1. Economics, Financial Analysis and Research
QNB Group
Qatar’s GDP is forecast to grow from QR631bn to QR798bn in 2013
QNB Group has updated its forecasts for the Qatari hydrocarbon prices and production to level off while the
economy for the period 2012-13, based on the recent non-hydrocarbon sector grows strongly.
release of full year 2011 GDP data by Qatar Statistics
Authority. The update includes various oil price scenarios. For the hydrocarbons sector, 2012 will be first full year for
Nominal GDP is forecast to surge by 19.8% in 2012 and the production of Liquefied natural Gas (LNG) at the
rise by a further 5.4% in 2013 to QR798bn as the non- maximum capacity of 77m tonnes. This represents a 16%
hydrocarbons sector takes over from hydrocarbons sector increase in production over 2011. A major new gas-to-
as the main driver of growth. liquids (GTL) facility (Pearl GTL Project) will also have its
first full year at new capacity in 2012 at an average of
The baseline forecasts assume that oil prices will average 139,000 barrels/day, leading to a 126% increase in output,
US$120 per barrel in both 2012 and 2013. Qatari crude oil followed by a further 25% increase in 2013.
prices have averaged US$119/barrel for the first quarter of
2012, with an average of US$125/barrel in March 2012. The increase in gas production to feed LNG trains and the
GTL plant will lead to a 24% increase in the production of
Given recent oil price volatility, it is important to consider condensates to an average of 805,000 barrels/day in
the impact on our forecasts of various oil price scenarios. If 2012-13. Condensates are a high-quality hydrocarbon that
the oil price in 2013 were to fall below to US$110/barrel, are associated with the production of natural gas and
then GDP would contract by 1.3%. Conversely, if oil prices become liquid at surface pressures.
rose from US$120/barrel in 2012 to US$130/barrel in
2013, then Qatar’s nominal GDP would grow by about These output increases combined with high oil prices,
12.2%, more than double the baseline growth forecast, which are highly correlated with other Qatari hydrocarbons
which assumes prices average US$120/barrel in 2012-13. prices such as LNG, will drive hydrocarbon GDP growth of
23% in 2012. Given the expectation of no oil price change
Annual Nominal GDP in 2013 over 2012, production increases will be the main
(QRbn, based on US$120/b average oil prices in 2012-13) driver of growth. As there are no major new hydrocarbons
projects scheduled for completion in 2013, growth is
expected to be modest at 3.6% taking hydrocarbons GDP
Non-hydrocarbons to QR465bn.
Hydrocarbons In the non-hydrocarbon sector, QNB Group forecasts
5.6% growth of 15.4% in 2012 and 8.9% in 2013, with the
19.8% corresponding values of QR308bn and QR333bn.
756 798
631 The sectors with the highest contribution to non-
41% 42%
hydrocarbon GDP are financial services, representing 26%
42% in 2012, followed by government services and
manufacturing, both with 22%.
59% 58%
58%
QNB Group expects government services to grow by 37%
in 2012 reaching QR67bn, mainly due to salary increases
2011 2012* 2013* for Qatari government employees.
Source: Qatar Statistics Authority, *QNB Group forecasts Based on QNB Group’s baseline forecasts for 2012 and
2013, GDP per capita will be US$112,929 and
US$114,340 respectively, which will rank Qatar as the
In its baseline scenario, QNB Group expects that richest country in the world.
hydrocarbon GDP will represent 59% of total GDP in 2012,
compared to 58% in 2011 due to higher prices and
increases in output. In 2013, the share of hydrocarbon
GDP will fall back to 58% as QNB Group expects
20120411efarqatarforecastsvsfinal-120414140633-Phpapp01.DocxFinal
Qatar’s GDP is forecast to grow from QR631bn to QR798bn in 2013

2. Economics, Financial Analysis and Research
QNB Group
20120411efarqatarforecastsvsfinal-120414140633-Phpapp01.DocxFinal
Qatar’s GDP is forecast to grow from QR631bn to QR798bn in 2013