After a decade of first wage-stagnation and then wage-slump, some analysts think it won’t be long before real earnings begin to rise again.
What happens to wages over the next year is first and foremost of great concern to hard-hit households. But it is also likely to greatly affect the sustainability of consumption and therefore the recovery, the path of future monetary policy and, indeed, the wider political debate between now and the next election.
This Resolution Foundation event threw light on the question and heard from some of the UK’s leading economists.
Speakers were:
Matthew Whittaker - Senior Economist, Resolution Foundation
David Smith – Economics Editor, Sunday Times
Nicola Smith – Head of Economics and Social Affairs, TUC
Ian Stewart – Chief Economist, Deloitte
John Philpott – Director, The Jobs Economist
Gavin Kelly (Chair) - Chief Executive, Resolution Foundation
1. ……………………………………………………………………………………………..
2014, year of the
pay rise?
Matthew Whittaker, Resolution Foundation
David Smith, Sunday Times
John Philpott, The Jobs Economist
Nicola Smith, TUC
Ian Stewart, Deloitte
Gavin Kelly, Resolution Foundation (chair)
4 February 2014
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#ukwages
2. Making sense of pay data
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
• Range of pay measures with sometimes conflicting messages
• Depends in part on coverage. Two key measures are:
– Average Weekly Earnings (monthly release, employer
survey, based on aggregate paybill data)
– Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (annual release,
employer survey, directly reported pay)
• Depends also on the inflation rate used. Choices include:
– CPI (excludes mortgage costs)
– RPI (includes mortgage costs, but flawed methodology)
– CPIH (includes estimate of owner occupied housing costs)
– RPIJ (same coverage as RPI, but uses accepted method)
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#ukwages
3. Variations on the wage squeeze
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According to
the ONS
Average
Weekly
Earnings
measure,
pay has
fallen in real
terms for
most of the
past five
years
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#ukwages
4. Variations on the wage squeeze
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Annual
snapshot
provided by
ASHE
presents a
similar
picture, but
with some
variation
Comparison
suggests
situation
has
deteriorated
since latest
ASHE data
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#ukwages
5. Variations on the wage squeeze
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Under range
of
alternative
wage (LFS,
AEI, AWE &
ASHE) and
inflation
(RPI, CPI &
CPIH)
measures,
the spread
of outcomes
is broad, but
the general
trend is
largely
unchanged
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#ukwages
6. Variations on the wage squeeze
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
With less
volatility
when bonus
payments
are excluded
Reflecting
the growing
importance
of bonuses
and
reactions to
changes in
the
additional
(50p) tax
rate
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#ukwages
12. Making sense of pay data
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
• Measures differ due to coverage, timing and choice of deflator
• Despite differences, basic story is similar: no sign of the wage
squeeze ending just yet
• Experiences have varied across the earnings distribution and
by worker characteristic
• Main pay data takes no account for growing number of selfemployed workers
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#ukwages
13. ……………………………………………………………………………………………..
2014, year of the
pay rise?
Matthew Whittaker, Resolution Foundation
David Smith, Sunday Times
John Philpott, The Jobs Economist
Nicola Smith, TUC
Ian Stewart, Deloitte
Gavin Kelly, Resolution Foundation (chair)
4 February 2014
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
#ukwages