Q1 2014
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Feb 14
13
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14. Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate
The economic climate for Europe brightens significantly again in Q1 2014.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Feb 14
14
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15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Feb 14
15
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16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Dec 13
16
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17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Dec 13
17
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18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Feb 14
18
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19. Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
6 months expectations
Business situation
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
Jan 08
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany in January improved for the third time in
succession. Assessments of the current business situation rose to their highest level since
June 2012. Expectations regarding future business developments reached their most
optimistic level in almost three years. The German economy made a promising start to the
New Year.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
Source: IFO Feb 14
19
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20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany in January improved for the third time in
succession. Assessments of the current business situation rose to their highest level since
June 2012. Expectations regarding future business developments reached their most
optimistic level in almost three years. The German economy made a promising start to the
New Year.
Source: IFO Feb 14
20
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21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The business climate within the printing industry decreased slightly from 0 to -2 in January.
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Feb 14, bundesverband druck und medien
21
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22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Business Development at German Printers – January 2014:
The assessment of the current business situation in the printing
industry only reached 9% in January, significantly below the 25%
reached in December. Still, such a slump after Christmas season has
been observed already in previous years.
The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – remains rather clouded, reaching -2% after 0% in the
previous month.
The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained negative
at -13%, the same level as in the same month of last year and up from
-23% in the previous month.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Feb 14, bundesverband druck und medien
22
| Economic Indicators |
![Economic Indicators
Last update 14.2.2014
1
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