1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QE Index continued its bullish trend for the sixth consecutive
session gaining around 75 points (0.73%) and tagging another new
52-week high. The index breached the 10,300.0 psychological level
as well as 10,350.0 and closed at its intraday high of 10,359.41. The
index is relentlessly hitting new 52-week highs over the past few days
on the back of large volumes indicating that this rally has enough
steam to accelerate further toward 10,400.0-10,450.0.
The QERI Index rallied aggressively and gained around 1.38%
tagging another new all-time high, surpassing its previous best of
2,945.27. Moreover, the index developed a bullish Marubozu candle
pattern indicating a likely advance and continuation of this strong rally.
In addition, the index has support for a further higher move from the
RSI which is pointing higher, while the MACD is widening away from
the signal line in a bullish manner with no trend reversal signs.
QIGD surged around 9.87% and surpassed the resistances of
QR37.80 and QR38.90 in a single swoop, tagging a new 52-week
high on the back of large volumes. This strong breach of resistances
has bullish implications. Moreover, both the RSI and the MACD lines
are moving higher supporting our positive technical outlook for the
stock. We believe based on the current higher push the stock may
rally further and test its resistance of QR41.50 on the upside.
Nakilat: Short-Term – Bounce Back
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Bounce Back
Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QGTS moved above the resistance of QR20.0 and made further
headway on the back of large volumes. The stock is now approaching
its immediate resistance of QR20.60. A breakout above this level may
spark additional buying interest and the stock may proceed ahead to
test QR21.30. Moreover, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence,
while the MACD is diverging away from the signal line and is rising
further up, thus signaling strength.
BRES rose by around 5.42 % and cleared the resistance of QR28.45
tagging a new 52-week high. Notably, volumes were also high on the
breakout indicating rising buying interest. BRES developed a bullish
Marubozu candle pattern indicating a further advance. The stock is
showing strength since clearing the 21-day moving average and is in
uptrend mode. We believe BRES may test and surpass QR29.25,
targeting the February 2012 high of QR29.90.
VFQS breached the resistances of QR9.98 and the ascending
trendline, tagging a new 52-week high after consolidating below this
level over the past few days. Given the strong momentum indicators
which are in uptrend mode, VFQS could be ready for a breakout
above the October 2009 high of QR10.20 targeting the QR10.50
level. However, a decline below the ascending trendline near the
QR10.0 level may indicate a false breakout.
Page 1 of 2

2. Name (Ticker)
Last Close
Trend
Short Term
Support
Long Term
First
Resistance
Second
First
Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index)
10,359.41
UP
UP
10,000.00
9,850.00
10,470.00
10,575.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index)
2,985.84
UP
UP
2,900.00
2,800.00
3050.00
3,125.00
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
32.35
UP
UP
24.00
23.20
32.90
33.65
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)
70.00
UP
UP
63.90
62.40
84.20
87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
57.00
UP
UP
42.00
39.50
57.14
58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)
68.70
UP
UP
65.00
64.30
78.50
79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
59.00
UP
UP
47.90
45.00
60.80
61.50
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)
64.90
UP
UP
58.50
57.00
66.30
67.15
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)
31.05
UP
DOWN
29.15
28.75
43.90
45.00
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)
48.40
FLAT
DOWN
47.50
46.70
69.10
78.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)
134.90
FLAT
UP
129.90
128.50
138.50
140.15
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
168.90
UP
UP
144.10
142.00
175.20
176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)
170.00
UP
UP
140.00
132.10
172.00
174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
58.70
UP
UP
30.50
29.50
60.15
61.25
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)*
39.50
UP
UP
20.36
20.00
41.50
43.75
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)*
29.20
UP
UP
22.80
19.50
29.90
30.50
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)
23.52
UP
UP
17.06
16.00
25.30
25.90
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
138.30
UP
UP
108.00
98.10
146.00
148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)*
10.09
UP
UP
8.50
8.24
10.20
11.15
Nakilat (QGTS QD)*
20.44
UP
UP
15.08
14.52
21.15
21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD)
88.90
UP
UP
58.20
56.70
89.70
90.25
Banks and Financial Services
Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer G
Industrials
Industrials
Real Estate
Real Estate
Telecom
Telecom
Transportation
Transportat
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1>
Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2>
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3>
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar
Ahmed M. Shehada
Keith Whitney
Sahbi Kasraoui
QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Trading
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Sales
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
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