This document provides an economic report and outlook for the Québec City Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) for 2014 and 2015. It summarizes key economic indicators for the Québec City CMA, including:
- Real GDP grew 1.7% in 2014 to $34 billion, with strong growth in the services sector and a recovery in manufacturing supported by the American economy.
- 5,200 new jobs were added in 2014, the most of any region in Quebec.
- Productivity increased 0.4% and personal income grew 3.4% in 2014.
- The report predicts that real GDP will increase by 2% in 2015, supported by continued private and public investment projects.
4. Methodology
This study, entitled EconomicReportandOutlooksfortheQuébecCityCensusMetropolitan
Area - 2014-2015, was conducted by Québec International. In addition to addressing key
economic indicators for assessing regional performance, it takes an objective look at the
results achieved in 2014 and those expected in 2015. Changes in a number of regional
economic variables are also compared with those of seven other metropolitan areas in
Canada: Montréal, Toronto, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver.
These benchmark regions were selected because, together with Québec City, they form
the eight largest metropolitan areas in Canada and because they have diversified
economies comparable to that of the Québec City Census Metropolitan Area (CMA).
Seven key indicators were selected for this analysis: economic growth, purchasing power,
labour market, non-residential investment, housing market, demographics and tourism.
Major projects underway in Québec City, major employers in the region as well as historical
data on the economic indicators analyzed can be found in the appendix. This study is
based on statistical data published by recognized organizations. Some indicators were
processed and analyzed in order to establish forecasts for 2015.
Note to readers
This study was produced by Québec International’s Department of Economic Studies and
Strategic Monitoring. This team of professionals is responsible for ensuring the availability of
high-quality economic information. To that end, they monitor changes in the economic and
business environment at the regional, national and international levels and conduct various
types of research and analysis in order to identify opportunities, guide development strategies
and define actions to be taken in support of regional economic growth.
The information in this study is based on the information available as at April 2015.
5. Economic Report
and Outlooks
Québec City CMA
2014 2015
3
In 2014, the economic performance of the Québec City CMA met expectations.
The key indicators studied showed growth exceeding that of 2013 and owing
to major capital investment projects, a gradual recovery for the manufacturing
sector, growing household income and population growth. By its strong
performance, the Québec City CMA has positioned itself as one of the most
vibrant regions not only in Québec, but also in Canada. Last year’s advances
will prove to be an important lever for stimulating economic expansion in
Québec City throughout 2015.
Among the indicators that stood out, real gross domestic product (GDP) showed an increase of 1.7%
in 2014, generating a total of $34G. This performance was accompanied by 5,200 new jobs – the
most important creation of jobs in all of Québec. The services sector and the recovery of the
manufacturing sector, stimulated by the recovery of the American economy, supported this economic
growth and the labour market. The outlook for the Québec City region is also positive in terms of
personal income (+ 3.4%) and productivity (+ 0.4%), while non-residential investments ($1.1G) nearly
reached the record high established in 2013 ($1.2G).
In 2014, the economic vitality of the Québec City metropolitan area decreased the impact of certain
restrictions on performance. Budgetary restraint at all levels of government, continued increases in
competition from abroad and the slump in the residential market also garnered attention. Moreover,
while the population is growing, it is also increasingly ageing. This is problematic for the region which
must expand the work force if it is to offset the impact of retirement and sustain economic growth.
The Québec City CMA’s unemployment rate, which settled at 5.3% in 2014, continues to put great
pressure on the labour market. The scarcity of available labour is a very real problem, especially
among people aged 25-54 for whom the unemployment rate was 4.3% last year.
The region’s performance in 2014 along with its constant efforts to improve the resiliency of the
economy should be driving factors for 2015. Private and public investment have already been
announced. Improvement of institutional, industrial and commercial infrastructure as well as that of
transportation will help diversify the region’s economic base and increase its appeal to foreign
investors. An improvement in the global economic outlook and a competitive currency are factors
that favour the development of foreign markets and the turnaround of the manufacturing sector.
In short, the efforts deployed in the Québec City CMA in 2014 should carry on into 2015. This economic
drive will help support efforts to expand the region’s economic base and should prove to be an asset
capable of creating jobs, stimulating investment, developing businesses and improving household
finances. It will allow the City of Québec to maintain its position as the economic leader among
Canada’s metropolitan areas.
Summary
6. 1
4
Economic growth
The Québec City metropolitan area – the eighth largest in Canada –
generated a real GDP of $34G in 2014, an increase of 1.7% over the
previous year. Like Canada’s other large metropolitan areas, the region
maintained an expansionist rhythm and recorded growth exceeding
that of 2013 (+ 1.2%). In Québec City, the steadiness of employment
(+ 5.2%), non-residential investment ($1.1G) and improvement of
manufacturing conditions contributed to this growth.
Manufacturing GDP recorded a 2.6% increase in the Québec City area between 2013 and 2014,
thus ending seven consecutive years of decline. The revival of the American economy, in
conjunction with the weaker Canadian dollar, allowed manufacturers to bolster their order
books and to develop new foreign markets; this upward trend will continue into 2015. The
services sector, backed by all of its components, recorded an annual growth of 1.8%. By
backing the expansion of production services1
and consumer services2
, the area demonstrated
resilience, and this, despite the context of budget restraint that public institutions faced. The
current year will be no different. Just like the other Canadian CMAs, in 2014, the Québec City
CMA experienced a drop of 3.3% in its construction industry. The area was affected by a
downturn in the residential market and by fewer new major non-residential projects. For 2015,
renewed investment in major residential, institutional, commercial and road construction
projects will allow the construction industry to turnaround.
The economic performance of 2014 has had a positive impact on productivity3
. The real GDP
to jobs ratio was $78,527 ($76,866 in Québec), an annual increase of 0.4% (+ 1.7% in Québec).
Construction and services productivity rose by 3.8% and 1%, respectively, while manufacturing
productivity continued to slowdown, falling by 7%. Québec City’s relatively lower productivity
compared to that of other major Canadian cities may be, in part, due to the prolonged slump
in the manufacturing sector.
The Québec City CMA also recorded a 0.9% increase in GDP per capita between 2013 and
2014 (the same as the province), for a total of $42,540 ($38,001 in Québec). To this end, it is
worth noting that for the past ten years growth in this area was the highest in the province,
standing at 10% (+ 5.6% in Québec). Thanks to this performance, Québec City ranks fourth in
Canada after Winnipeg (+ 12.1%), Vancouver (+ 12.6%) and Edmonton (+ 18.9%).
Thanks to its diversity and vitality, the Québec City CMA ensured that it remained one of the
most performing areas in Canada for 2014. This performance will also prove to be an asset as
2015 kicks off. Notably, real GDP should increase by 2% and, thus, attain the average growth
rate recorded over the past ten years.
1 Production services include professional, scientific and technical services as well as those pertaining to finance, insurance,
real-estate, public administration, transportation and storage.
2 Consumer services include commercial, information, cultural and recreation, accommodation, and restaurant services in
addition to other services.
3 Labour productivity is real GDP divided by the number of hours worked. This ratio indicates the value of goods and services
produced for each hour worked. However, the concept of hours worked is not available for census metropolitan areas. To
get around this problem, we used the number of jobs in each area to calculate the value of the goods and services produced
by each worker.
Photocredit: :LucAntoineCouturier
7. 2014 2015
Economic Report
and Outlooks
Québec City CMA
Economic
growth
5
Photocredit: :LucAntoineCouturier
Real GDP: Profile of the 8 major Canadian CMAs
Real GDP GDP per worker GDP per capita
2014 2013-2014 variation 2014 2013-2014 variation 2014 2013-2014 variation
M$ % $ % $ %
Québec 34,016.6 1.7 78.527 0.4 42.540 0.9
Toronto 304,176.8 2.9 98.531 3.0 50.230 1.3
Montréal 166,488.2 2.2 82.449 2.7 41.342 1.1
Vancouver 118,422.2 3.7 92.774 1.4 47.939 2.4
Calgary 116,065.7 4.4 145.159 1.7 82.508 0.7
Edmonton 88,874.4 5.4 119.354 3.0 66.909 2.0
Ottawa 63,971.4 0.6 90.556 (1.2) 48.532 (0.5)
Winnipeg 34,852.8 2.1 84.877 2.3 44.532 0.5
Sources: Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada and Québec International
Growth in GDP per capita and per worker, Québec CMA
Sources: Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada and Québec International
2010
43,000
42,500
42,000
41,500
41,000
40,500
40,000
79,000
78,500
78,000
77,500
77,000
76,500
76,000
$
GDP per capita ( l ) GDP per worker ( r )
$
2011 2012 2013 2014
8. 6
Purchasing power
Average salary
According to a recent update from the Conference Board of Canada, a worker in the
Québec City CMA earned an average salary of $42,442 in 2014 ($40,878 in Québec). This
represents an increase of 2.5% from 2013 (+2.1% in Québec), which was favoured by the
increase in the number and the diversity of jobs, especially where skilled jobs are
concerned. In 2015 and in the years to come, wage increments should remain above
2% based on the positive growth outlook and on the ongoing need for labour.
Personal disposable income
The Conference Board of Canada reported that personal disposable income (PDI) per capita
amounted to $31,032 in 2014 ($27,298 in Québec), an annual increase of 3.4% (+ 1.8% in
Québec). The area ranked first in Québec, beating out Montréal ($28,578). The rise in
employment earnings and in government transfers will put upward pressure on PDI, a trend
that will continue throughout 2015.
Inflation rate
In 2014, inflation remained low in the Québec City CMA, reaching only 1.3% compared to
1.4% in the province of Québec and 2% in Canada. The upward pressure on consumer
prices remained well-controlled, in particular, due to decreasing energy costs. The
increase in the inflation rate, which was less than those in average salary and PDI per
capita, favours a gain in the purchasing power of consumers in the region. This situation
is expected to persist in 2015.
Retail sales
In 2014, retail sales set a record high of $13.8G, an annual increase of 4% (+ 2.4 in Québec).
Consumption benefited from the steadiness of employment, the boost in earnings and the
low inflation rate. The arrival and expansion of new retail chains in the Québec City area as
well as the modernization of existing infrastructure should favour retail sales in 2015.
Bankruptcies
The Québec City CMA counted 1,895 bankruptcies in 2014, 103 less than in 2013 (- 5.2%).
To this end, 1,748 individuals filed for bankruptcy, 119 less than in 2013 (- 6.4%). More jobs,
the low inflation rate and favourable interest rates contributed to improving the financial
health of consumers. In terms of businesses, Québec City counted 147 corporate
bankruptcy filings in 2014, 16 more than in 2013 (+ 12.2%). Innovative capability and the
development of markets are assets to improving the financial performance of businesses
in the area. However, conjunctural and structural constraints persist. This constitutes the
fourth decrease in total bankruptcies in five years; it is, therefore, likely that the area will
follow this downward trend in 2015.
2Photocredit: :YvesTessier,Tassima
9. 2014 2015
Economic Report
and Outlooks
Québec City CMA
7
Photocredit: :YvesTessier,Tassima
Profile of the purchasing power of the 8 major Canadian CMAs, 2014
PDI per capita Average salary Inflation rate
$ Variation (%) $ Variation (%) %
2014 2013-2014 2014 2013-2014 2014
Québec 31,032 3.4 42,442 2.5 1.3
Calgary 43,781 1.9 69,824 3.4 3.0
Edmonton 38,097 2.3 61,337 3.3 2.2
Ottawa 33,700 1.6 49,249 1.6 2.0
Vancouver 32,710 2.9 45,239 2.9 1.1
Toronto 32,012 2.9 50,389 2.7 2.5
Winnipeg 29,835 1.3 43,049 2.6 1.9
Montréal 28,578 3.0 42,994 2.7 1.5
Sources: Conference Board of Canada and Québec International
Retail sales, Québec City CMA
2010
12,144
12,497
12,704
13,272
13,799
14,000
13,500
13,000
12,500
12,000
11,500
11,000
10,500
10,000
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
M$
Retail sales (left) Annual variation (right)
%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: Conference Board of Canada and Québec International
Purchasing
power
10. 8
3 In 2014, the Québec City CMA proved to have the most performing
labour market in the province of Québec. The area accounted for the
greatest number of new jobs (5,200) compared to 2013, bringing the
total number of jobs to a record high of 433,700. It also recorded the
lowest unemployment rate (5.3%) and the highest employment rate
(65.2%). These results put Québec City in fifth place for job creation
and in third place for rates of unemployment and employment among
the eight largest metropolitan areas in Canada.
The services sector – the region’s economic powerhouse – added 3,000 new jobs in 2014.
In particular, consumer services (commerce, tourism, etc.) and public services (education,
health, etc.) contributed to these new jobs. Moreover, the performance of these services
offset the stagnation in production services (professional, scientific and technical, insurance
services, etc.). In 2015, the favourable outlook for services related to information technology,
the medical field, insurance, administration, engineering and tourism will create excellent
conditions for job seekers. The need for labour should thus continue to ease concerns over
rigorous fiscal measures and over the closure of certain major retail chains.
In 2014, the manufacturing sector accounted for 31,300 jobs in Québec City – 2,900 more
than in 2013. The steadiness of most of the sector’s components was such that the
manufacturing of durable goods accounted for 72% of all new manufacturing jobs last year.
As for the manufacturing of non-durable goods, its growth was limited to hiring in the food
processing industry. The expansion of the American economy, the development of new
export markets and the launch of new value-added manufactured goods will continue to
favour hiring in 2015.
The construction industry employed 23,000 workers in 2014 – 1,700 less than in 2013. The
slowdown in the residential market and the completion of several major non-residential
projects slowed the creation of jobs. However, the number of construction jobs in 2014 was
almost double what was reported in the census ten years ago. In 2015, the pre-lease and
pre-sale periods for several major projects will be drawing to a close and the ensuing
start-ups, expected in the second half of the year, could create favourable conditions for
job seekers.
The economic diversification that has taken place in the region, over the past few years has
created conditions that favour the labour market. However, the lack of available and
qualified potential applicants is of significant concern for employers. The situation is
particularly apparent in the 25-54 age group, which represents 61% of all jobs. In 2014, this
group recorded unemployment and employment rates of 4.3% and 87.4%, respectively.
While enviable, when combined with the moderate growth of the active population, these
rates hamper businesses that wish to expand. According to the Léger survey on the
confidence of entrepreneurs, 83% of business leaders claim to be facing a recruitment
challenge. Foreign recruitment seems to offer a solution to the problem. For instance,
international recruitment campaigns helped attract around 1,200 skilled foreign workers to
Québec City between 2008 and 2014.
Labour market
11. Economic Report
and Outlooks
Québec City CMA
2014 2015
9
Labourmarket
Employment market profile of the 8 major Canadian CMAs
Employment (‘000) Variation (%) Unemployment rate Employment rate
2014 2013-2014 2010-2014 15-64 years 25-54 years 15-64 years 25-54 years
Québec 433.7 1.2 4.3 5.3 4.3 65.2 87.4
Toronto 3,087.4 (0.2) 7.2 8.0 6.6 61.5 79.5
Montréal 2,019.5 (0.5) 3.5 8.2 7.2 60.7 80.2
Vancouver 1,276.3 2.3 6.3 5.8 5.1 60.9 80.0
Calgary 1,146.8 3.7 13.7 5.0 4.2 69.7 84.0
Edmonton 744.8 2.3 16.5 5.1 4.3 69.3 83.8
Ottawa 707.0 1.8 3.0 6.7 5.3 65.1 83.6
Winnipeg 410.8 (0.2) 3.2 5.8 4.7 63.9 83.9
Sources : Statistics Canada and Québec International
Employment variation by activity sector, Québec City CMA
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
+19 %
+13 %
+9 %
+0.6 %
(3 %)
(22 %)
Index 2010=100
Production services
Consumption services
Government services
Durable goods
Non-durable goods
Construction
Sources: Statistics Canada and Québec International
12. 10
Non-residential
investment4
10
According to Statistics Canada, $1.1G was invested in the non-residential
sector of the Québec City CMA in 2014. In fact, investment in the region,
which posted an annual decrease of 3.4% ($38.7M), nearly tied the 2013
record. The completion of several major projects seems to have had a
moderatingeffectonthearea’sperformance,whiletheprovinceandthe
country recorded an annual increase of almost 1%. Despite this, the
region represented 10.9% and 2.2% of total non-residential capital
expenditures in Québec and Canada, respectively. Thus, maintaining its
position as the second most important area in Québec (after Montréal)
and the eighth most important in Canada.
The commercial sector invested $846M in Québec City last year. Despite an annual decline
of 2.9%, several projects stood out; namely, the Carrefour St-Romuald, the commercial
revitalization of downtown Lévis and the arrival of several community services
(pharmacies, grocery stores, etc.). For 2015, several major shopping malls (Galeries de la
Capitale, Place Ste-Foy, etc.) are looking to modernize their infrastructures, which should
offset the recently announced closure of a handful of large retailers. The area’s role as an
important commercial hub for the east of Québec constitutes another investment-
promoting factor. In this regard, there are currently some twenty-odd major projects
announced or underway, totaling an estimated $800M.
Meanwhile, the institutional market generated expenditures of $181M in 2014, an increase
of 2.8% over 2013. Last year, work on around ten construction sites came to a close,
adding over a million square feet of office space. This upward trend should continue given
that the region’s vacancy rate was the lowest in Canada (6.8%) during the fourth quarter
of 2014. A number of projects in Lebourgneuf, Sainte-Foy and Lévis are at the start-up
phase or the last phase of the pre-lease process. Work has also continued on the new
amphitheatre as well as on research centres, educational and health institutions, and
transportation infrastructure. Finally, two major projects will garner much attention over
the next decade. Groupe Dallaire plans to invest close to $600M in their Le Phare complex,
while the health sector intends to invest in the university medical center of Québec (CHU
de Québec) following talks on the future of the Hôtel-Dieu de Québec and the Hôpital de
l’Enfant-Jésus. In all, the Québec City area has around 80 current, or planned, institutional
projects for a value of $4.6G.
Last year, the industrial sector invested $85M in capital. Despite an annual performance
decrease of 18%, the region has succeeded in attaining a performance level equal to that
of its ten-year average. While the modernization of existing infrastructure remains a
concern, investment in this area will improve production processes and reduce production
costs. There are presently ten-odd major projects, valued at $630M, announced or
underway in the Québec City area. In the future, the expansion of the St-Augustin
industrial park and the construction of another industrial park, the Espace d’innovation
Michelet, should lead to the construction of new industrial buildings.
The diversity of these projects should stimulate non residential investment in Québec
City. Moreover, other projects to improve road infrastructure, public transport networks
and energy facilities – which are beyond the scope of this report – are already underway
or have been announced. To sum up, the Québec City area has around 130 current, or
13. 2014 2015
Economic Report
and Outlooks
Québec City CMA
11
Non-residential
investment
planned, non residential projects for a value of over $6.8G. However, the 38.9% decrease in the value
of building permits for 2014 leads us to believe that the start-up of new construction projects will be
slow in 2015, especially in the second half of the year.
Non-residential market of Québec City CMA
$ 6.8G of non-residential investment distributed over 130 projects underway
and announced in the Québec City CMA between 2015 and 2020
20132012
-14.3 %
-8.6 %
-3.4 %
-38.9 %
-9.8 %
-18.7 %
+12.2 %
+21.6 %
+11.8 %
+47.6 %
2011
M $
Building permits
Investments
2010
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2014
Sources : Statistique Canada et Québec International
Compilation: Québec International
Private
53%
Distribution
of institutional
investment
Industrial
sector
10 projects
$ 630 M
Commercial
sector
20 projects
$ 800 M
Other
sectors
20 projects
$ 800 M
Public
47%
Institutional
sector
80 projects
$ 4.6 G
14. 12
5 The housing market in the Québec City CMA showed a certain stability
in 2014. Construction starts decreased slightly, sales of existing
properties improved somewhat and the average price of homes
increasedatthesamerateasinflation.Potentialbuyerinterestremained
strong in light of the region’s good economic performance. However,
the growing number of new and existing properties for sale and the
diversity of these properties limits the number of new construction
projects and lengthens the amount of time required to sell.
The construction industry has gradually begun to slowdown. Last year, the metropolitan
area’s total housing stock increased by 4,449 new units – 231 fewer than in 2013. As we
expected, residential construction benefited from good employment levels, favourable tax
credits and household formation. However, the dwindling number of new homes for sale and
the increasing number of existing properties for sale have slowed new project starts, especially
for rental and single-family dwellings.
In 2014, 2,843 new apartments and 887 single-family houses were built in the region; that’s
226 and 74 fewer units, respectively, than in 2013. The rising vacancy rate (3.1% in October)
seems to be pushing the rental market under the annual 3,000-unit mark. Meanwhile, the
slump in single-family house sales continued for a fourth consecutive year. To this effect,
single-family houses totaled only 20% of all new construction starts last year compared to
44% ten years ago. Duplexes and townhouses continued to garner the interest of young
families seeking to purchase an affordable property. In 2014, 729 new units were built –
79 more than in 2013.
Finally, the number of major projects in the Québec City CMA suggests that construction
starts will continue to hover around the 4,000-unit mark in 2015. There are also a hundred-
odd projects underway or announced, totalling over $3.5G that would potentially add
8,000 new units to the area over the next few years. It should be noted that this does not
include the two big projects recently announced by Group Dallaire in Sainte-Foy (Le Phare)
and in Beauport (Sœur de la Charité) which could add over 3,000 units.
For its part, the resale market recorded 6,472 transactions in 2014 – 199 more than in 2013. The
favourable economic outlook, the increase in listings and the moderate jump in prices has had
a positive effect on all components. There were 4,489 transactions for single-family houses,
1,485 for condominiums and 490 for plexes. These numbers represent annual increases of
2%, 3% and 12%, respectively. With regard to transaction prices, the average increased by only
2% for single-family houses, settling at $245,000. The average price of a condominium was
$198,500 while it was $287,500 for a plex, down 1% and 4%, respectively.
In the coming years, the resale market is expected to record between 6,500 and
7,000 transactions annually. The region will benefit particularly from an increase in new
listings. A rise in the offer will also curb rising transaction prices, which are expected to
stabilize around the 1% mark and, therefore, should not contribute to household mortgage
burden.
Housing market
15. Economic Report
and Outlooks
Québec City CMA
2014 2015
Housingmarket
13
Housing market profile, Quebec City CMA
Main residential projects underway and announced in Québec City CMA
Company Geographic area Residential project Investment ($M)
SSQ Immobilier Québec Cité Verte - 800 units 350
Groupe Dallaire Beauport Faubourg du Moulin - 2,000 units 325
Société immobilière Huot Lebourgneuf L’Aventura- 1,000 units 200
Société immobilière Huot Lebourgneuf Les Façades et les Jardins
du Mesnil - 780 units 152
Gestion immobilière Beaudet Lebourgneuf Jardin de Vérone - 350 units 150
Développement BL Québec Seigneurie de Beauport 100
Novalia Charlesbourg Ste-Marie-des-anges - 350 units 90
Douville Moffet Associés Ste-Foy QB - 600 units 50
Groupe Maurice Lévis Quartier Sud - 310 units 50
Les Immeubles Roussin Québec La Garde - 265 units 50
Compilation: Québec International
201320122011
Number
Sales
Construction starts
2010
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2014
Sources: Canada Mortgage and housing corporation (CMHC) and Centris
16. In2014,799,632peoplelivedintheQuébecCityCMA.Thiscorresponds
toanannualgrowthrateof0.8%between2013and2014–aratesimilar
to that of the province of Québec. Accounting for 9.7% of Québec’s
population and 2.25% of Canada’s population, the CMA is the second
most important metropolitan area in Québec and the seventh in the
country. Between 2004 and 2014, the region’s population increased
by11.4%,whilethatofQuébecgrewby9%.TheInstitutdelastatistique
du Québec (ISQ) predicts that the CMA’s population will grow by 7.3%
over the next decade (7.7% for Québec). The ISQ’s demographic
forecast also suggests that the growth rate for the region will follow a
downward trend, remaining above 1% by 2036.
According to the most recent data, the Québec City CMA registered 8,432 births in 2013.
The reference scenario set by the ISQ predicts that the number of births each year will
remain above the 8,000 mark for the next decade. The creation of new families, the
quality of life in the region and the level of consumer confidence will continue to support
the birth rate in the long term.
Furthermore, the Québec City CMA also displays a favorable outcome with regards to
immigration. In keeping with the trend observed over the past three years, the region,
welcomed over 3,000 foreign immigrants in 2013-2014. The region’s sustained economic
growth, increasing need for skilled labour and quality of life will ensure that it continues
to remain attractive in the eyes of international immigrants. In this regard, the ISQ predicts
that the CMA will maintain this power of attraction over the next 20 years.
It should be noted that international immigrants who settle in the Québec City CMA are
more skilled than those who settle elsewhere in the province. In fact, 71% of them have a
post-secondary diploma (61.7% in Québec), of which 39.1% hold a university degree
(30.9% in Québec). Moreover, at both the regional and the provincial levels, these
immigrants are significantly more educated than the rest of the population. Despite this,
the unemployment rate remains higher for immigrants than for the total population:
3.7% higher in the Québec City CMA and 4% higher in Québec. This situation confirms
that there is still much to be done in terms of improving how immigrants are integrated
into the community and how businesses tap into this potential labour pool.
Finally, analysis of the distribution of the population by age group confirms that the
region is facing an ageing population. According to the ISQ, this situation will remain the
same over the next ten years. Thus, the 15 to 24 age group (representing youth potentially
ready to enter the workforce) will continue to shrink from 12.1% of the population in 2014
to 9.8% in 2024. Likewise, the demographic weight of the 25 to 39 age group and the
40 to 54 age group will continue to decline from 21.1% to 19.5% and from 20.1% to 19.2%,
respectively. Conversely, the demographic weight of the 55 to 64 and the 65 and over age
groups will continue to increase. This situation is expected to persist until 2024. These
findings highlight the importance of maintaining efforts to find new labour pools –
especially abroad – as a means of meeting the growing needs of businesses.
Demographics
14
6
17. Economic Report
and Outlooks
Québec City CMA
2014 2015
DémographiCS
15
Educated immigrants and integrated labor market in Québec
Québec City CMA Province of Québec
Immigrants Total Immigrants Total
Unemployment rate 8.1% 4.4% 11.2% 7.2%
Employment rate 62.5% 64.4% 55.4% 59.9%
University diploma 39.1% 22.4% 30.9% 18.5%
Post-secondary diploma 71.8% 63.6% 61.7% 56.0%
No diploma 13.1% 15.2% 19.9% 22.0%
Average employment income $34,236 $39,124 $35,363 $36,352
Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (2011)
Demographic weight per age category in the Quebec CMA
%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2004
0-14
15.5%
13.1%
20.8%
24.9%
12.4%
13.3%
14.4%
9.8%
19.5% 19.2%
23.4%
12.7%
15-24 25-39 40-54 55-64 65 and +
2014 2024
14.4%
12.1%
21.1%
20.1%
14.3%
17.9%
Source: Institut de la statistique du Québec
18. The Québec City area is a tourist destination of regional, national and
international renown. However, competition in the tourism market is
fierce and several factors, especially those related to the state of the
economy, influence the region’s overall performance as a tourist
destination. In 2014, the composite index of tourism activity rose by
0.9 of a percentage point, reaching 100.9. Although modest, this
increase was based on several increasing components, including
those related to accommodation, shopping, passenger traffic at the
airport and the number of cruise passengers. Other components,
however, fell during this period, moderating the increase of the index.
In 2014, the sites and attractions index as well as the restaurant index recorded slight dips
of 0.9 and 1.9 percentage points, respectively. This decline was offset by, among others, a
rise in the shopping index by 5 percentage points compared to 2013 which helped sustain
the upward trend that began in 2012.
With respect to accommodation, the hotel occupancy index increased from 100 in 2013
to 102.7 in 2014. The improvement in the performance of the lodging industry was also
reflected in the hotel occupancy rate, which was at 61.7% in 2014, against 58.2% in 2013.
Moreover, the Jean-Lesage International Airport had an excellent year. There were
1,574,699 travellers that transited through the airport, an increase of 6.7% from 2013.
Consequently, the annual airport index rose by 7.7 percentage points. The majority of
passengers travelled to a destination within the province (54.7%). This category of
passengers recorded the highest growth rate (15.4%) since 2013. This steady increase in
passenger traffic is, therefore, in keeping with the airport’s objective to pass the two
million passenger mark by 2020. As such, the terminal expansion project is ongoing.
Once completed it will allow the airport to welcome more travellers and to better meet
client needs.
Likewise, the Port of Québec was exceedingly busy in 2014: 180,836 passengers visited
Québec City by cruise ship. This represents a growth rate of 11.6% from 2013, which was
already a record-breaking year. The constant increase in the number of embarkation/
disembarkation operations handled by the Port of Québec makes it the most important
port on the St. Lawrence River in terms of visits from international cruises in 2014. Plans
to update both the Paquet wharf and the current north shore terminal will ensure that
operations are managed in a more efficient and productive manner in the coming years.
Other investment projects that are already underway or that have been announced will
stimulate the Québec City area’s tourism offering in 2015. Examples of such investments
to attract more visitors to the region are the creation of a new station for the tourist train
on the Charlevoix to Sainte-Anne-de-Beaupré circuit and the Parc de la Chute-
Montmorency enhancement project. Moreover, the depreciation of the Canadian dollar
and the dip in oil prices could have a beneficial effect on the number of travellers that
choose to visit Québec City in 2015.
Tourism
16
7Photocredit:ClaudelHuot
19. 17
tourism
2014 2015
Economic Report
and Outlooks
Québec City CMA
Photocredit:ClaudelHuot
Tourism indicators for the Québec City area
2013 2014
Index Index
Composite index of tourism activity 100 100.9
Hotel occupancy index 100 102.7
Site/attraction visit index 100 99.1
Shop visits index 100 105
Restaurant occupancy index 100 98.1
Jean-Lesage international airport use index 100 107.7
Hotel occupancy rate (%) 58.2% 61.7%
Source: Québec City Tourism
21. 2014 2015
Economic Report
and Outlooks
Québec City CMA
19
APPENDIX
2004 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f
Housing market
Housing starts 6,186 5,445 6,416 4,680 4,449 4,000
Annual change (%) 10.5 -18.1 17.8 -27.1 -4.9 -10.1
Single dwelings 2,704 1,349 1,258 961 887 n/a
Multiple housing 3,482 4,096 5,158 3,719 3,562 n/a
Resale market n/a 7,241 7,219 6,273 6,472 6,650
Annual change (%) n/a 2.0 -0.3 -13.1 3.2 2.8
Average selling price ($) n/a 245,470 257,942 267,254 264,536 265,800
Annual change (%) n/a 4.1 5.1 3.6 -1.0 0.5
Vacancy rate (%) n/a 1.6 2.0 2.3 3.1 3.5
Retail sales (millions of $) 9,307 12,497 12,704 13,272 13,799 14,130
Annual change (%) 4.4 2.9 1.7 4.5 4.0 2.4
Inflation rate (%) 1.9 3.0 2.2 0.9 1.3 1.2
Office buildings
Vacancy rate (%) 4.3 6.0 7.2 6.4 6.8 6.8
Gross rent ($/sp.ft.) 17.80 21.08 21.56 21.74 21.79 n/a
Number of buildings 182 204 208 215 216 218
Existing surface (sq.ft.) 15,230,134 17,047,940 17,667,355 18,436,426 18,530,255 n/a
Value of building permits
(thousands of $) 11,321,198 1,686,711 1,697,118 1,721,514 1,511,730 n/a
Commercial (thousands of $) 246,364 422,523 358,625 537,244 324,554 n/a
Industrial (thousands of $) 22,945 93,967 70,680 103,362 47,663 n/a
Institutional (thousands of $) 111,225 74,563 104,105 146,553 109,094 n/a
Residential (thousands of $) 751,584 1,095,658 1,163,708 934,355 1,030,419 n/a
Personal banckruptcies n/a 1,792 1,755 1,867 1,748 n/a
Corporate banckruptcies n/a 126 113 131 147 n/a
Hotel occupancy rate (%) 56.3 57.4 57.8 58.2 61.7 n/a
f: forecast n/a : non available
Sources: Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Institut de la statistique du
Québec, Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards (QFREB), Office of the Superintendent of Bancruptcy Canada, Groupe Altus,
Mouvement Desjardins and Québec International
22. List of major non-residential private
investment projects underway
and announced in the Québec CMA
Investment Company Geographic Activity Project
($M) area sector
600 Groupe Dallaire Sainte-Foy Offices and Construction of the
commercial building complex Le Phare
500 Port de Québec Québec Transport Modernization of
port facilities
400 Société immobilière Lévis Commercial Construction of the
Maestri Terra commercial complex
Carrefour Saint-Romuald
225 Québec City Québec Transport Modernization
Jean-Lesage of airport facilities
International
Airport
160 Groupe Dallaire Sainte-Foy Offices and Construction of the
commercial building complex
Espace Ozone
150 Oxford Lebourgneuf Commercial Modernization of the
Galeries de la Capitale
shopping center
50 Ivanhoé Cambridge Sainte-Foy Commercial Modernization of
the Place Ste-Foy
shopping center
36 GSK Québec Industrial Modernization of the
production facilities
35 Asentri Québec ICT Construction of a computer
data center
28 Ubisoft Québec ICT Construction of 100
new workstations
25 Oxford Lebourgneuf Commercial Modernization of the
Galeries de la Capitale
shopping center
20 ABB Québec Industrial Contruction
of new facilities
16 Honco Lévis Entertainment Construction of
a sports complex
12 Groupe Dallaire Québec Offices and Construction of a mixed
commercial complex - Phase 1
12 Construction CSB Lévis Commercial Construction of the lace
Deschamps complex
Appendix 2
20
23. 2014 2015
Economic Report
and Outlooks
Québec City CMA
21
APPENDIX
List of major non-residential public
investment projects underway and announced
in the Québec CMA
Investment Company Geographic Activity Project
($M) area sector
400 Ministère Québec Transport Expansion of the
des Transport Henri-IV highway
du Québec
400 City of Québec Québec Culture and Construction of a
entertainment multi-purpose arena
130 CSST Québec Health Modernization of the offices
104 Gouvernement Québec Culture Reconstruction of the armoury
of Canada
103 Musée national Québec Culture Enlargement of the museum
des beaux-arts
du Québec
60 Québec Heart and Québec Health Enlargement of the
Lung Institute research center (5 phases)
56 City of Québec Québec Culture and Modernization of the
entertainment Gabrielle Roy library
50 National Assembly Québec Public services Modernization of the facilities
of Québec
39 RAMQ Québec Insurance Modernization of the offices
32 City of St-Augustin St-Augustin Entertainment Construction of
a sports complex
25 City of Québec Beauport Entertainment Construction of a soccer
stadium
21 City of Québec Québec Health Construction of a RD complex
20 City of Lévis Lévis Transport Revitalization of the Lévis
ferry area
17 Musée de Québec Culture Modernization of the museum
la civilisation
17 Société des Lévis Transport Revitalization of the Lévis
Traversiers ferry area
du Québec
Source : Indicateur des projets au Québec and Commission de la Construction du Québec
24. ICT Number of
employees
CGI 1,000 - 2,400
Fujitsu Conseil 1,000 - 2,400
Artefact Informatique 300 - 499
G.D.G. Informatique et gestion inc 300 - 499
Acceo 100 - 299
Telecommunications Number of
employees
HS Télécom 300 - 499
Télus Québec 100 - 299
Signalisation Ver-Mac 100 - 299
Siemens Canada Ltée less than 100
Orizon Mobile less than 100
Electronics Number of
employees
Olympus NDT Canada 300 - 499
Lab-Volt Ltée 300 - 499
Gecko Alliance 100 - 299
Éclairage Contraste ML inc. 100 - 299
M2S Électronique 100 - 299
Optics and photonics Number of
employees
Exfo Ingénierie Électro-Optique 500 - 699
ABB Analytical inc. 100 - 299
Creaform inc. 100 - 299
Teraxion inc. 100 - 299
Infodev Electronic Designers
International less than 100
Software Number of
employees
Oracle Taleo Canada 300 - 499
Microflex 2001 L.L.C. 100 - 299
Innovmetric Logiciels less than 100
Korem less than 100
C.T.R.L. Informatique less than 100
Web development Number of
employees
Nurun inc. 100 - 299
GP3 Groupe Conseil inc. 100 - 299
Ellicom less than 100
Tink less than 100
IXMédia less than 100
Digital arts Number of
employees
Valéa Productions less than 100
Libéo less than 100
EX MACHINA less than 100
Télémag Québec less than 100
ABUZIVE MUSIC INC. less than 100
Gaming Number of
employees
Frima Studio 300 - 499
Beenox inc. 300 - 499
Ubisoft 100 - 299
Sarbakan less than 100
Studio Élément less than 100
Biopharmaceutical Number of
employees
GlaxoSmithKline
Biotechnologicals
Amérique du Nord 700 - 999
Inventiv Health Clinical 300 - 499
BD Diagnostics-GeneOhm 300 - 499
Medicago 100 - 299
Endoceutics less than 100
Insurance Number of
employees
Desjardins Sécurité
Financière 4,000 - 5,400
Industrielle Alliance,
Assurance et Services
Financiers inc. 1,000-2,400
Capitale Assurances et Gestion
du Patrimoine inc. 1,000 - 2,400
SSQ Assurances générales 700 - 999
Groupe Promutuel 700 - 999
Appendix 3
22
List of the major private sector employees
by activity in the Québec City CMA
25. 23
Medical technologies Number of
employees
Corporation Steris Canada 300 - 499
Savard Ortho Confort 100 - 299
Orthofab less than 100
Omegachem inc. less than 100
Cosmetic and natural Number of
health products employees
Atrium Innovations inc. 100 - 299
Épiderma less than 100
Heliolab less than 100
Homeodel inc. less than 100
Immanence Intégrale Dermo Correction less than 100
Food processing Number of
employees
Biscuits Leclerc ltée 500 - 699
Frito Lay Canada 300 - 499
Alex Coulombe ltée 300 - 499
Aliments Martel inc. 100 - 299
Agropur Coopérative 100 - 299
Wood products Number of
employees
Préverco inc. 100 - 299
Teknion Concept 100 - 299
Concept Avanti less than 100
Produits Forestiers Résolu less than 100
Prestolam inc. less than 100
Rubber, plastic and Number of
composite materials employees
PH Tech inc. 100 - 299
Novik 100 - 299
Caron et Guay 100 - 299
Bains Ultra inc. less than 100
Groupe Polyalto less than 100
Metal products Number of
employees
Julien 300 - 499
Supermétal Structures inc. 300 - 499
Multiver Ltée 300 - 499
General Dynamics 100 - 299
Solaris Québec inc. 100 - 299
Transport material and machinery Number of
employees
Davie 700 - 999
Groupe Environnemental Labrie inc. 500 - 699
Premier Tech ltée 100 - 299
S. Huot inc. 100 - 299
Wajax Systèmes de puissance 100 - 299
Energy and environment Number of
employees
Gaz Métro 1,000 - 2,400
Ultramar ltée 500 - 699
Gaudreau Environnement inc. 100-299
Services Matrec inc. (Division Québec) 100-299
G.L.R. inc. 100-299
Finances Number of
employees
Fédération des Caisses
Desjardins du Québec 6,000 - 7,400
Banque Nationale du Canada 700 - 999
Banque Royale 100 - 299
Banque Laurentienne 100 - 299
CIBC 100 - 299
Accommodations Number of
employees
Fairmont le Château Frontenac 1,000 - 2,400
Hôtel Palace Royal 1,000 - 2,400
RCR 700 - 999
Village Vacances Valcartier 500 - 699
Camp de Jour Keno 500 - 699
Restauration Number of
employees
Mc Donald’s 1,000 - 2,400
Restaurant Normandin 1,000 - 2,400
Rôtisserie Saint-Hubert 700 - 999
Tim Hortons 500 - 699
Ashton (Chez) 500 - 699
APPENDIX
26. GLOSSARY
Economic Report
and Outlooks
Québec City CMA
2014 2015
24
Demographics
Natural growth
Changes in population numbers due to net births/
deaths.
Census metropolitan area (CMA)
Area formed by one or more neighbouring
municipalities located around a major urban
centre. To constitute a CMA, the urban centre must
have a population of at least 100,000. To constitute
a census agglomeration, the urban centre must
have a population of at least 10,000.
Net migration
The difference between the number of persons
moving into an area and the number of persons
leaving in a given year. This concept does not take
into account nationality.
Labour market
Unemployed
Persons who are available to work, have no paid
employment and are actively looking for a job.
Employed
Includes all people who did any work for pay or
profit as well as those who have a job and are
absent from work.
Replacement index
The ratio of the expected number of young people
entering the labour market (aged 20 to 29) to the
expected number of workers retiring (aged 55 to
64), multiplied by 100.
Active (working) population
Civilian population aged 15 years old and higher,
not living in an institution and or on a reserve,
either employed or unemployed.
Working-age population
Civilian population aged 15 to 64.
Average salary
The average wage/salary earned by full-time
workers (more than 30 hours/week) in a normal
working year.
Participation rate
Active population expressed as a percentage of
the total population aged 15 years and older.
Unemployment rate
Number of unemployed expressed as a percentage
of the active population.
Employment rate
Number of active workers expressed as a percentage
of the total population aged 15 years and older.
Economics
Bankruptcy
The state of being or becoming bankrupt.
Gross domestic product (GDP)
The total unduplicated value of the goods and
services produced in an economic area (such as a
region) during a given period, regardless of the
ownership (foreign/domestic) of the production
factors. GDP at basic prices corresponds to the
GDP calculated at market prices, less tax
deductions applicable to goods, plus consumer
subsidies.
Personal disposable income
Personal income less direct personal income taxes,
social insurance contributions and other current
transfers to public administrations.
Inflation rate
Loss of a currency’s buying power that results in a
generalized and lasting increase in prices.
Investments
and building permits
Capital investments
Capital expenditures related to new construction
projects and major improvements to existing
buildings, in addition to purchases of new
machinery and equipment. These expenditures do
not include purchases of land or used machinery or
equipment (unless imported).
Public-sector investments
Capital expenditures made by publicly-owned
companies and governments at the federal,
provincial and local levels.
Building permits
Building permits correspond to those issued by
municipalities for the construction of new buildings
or the undertaking of improvements.
Value of building permits
The value of planned building projects in the non-
residential and residential sectors.
27. 25
Housing market
Condominium
A legal structure under which the ownership of immovable
property is divided among various co-owners.
Rental housing
Residential dwellings or buildings available for rent.
Plex
Rental housing consisting of two to five dwellings.
Single-family house
Self-contained dwelling entirely detached from all other
dwellings or buildings.
Construction starts
Number of new residential units in a given geographical
region for which construction began during the reference
year.
Average selling price
Average value of all sales during a given period.
Re-sales
Number of sales during a given period.
Vacancy rate
Number of all apartments and townhouses that are vacant
and available for rent expressed as a percentage.
Tourism
Hotel occupancy rate
Ratio of the number of occupied hotel rooms to the number
of available hotel rooms in a given area.
Other
Durable good
Good that is not destroyed during use and that has a
relatively long life span.
Non-durable good
Consumer good that disappears or is destroyed upon its
first use. In almost all circumstances, the good depreciates
rapidly and/or is subject to changing trends.
Manufacturing sector
This sector is comprised of establishments primarily
engaged in the chemical, mechanical or physical
transformation of materials or substances into new
products.
Public services
Consolidation of general interest services that are provided
by private and government-owned corporations as well as
the government and education, health and social services.
Main abbreviations
n/a: not available
F: forecast
R: revised data
$: dollars
M: million
G: billion
GLOSSARY
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