Cyclone Case Study Odisha 1999 Super Cyclone in India.
An Assessment of Agoforestry's Role - Climate Change
1. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Gary Bentrup, Michele Schoeneberger
(retired)
USDA National Agroforestry Center
Toral Patel-Weynand
Sustainable Forest Management Research
72nd SWCS International Annual
Conference
August 2, 2017 Madison, WI
3. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Playing with Loaded Dice
2013
2012
4. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Addressing Climate Variability & Change
Searching for Synergistic Solutions
Policymakers Farmers & Ranchers
5. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Synthesis of the
Science
Primary Contributors:
3 USDA Agencies
3 NGO’s
13 U.S. & Mexican Universities
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
6. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Forest Farming Riparian Forest Buffers
Windbreaks
Alley Cropping
Silvopasture
Special Applications
7. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Major climate change functions
Agroforestry functions that support climate change
adaptation
Reduce threats & enhance
resilience
Alter microclimate to reduce impact of extreme weather
events on crop production
Alter microclimate to maintain quality and quantity of forage
production
Alter microclimate to reduce livestock stress
Provide greater habitat diversity to support organisms (e.g.,
native pollinators, beneficial insects)
Provide greater structural and functional diversity to
maintain and protect natural resource services
Create diversified production opportunities to reduce risk
under fluctuating climate
Facilitate plant species
movement to more favorable
conditions
Assist in plant species migration through planting decisions
Allow species to migrate to
more favorable conditions
Provide travel corridors for species migration
8. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Major climate change functions
Agroforestry functions that support climate change
mitigation
Sequester C Accumulate C in woody biomass
Accumulate C in soil
Reduce GHG emissions Reduce fossil fuel consumption:
o With reduced equipment runs in areas with trees
o With reduced farmstead heating and cooling
Reduce CO2 emissions from farmstead structures
Reduce N2O emissions:
o By greater nutrient uptake through plant diversity
o By reduced N fertilizer application in tree component
Enhance forage quality, thereby reducing CH4
9. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Human Dimensions of Agroforestry
10. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Change in climate
Consequences for
tree growth and health
Higher average winter temperature
Winter chilling requirements might not be met
Reduction in winter mortality of insect pests
Higher temperature in early spring
Earlier budburst and increased damages by late
frosts
Increased frequency of drought Reduced growth rate and increased mortality
Increased frequency of high or
extreme temperature episodes
Increased susceptibility to damaging effects of pests
Increased frequency of floods
Waterlogging of soils; killing of tree roots
11. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Adaptable Plant Materials
Field evaluation trials
https://www.trees4expenses.com
Models
Seed sourcing
Bower et al. 2014; available at <www.fs.fed.
us/wwetac/threat_map/SeedZones_Intro.html
Natural Areas Journal 35(1):122-133
American Linden
12. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Current 2050 2080
1. Norway spruce (Picea abies) Eastern redcedar Pecan
2. Silver maple (Acer saccharinum) Pecan Eastern redcedar
3. Northern red oak (Quercus rubra) Hackberry Silver maple
4. Sugar maple (A. saccharum) White oak Hackberry
5. Hackberry (Celtis occidentalis) Silver maple Sycamore
6. American linden (Tilia americana) Northern red oak White oak
7. Eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana) Sycamore Northern red oak
8. White oak (Q. alba) Sugar maple Sugar maple
9. Sycamore (Platanus occidentalis) Norway spruce American linden
10. Pecan (Carya illinoinensus) American linden Norway spruce
Ten tree species ranked in order of suitability for
planting in the Chicago, IL area
Red = no longer suitable based on climate envelope modeling
Bell, A.C. 2014. Trees for 2050. Glencoe, IL: Chicago Botanic Garden.
http://www.chicagobotanic.org/plantinfo/tree_alternatives.
13. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Case Study:
Prairie States
Forestry Project
Images from U.S. Forest Service
14. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
State Journal Register May 17, 2017
2o C increase could increase wind
erosion by 15-18%
Lee et al. 1996
Pu and Ginoux
15. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Windbreak Assessment & Research
Crop
Average yield
increase (%)
Potatoes 6
Dry beans 10
Maize 12
Soybeans 15
Tomatoes 16
Grass hay 20
Winter wheat 23
Barley 25
Raspberry 40
Snap beans 40
Millet 44
Strawberry 56
Assess crop yield benefits from windbreaks
GIS mapping and monitoring of windbreaks
Windbreak greenhouse gas estimation
16. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Trees Outside Forests Image-Based Inventory
National
Agroforestry
Center
Kearny County,
KS
North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, & Kansas
High res. Output (1 m)
Kansas completed
17. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Windbreak Assessment & Research
Assess crop yield benefits from windbreaks
GIS mapping and monitoring of windbreaks
Windbreak greenhouse gas estimation
18. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Windbreak Education
& Outreach
National Windbreak Technology Training
Great Plains Windbreak Action Plan
19. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Case Study:
Coldwater
Fisheries
62% estimated decline in
coldwater fish habitat by
2100.
20. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Case Study:
Washington
CREP
Image courtesy of WhatsUpStream.com
21. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Case Study:
Southeast
Silvopasture
Shading has shown to increase
forage quality by increasing protein
content while reducing fiber.
Cattle provided with shade reached
their target body weight 20 days
earlier
Mitigate risk by providing short-term
and long-term income sources.
2014 National Climate Assessmen
Image courtesy of USDA National Agroforestry Cente
22. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Tools & Resources
nac.unl.edu
23. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Gary Bentrup
U.S. Forest Service
gbentrup@fs.fed.us
https://nac.unl.edu
National
Agroforestry
Center
Mitigation Adaptation
24. United States Department of Agriculture
National Agroforestry Center
Selected References
Anderson, D.R. 1997. Corridor use, feeding ecology, and habitat relationships of black bears in a fragmented landscape in Louisiana. Knoxville, TN: University of
Tennessee. 124 p.
Beddington, J.R.; Asaduzzaman, M.; Clark, M.E. [et al.]. 2012. What next for agriculture after Durban? Science. 335(6066): 289–290.
Cubbage, F., Balmelli, G., Bussoni, A., Noellemeyer, E., Pachas, A.N., Fassola, H., Colcombet, L., Rossner, B., Frey, G., Dube, F. and de Silva, M.L., 2012.
Comparing silvopastoral systems and prospects in eight regions of the world. Agroforestry Systems, 86(3), pp.303-314.
Dimitriou, I., G. Busch, S. Jacobs, P. Schmidt-Walter, and N. Lamersdorf. 2009. A review of the impacts of short rotation coppice cultivation on water issues.
Landbauforschung Volkenrode 59:197–206
Feldhake, C.M., 2002. Forage frost protection potential of conifer silvopastures. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 112(2), pp.123-130.
Hintz, D., 1984. Enhancing the wildlife values associated with windbreaks. USDA Soil Conservation Service Tech. Note 190-LI-4, p.10..
Kallenbach, R.L.; Kerley, M.S.; Bishop-Hurley, G.J. 2006. Cumulative forage production, forage quality and livestock performance from an annual ryegrass and
cereal rye mixture in a pine-walnut silvopasture. Agroforestry Systems. 66(1): 43–53.
Lee, J.J.; Phillips, D.L.; Dodson, R.F. 1996. Sensitivity of the U.S. corn belt to climate change and elevated CO2: II. soil erosion and organic carbon. Agricultural
Systems. 52(4): 503–521.
Mitlöhner, F.M.; Morrow, J.L.; Dailey, J.W. [et al.]. 2001. Shade and water misting effects on behavior, physiology, performance, and carcass traits of heat-
stressed feedlot cattle. Journal of Animal Science. 79(9): 2327–2335.
Morgan, J.A.; Mosier, A.R.; Milchunas, D.G.; LeCain, D.R. [et al.]. 2004. CO2 enhances productivity, alters species composition, and reduces digestibility of
shortgrass steppe vegetation. Ecological Applications. 14(1): 208–219.
Nearing, M.A.; Pruski, F.F.; O’Neal, M.R. 2004. Expected climate change impacts on soil erosion rates: a review. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation. 59(1):
43–50.
Pu, B.; Ginoux, P. 2017. Projection American dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change. Scientific Reports. 7:5553.
Ricketts, T.H.; Regetz, J.; Steffan‐Dewenter, I. [et al.]. 2008. Landscape effects on crop pollination services: Are there general patterns? Ecology Letters. 11(5):
499–515
Rivest, D.; Lorente, M.; Olivier, A.; Messier, C. 2013. Soil biochemical properties and microbial resilience in agroforestry systems: effects on wheat growth under
controlled drought and flooding conditions. Science of the Total Environment. 463(1): 51–60.
Stamps, W.T.; Linit, M.J. 1998. Plant diversity and arthropod communities: implications for temperate agroforestry. Agroforestry Systems. 39(1): 73–89.
Hinweis der Redaktion
Long-lived aspect makes species selection pretty important.
Key Findings
Agroforestry species currently used in a specific region may not tolerate stresses brought on by future climate conditions, thus jeopardizing long-term benefits of these practices.
Successful agroforestry practices may require the introduction of new species and/or cultivars that are better adapted to both current and future climatic conditions.
Models, field evaluation trials, and seed sourcing will likely be required to develop suitable species and cultivars.
Key Information Needs
Better understanding of the impact of future climate conditions and interrelated stressors on agroforestry species.
Improved modeling for predicting species suitability under future climatic regimes.
Refined plant species options for agroforestry practices in different regions of the United States under climate change
During the great "Dust Bowl" of the 1930's on the Great Plains, millions of acres of farm land were literally being blown away. In 1935, President Franklin D. Roosevelt initiated the Prairie States Forestry Project to combat the severe soil erosion. For the next eight years, the U.S. Forest Service, working with the Works Progress Administration (WPA) and Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) planted windbreaks throughout the Great Plains states of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Although WPA and CCC workers planted the trees and shrubs, landowners were responsible for their long-term care and maintenance of the windbreaks. Nearly 220 million seedlings were planted creating 18,600 miles of windbreaks occupying 240,000 acres on 30,000 farms (Williams 2005).
The Prairie States Forestry Project represents one of the largest and most-focused efforts of the U.S. government to address an environmental problem and is considered by some as a potential model for an effective climate change strategy (Sauer 2010). Viewed by modern standards, the project was conceived, designed, and implemented in a short period of time and incorporated effective top-down and bottoms-up management styles.
Healthy soils emphasis----no good if we don’t keep the soil in place.
http://www.sj-r.com/news/20170517/dust-storm-fatality-identified-as-james-brunson-53-of-chatham
http://www.weather.gov/ilx/May_17_Dust_Storm
In 2013 the National Agroforestry Center initiated a Great Plains project to document the impact of windbreaks on crop yields under today’s farming practices. The project began without any funding and included federal, state and local partners in seven states. The basic premise was to contact producers and ask them for the data from their onboard GPS-based yield monitors that are now found on modern harvesting equipment. In 2015 NAC along with other USDA partners, including R2 USFS and NRCS, provided financial support to Kansas State University to accelerate the acquisition and analyzing of producer yield information. The NRCS is in the process of finalizing a grant of $115,000 to procure yield data from more producers and from a greater geographic area. The additional data will reduce the statistical variability and increase the regional relevance of this project. Kansas is working with other five other Great Plains states in this assessment.
In 2013 the National Agroforestry Center initiated a Great Plains project to document the impact of windbreaks on crop yields under today’s farming practices. The project began without any funding and included federal, state and local partners in seven states. The basic premise was to contact producers and ask them for the data from their onboard GPS-based yield monitors that are now found on modern harvesting equipment. In 2015 NAC along with other USDA partners, including R2 USFS and NRCS, provided financial support to Kansas State University to accelerate the acquisition and analyzing of producer yield information. The NRCS is in the process of finalizing a grant of $115,000 to procure yield data from more producers and from a greater geographic area. The additional data will reduce the statistical variability and increase the regional relevance of this project. Kansas is working with other five other Great Plains states in this assessment.
On February 7 – 9, 2017 the National Agroforestry Center teamed up with State forestry agencies to conduct a meeting in Manhattan, Kansas to develop a Great Plains Windbreak Action Plan. The 40 participants laid the foundation for a region-wide windbreak action plan. The goal is to enhance the use of windbreaks in supporting profitable and resilient farms and ranches and conserving natural resources across the region. Representatives from seven states, including State forestry and agriculture agencies, NRCS, ARS, and Forest Service, and two climate hubs, as well as the private sector identified windbreak-related needs and goals.
Shade provided by riparian forest buffers reduces solar radiation received by a stream, leading to lower water temperatures. In the Tucannon River in WA, spring Chinook salmon runs hit a low of 95 fish in 1995 and juvenile salmonids were absent in lower reaches of the river. Since 1999, over 1,100 acres of riparian forest buffers and other restoration measures have been implemented, reducing summer water temperatures by about 10o F. Returning Chinook salmon adults have increased in number to 1,777 in 2015.