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The Future of Shipping
- 1. DNV GL © 2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 20141
Ole.Vidar.Nilsen@dnvgl.com
The Future of Shipping
Pori, Finland - June 10, 2015
- 2. DNV GL © 2014
The Future of Shipping
2
- 3. DNV GL © 20143
Notes:
Sulphur/emission to air
NOX/emission to air
BW
Other
“New”
Some of the background for “everything”:
Regulatory Pressure –> timeline towards 2020
- 4. DNV GL © 20144
Notes:
Sulphur/emission to air
NOX/emission to air
BW
Other
“New” (since 2013)
Some of the background for “everything”:
Regulatory Pressure –> timeline towards 2020
- 5. DNV GL © 2014
Towards 2020….
5
Alternative fuels
Beyond HFO
First-movers in
hybrid, battery,
methanol…
Energy efficient
technologies
Energy efficient
design
Improved design
process
Operational
improvement
Energy efficient
operations
Big data, sensors,
connectivity
Big data opportunities
More than buzz words
- 6. DNV GL © 2014
The future fuel mix will be more diverse
6
Traditional fuel
HFO
MDO
MGO
Realistic alternatives
LNG
ULHFO/Hybrid fuels
Methanol
LPG
Fully electric
Hybrid (battery + fuel)
Future options
Hydrogen
Gas to liquids (GTL)
Compressed natural gas
(CNG)
Wind
Solar
Ethanol
Vegetable oil
Biogas
Nuclear
- 7. DNV GL © 2014
LNG as fuel – nothing new, or…. ?
“LNG-ready” a feasible option
also for larger vessels
Infrastructure under rapid
development (“chicken &
egg)
7
600-700 LNG-as-fuel vessels
by 2020 seems like a realistic
figure
From…:
To…:
- 8. DNV GL © 2014
Hybrid ships – a great future
8
About 35 in operation or on
order (ferry, tug, PSV)
Pilot projects for hybrid
systems indicate 15% fuel
savings, compared to
conventional systems
Most applicable for vessels
with variable operational
profile and low load
operation
- 9. DNV GL © 2014
Battery – Zero emission technology for “special markets”
9
Today: 2-3 battery-
only vessels in
operation
2030: “Many”
Battery technology
is becoming cheaper
and more robust
Promising
technology to meet
stricter env.
requirements in
special areas
Enormous interest in
DNV GL’s “Maritime
Battery Forum”
created 2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhYaNHx5D00
- 11. DNV GL © 2014
Methanol – “More to come”, says Stena Line
11
The world’s first methanol
vessel - No sulphur or
particles
Supply issue remains,
however
Conversion costs of existing
vessels less than LNG-as-
fuel conversion
- 12. DNV GL © 2014
ReVolt: A Vision for the Future
12
Battery powered
Highly Efficient
Autonomous
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhYaNHx5D00
- 13. DNV GL © 2014
HYBRID FUELS – ECA compliance ok. But…
13
Ultra low sulphur fuels complying with
the 0.1% sulphur limits
This new fuel is rumoured to be 10-20%
cheaper than MGO and available
Fuel is available in several locations
globally
Operational experience indicate
significant challenges with hybrid fuels –
high focus from industry
Can become a significant contributor to
SECA solution depending on price and
availability
Price/availability
- 14. DNV GL © 2014
Innovation in energy efficient design
14
Energy harvesting Innovate hull shapes – and
bio inspired solutions
Design for actual
conditions
- 15. DNV GL © 2014
Improved design process – the virtual ship laboratory
15
Concurrent system
engineering
Design for actual
and extreme
conditions
Virtual identity Team collaboration
across geographies
- 16. DNV GL © 201416
Concurrent system
engineering
Design for actual
and extreme
conditions
Virtual model
identity
Team collaboration
across geographies
Improved design process – the virtual ship laboratory
- 17. DNV GL © 2014
Energy efficient operations
17
Increased cargo capacity,
adapted to demand
Horizontal and vertical
integration - pooling and
alliances, consolidation of
logistics chains
Performance management –
manage by numbers,
benchmark, cultural
change
- 18. DNV GL © 2014
Vertical integration – thinking differently about logistics
18
Door-to-door
cost
Carbon
footprint
Consolidating cargo
Frequency and efficiency
Getting the right ship
-70% -25%
- 19. DNV GL © 2014
Digital technologies
– a catalyst for smarter shipping
19
- 20. DNV GL © 2014
System optimization – untapped opportunities
20
Maximum 30-40%
of energy available
in the fuel is used
Modelling of
advanced data flows
is becoming more
accessible
Used for design,
retrofitting and
operation
optimisation of
ships
Sensors for
monitoring are
becoming more
common – an
enabler for systems
optimisation
- 21. DNV GL © 2014
Smart maintenance
21
Risk-based
maintenance: a
more precise
estimate of when a
component should
be replaced
- 22. DNV GL © 2014
Measure & monitor - Performance management
will become a key driver for competitiveness
Focus on:
Data quality
SMART KPIs
Extensive filtering
Automated sensor-based
monitoring
Improvement opportunities:
Capability to optimize
Improved decision support
Complete overview
Increased confidence
- 23. DNV GL © 2014
SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
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