Challenges for the Ukrainian horticultural market in the coming year & and their connection with the new nature of work (for the training course "The Future of Work: Preparing for Disruption"

1. Ukraine Fresh
F&V Value chains
and
THE CHANGING
NATURE OF
WORK
Sergii Potapov, Ukraine fresh F&V VC specialist
September 2019

2. UKRAINE 20182019 Production of
main AGRO products (MIO MT):
• Cereals and legumes - 69,6
• Fruits and vegetables -37,2
• Technical crops - 22,5
• Livestock Products - 13,5
• Processed products - 12,6
* 6-issue book "Agribusiness in Ukraine"
The fresh fruits and vegetables is 23,9%
At all Ukraine volume of commodity production

3. Only 0.2% of the F&V volume (379.4 kT) is exported.
The export share determines the level of development of F&V business as a whole.
Export quality necessarily require a different development of supply chain
relationships in the formation of value added.
* 6-issue book "Agribusiness in Ukraine"
Veg 217,25 kT
Fruits &
berries 143 kT
Grape 0,1 kT
Melon 19 kT

4. 4
Maps of regions specialization related climatic advantages
Despite 28 years of independence of the state, Ukraine is focused on supply model
as in more northern regions of the former USSR.
USSR. Agriculture Map 1965
North America Climate Map 2006

5. 5
Onion - the main product, an example of which shows trends in the Ukraine market of fresh F&V
Countries outside the former "Soviet empire" have
CLEARLY determine the market role.
country'sinexportmode
country'sinimportmode

6. • Net exporter? Net importer? Who?
• The first country in the World, which
makes early prediction of volume
production and prices for onions and
enables each growers to participate in
«casino».
• First look says Ukraine as part of the
Soviet Union, which should consume
significant amounts of onions. There is
an opportunity to grow - grow all those
who have money and land.
Onion import/export activity in Ukraine.
2013* Information should be checked
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Ukraine T 82 34829 10683 41825 22583 1382 781
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Ukraine T 66159 2117 68213 1516 2489 19027 51000
Ukraine TOTAL (without forecast)
Reporting Countries Export Statistics (Partner Country: World)
Reporting Countries Import Statistics (Partner Country: World)
Commodity: 070310, Onions And Shallots, Fresh Or Chilled
Annual Series: 2007 - 2012
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Commodity: 070310, Onions And Shallots, Fresh Or Chilled
Annual Series: 2007 - 2012
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Import Year Ukraine
2008 32712
2010 40309
2011 20094
Diff
Export Year Ukraine
2007 66077
2009 57530
2012 17645
2013 50219
Diff

7. «Working with Smallholders. A Handbook for Firms Building. Sustainable Supply Chains.» IFC, July 2013
The size of enterprises, engaged in the production of fresh F&V is small and there are no stable links between them.

8. The coming changes that will affect the distribution of labor in AGRO Ukraine:
• opening of the land market in October 2020
• reducing the area under fresh F&V and increasing yields
*28 million hectares will begin to participate
in the land market (Poland's area of 31,27 million Ha)
Area under fruit and berry, thousand ha
Fruits and berries yield, tons per ha
Ukraine, statistics
* 5-issue book "Agribusiness in Ukraine"

9. Crop farming, which accounts for 73 percent of agricultural output, dominates Ukrainian agriculture. Leading this sector is grain
production. Ukraine’s major grains crops are wheat, corn, barley, and rye. Ukraine is the fourth largest exporter of corn and
barley, and the sixth largest exporter of wheat. For six consecutive years (2013-2018), Ukraine harvested over 60 million tons of
grain annually. According to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations statistics, by 2020, Ukraine’s cereals and
soybean output is estimated to reach 70 million tons and reach 78 million tons by 2024. With significant improvements in yields,
many experts estimate that Ukraine’s total grain output potential is 140 million tons.
* Ukraine - Agricultural Sector

10. What
consequences:
• the release of about 3.5 million
agribusiness workers over the next 5 years
• increase in labor migration to Europe
• urbanization growth, increasing social
tension in cities
• increasing the burden on the pension
system… and much more.

11. What to do next?
Are there any
answers to these
and other
questions and
where to look for
them?