This update for BMI's Greece Telecommunications Report coincides with the news that the Greek financial system, already close to disaster, was to be the recipient of a EUR110bn bailout covering a three-year period. Athens has committed to an even harsher financial recovery plan than the plan outlined at the beginning of 2010, but this should not obscure the fact that the country is technically insolvent. While it is true to say that the telecoms sector is often fairly resilient to major economic upheavals, it is clear that Greek consumers will be less willing to spend on non-essential services than before and that we will now have to keep a close eye on our forecasts for the country's telecoms markets, even the robust mobile telephony and fixed broadband segments. The mobile market grew by an impressive 10.2% in 2009, markedly improving on the 8.9% rise seen in 2008 despite the effects of the global recession. This suggests a degree of resilience to unfavourable economic winds, which may stand the country's operators in good stead in 2010, but, with revenues already diminished as a result of lower roaming rates, operators may now be more reluctant to engage in prolonged pricing battles. Market saturation may also inhibit growth, though this cannot be guaranteed given Greek mobile users' preferences for prepaid services. By 2014, we now expect there to be 24.17mn mobile subscribers in Greece, yielding a penetration rate of 212.2%, up from 185% in 2009. The broadband market ' which includes 'traditional' fixed connections such as ADSL as well as fibre and wireless connections ' grew by just more than 19% in 2009, yielding a subscriber base of 2.18mn. As with mobile, this was a slightly stronger performance than that seen in 2008, despite the recession. The lack of verifiable data regarding mobile broadband usage means that we have not included subscribers to those services in these forecasts, but, if mobile data usage rates reported by the operators are anything to go by, mobile broadband was poised to become a driving force in the market at the time of writing. Of course, the latest economic crisis may now put paid to all of that, but, in the absence of any data negating our expectations, we envisage the market expanding by around 21% in 2010, enabling the penetration rate to rise to more than 23%. By the end of our forecast period in 2014, we anticipate the broadband penetration rate rising beyond 33%. Greece remains in 11th position in the Business Environment Ratings for Western Europe this quarter, despite the gloomier economic outlook at the time the ratings were generated and the universal falls in mobile and broadband ARPUs. Its already comparatively poor Country Risk score is therefore set to plummet in our next quarterly update, which, along with Q110 results, ought to make for interesting reading.

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Greece Telecommunications Report Q3 2010
Published on June 2010
Report Summary
This update for BMI's Greece Telecommunications Report coincides with the news that the Greek financial system, already close to
disaster, was to be the recipient of a EUR110bn bailout covering a three-year period. Athens has committed to an even harsher
financial recovery plan than the plan outlined at the beginning of 2010, but this should not obscure the fact that the country is
technically insolvent. While it is true to say that the telecoms sector is often fairly resilient to major economic upheavals, it is clear that
Greek consumers will be less willing to spend on non-essential services than before and that we will now have to keep a close eye on
our forecasts for the country's telecoms markets, even the robust mobile telephony and fixed broadband segments.
The mobile market grew by an impressive 10.2% in 2009, markedly improving on the 8.9% rise seen in 2008 despite the effects of the
global recession. This suggests a degree of resilience to unfavourable economic winds, which may stand the country's operators in
good stead in 2010, but, with revenues already diminished as a result of lower roaming rates, operators may now be more reluctant to
engage in prolonged pricing battles. Market saturation may also inhibit growth, though this cannot be guaranteed given Greek mobile
users' preferences for prepaid services. By 2014, we now expect there to be 24.17mn mobile subscribers in Greece, yielding a
penetration rate of 212.2%, up from 185% in 2009.
The broadband market ' which includes 'traditional' fixed connections such as ADSL as well as fibre and wireless connections ' grew
by just more than 19% in 2009, yielding a subscriber base of 2.18mn. As with mobile, this was a slightly stronger performance than
that seen in 2008, despite the recession. The lack of verifiable data regarding mobile broadband usage means that we have not
included subscribers to those services in these forecasts, but, if mobile data usage rates reported by the operators are anything to go
by, mobile broadband was poised to become a driving force in the market at the time of writing. Of course, the latest economic crisis
may now put paid to all of that, but, in the absence of any data negating our expectations, we envisage the market expanding by
around 21% in 2010, enabling the penetration rate to rise to more than 23%. By the end of our forecast period in 2014, we anticipate
the broadband penetration rate rising beyond 33%.
Greece remains in 11th position in the Business Environment Ratings for Western Europe this quarter, despite the gloomier economic
outlook at the time the ratings were generated and the universal falls in mobile and broadband ARPUs. Its already comparatively poor
Country Risk score is therefore set to plummet in our next quarterly update, which, along with Q110 results, ought to make for
interesting reading.
Table of Content
Executive Summary ...... 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Greece Wireline SWOT ... 6
Greece Mobile SWOT ..... 7
Greece Political SWOT ... 8
Greece Economic SWOT . 8
Greece Business Environment SWOT ....... 9
Business Environment ............ 10
Western Europe .... 10
Greece...... 13
Table: Western Europe Business Environment Rankings .. 15
Greece Telecommunications Report Q3 2010 Page 1/5

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Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 16
Mobile . 16
Table: Telecoms Sector ' Mobile ' Historical Data & Forecasts ... 16
Fixed Line ........ 18
Table: Telecoms Sector ' Fixed Line ' Historical Data & Forecasts .......... 18
Internet ............ 19
Table: Telecoms Sector ' Internet ' Historical Data & Forecasts . 19
Market Data Analysis .. 21
Mobile ...... 21
Table: Greece Mobile Market, Q409 ...... 22
Table: Greece Mobile Market, Net Additions, Q409 ......... 23
Customer Divisions ....... 23
ARPU .. 24
Table: Greece Mobile Market, Blended ARPU, 2007-2009 (EUR/user/month) ........ 26
3G ....... 26
Mobile Contract Wins ........ 27
Table: Mobile Contract Wins ..... 27
Mobile Content ..... 28
Regional Outlook .......... 28
Country Outlook ........... 31
HSDPA And HSUPA ..... 32
Value-Added Services Timeline.. 34
Table: Selected VAS Services ..... 34
Mobile Operator Data ....... 35
Table: Greece Mobile Market Overview . 35
Table: Cosmote 36
Table: Vodafone............ 37
Table: WIND Hellas ..... 38
Fixed Line 39
Table: Greece Fixed-Line Market, Q408-Q409 (mn) ........ 39
Table: Greece Fixed Line ' Total Voice Minutes (mn) ..... 40
Broadband ....... 42
VDSL .. 43
FTTH .. 46
WiMAX ............ 46
IPTV ... 48
Table: FORTHnet NOVA Subscribers .... 48
Wireline Contract Wins ...... 50
Table: Selected Wireline Contract Wins . 50
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments ..... 52
Greece: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities .... 52
Legislation And Market Liberalisation ... 53
Competition Policy ....... 54
Interconnection 55
Industry Developments . 56
Competitive Landscape ........... 58
Key Players ........... 58
Table: Key Players: Greece Telecoms Sector ...... 58
Table: Selected Operator Financial Parameters . 59
Company Monitor ........ 60
Greece Telecommunications Report Q3 2010 Page 2/5

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Comparison Of Key Financial Data (2008-2009) 60
Subtitle: NSN Net Sales By Geography (Q409).... 61
Subtitle: Key Spectrum Auctions In Western Europe (2010-2011) .. 62
Major Nokia Siemens Networks Contract Awards, Q409-Q110 ..... 63
Company Profiles ........ 64
Hellenic Telecommunications Organization (OTE) .......... 64
Vodafone Greece .......... 70
WIND Hellas.... 72
FORTHnet ....... 76
Hellas On Line (HOL) .. 80
Appendix: ........ 83
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ....... 83
Fixed Line ........ 83
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview ........... 84
Mobile . 84
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview .... 85
Broadband ....... 86
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview ......... 87
Glossary Of Terms ...... 88
Table: Glossary Of Terms .......... 88
BMI Methodology ........ 89
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .......... 89
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts ............ 89
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 91
Table: Ratings Indicators .......... 92
Sources ............ 92
Greece Telecommunications Report Q3 2010 Page 3/5

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