This presentation was held by Anders Malmer from SLU Global at the World Food Day 2016 event in Stockholm.

1. Climate is changing,
food and agriculture must too
Anders Malmer
Director SLU Global
Professor
Introducing talk for World Food Day Seminar 14th October 2016

2. It is not that there isn’t reason already to
consider change in food and agriculture…

3. Is there even enough land to produce the
needed food and fibers?
• Large insecurities about
productivity and demand
to make estimations.
• Bold estimations between
0.3 – 0.8 billion additional
hectares needed until
2030.
(Sweden=0.045 billion ha)
• There might be land, but
not where people lives
and...
Sten Nilsson, KSLA 2012
Million ha, source: Lambin &
Mayfroidt 2011

4. …there may be a planetary safe limit for
expansion of arable land (on the cost of
forests and other ecosystems)
 Effect on deforestation and thus
on water resources and
atmospheric circulation
 Loss of biodiversity
 …
Johan Rockström et al.

5. Is the restoration of degraded lands an
alternative to open new arable land?
There are 2 billion hectares degraded forest land that can be
restored . Most of this land is indeed where people live.
(World Resources Institute)

6. Melt of Greenland ice
shelf
Boreal forest dieback
Atlantic deep water
formation
Dieback of Amazon
rainforest
Change in ENSO
amplitude of frequency
Instability of
West Antarctic ice shelf
Arctic sea-ice loss
Permafrost and tundra
loss?
Boreal forest dieback
Climate change –induced
ozone hole?
Indian monsoon
chaotic multistability
Sahara greening
West African monsoon
shift
Changes in Antarctic
bottom water formation?
Global Tipping Elements

7. Different base for challenges
in different regions and countries!
But are there common key components in
development between production and consumer
demand?
For increased productivity, climate adaptation and
fair & sustainable value chains
 Restoring productivity, water-holding capacity and groundwater recharge
 Multiple crops and outcomes for resilience
 Combatting (new) pests /reducing use of chemicals and antibiotics
 Genetic improvement (productivity and pest resistance)
 Sustainable energy and nutrient management in production
 Infrastructure for value chains and food storage etc.
 Market development for ”sound” roles of producers and consumers
 Tracability for consumer demands

8. Partly common drivers and inhibitors
for biobased development in Sweden
and in low income countries in Africa?
Education and research
For consumers, technical training entrepeneurship and
evidence based development (national research capacity)
Globally ageing farmers and faiding intrest among youth
A growing urban imperative blocking biobased development
The ”good connection” between producer and consumer
In the south: develop from scratch
In Sweden: production is sofisticated, but do we have a
food-strategy?

9. Thanks for your intrest / Questions?
Anders.Malmer@slu.se
www.slu.se/slu-global
Thank you for listening