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SSA agriculture, food systems & poverty reduction
1. Agriculture, Food Systems & Poverty
Reduction in sub-Sahara Africa:
Urban Diet Transitions & Sustainable Food Systems
Ruerd Ruben
LEI - Wageningen UR
2. Key Messages
1. Delayed global transformation hinders market development
๏ food expenditures & import dependency
2. Rapid demographic growth & urbanization
๏ Dietary transition & Double burden of maltnutrition
3. Supermarket expansion & procurement regimes
๏ Outsourcing from agro-enterpreneurs
4. How to overcome agricultural stagnation?
๏ Focus on risks, governance & labour productivity
3. Africa in the World
Indicator Share
Population (2015) 18%
Population (2050) 25%
Production (2014) 5.5%
World trade (2014) 3%
Regional trade (share of total trade) 11%
Foreign Investments (2014) 4%
Energy production (2013) 3%
Education (enrolment rate) 77 %
Health workers 2%
People with HIV 71%
18. SSA Crop yields (1963-2010)
Annual growth rate : 1,5 -2 % over 40 years
19. Sources of agricultural growth
Growing importance of yield gains (input intensification)
Limited contribution of TFP growth (technological innovation)
20. Food Gap
Only 15% of growing SSA food demand can be met with current TFP growth
demand
production
21. Agrarian & Rural Change (Jayne et al.)
โข Surplus land, but only in few countries (Congo,
Angola, Gabon, Cameroon)
โข Declining average farm size (0.9-1.5 ha/fam)
๏ stagnating returns to (family) labour
โข Rise of medium-size farms (20-100 ha) owned by
urban investors (telephone farmers)
โข Growing land inequalities (Gini > 0.6)
โข Shift to rural off/non-farm wage & self-employment
(+ migration)
โข Growth corridors: concentrated development
22. Low agricultural labour productivity
Due to:
- Limited input
complementarities
- Scarce irrigation
- Low education
- No credit access
- Little extension
services
- High risks
23. SSA Post harvest losses
Potential gains in post-harvest management up to 25% (ยฑ 15) of production value
(Mainly: transport & Storage)