柏瑞週報 20200703

1. 3 July
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
Powell Fauci
10
0.6693%
10
-0.428%
•
0.05%
600 0.30%
641
•
0.92%
0.19%
0.33%
Bloomberg 2020/7/2
3.43
0.60
1.83
0.30
1.37
0.72
3.19
2.50
2.00
1.44
1.46
1.77
-0.81
2.00
3.42
2.33
-0.10
-0.07
-0.01
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.12
0.19
0.24
0.28
0.30
0.30
0.33
0.55
0.92
0.92
-
-
ESG ( )
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
•
S&P 500
1.50%
600 2.38%
DAX 3.54%
• 11
225 0.51%
300 4.76%
•
0.25%
Bloomberg 2020/7/2
-2.31
-0.80
-2.65
-0.09
5.70
2.02
1.83
6.09
1.60
2.32
5.79
7.08
2.37
5.97
4.88
8.84
-0.71
-0.51
-0.40
0.25
0.26
0.79
1.21
1.24
1.50
1.60
1.90
2.15
2.38
2.87
3.54
4.76
RTS
Nikkei 225
MSCI
BAML
BOVESPA
MSCI
H
S&P 500
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
600
SENSEX
DAX
300
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
3
OPEC 6
20 100%
• 6 26
720 ( )
71
Bloomberg 2020/7/2
1.24
2.76
-3.15
4.79
5.27
9.85
4.78
4.83
0.73
10.43
9.02
5.94
-0.27
0.66
1.08
2.53
2.82
3.05
3.25
3.86
4.08
4.98
5.09
8.27
LME
LME
LME
CRB
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 71 48
13 12
31
• 153
123 30
19
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/7/1
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
•
Trump
• 6
6
• 6 480
300
6 11.1%(
2)
143
6
Bloomberg 2020/7/2
( 1)
( 2)

9. PAGE 8
•
0.05%( 1)
•
6 580
ThyssenKrupp Elevator
Forterra Finance
New Enterprise Stone & Lime
•
5 8.2%( 2)
• 2020
7,000
Volcker Rule 400
Bloomberg 2020/7/2
( 1)
( 2) ( )

10. PAGE 9
Bloomberg 2020/7/2
• 6 5
67.5 75.7( 1)
5
13.9% 2
• 6
(CPI) 0.3% 5 0.1%
0.2% CPI
0.8% 0.9%
(PEPP) 1.6
•
Barnier
• 6
-34( 2) 3 -8 2
( 1)
( 2)

11. PAGE 10
( 1) PMI
( 2) Markit PMI
Bloomberg 2020/7/2
• 6
(PMI) 50.9( 1)
2
PMI 54.4 7
•
25
10
•
SBI Capital Markets Ltd.
3
9 30
• 6 Markit PMI
47.2( 1) 3
37.5
2 6 Markit
PMI 5 38.3 51.6 3
12 4

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/7/3
/ /
7/6 6 ISM 50.4 45.4
7/6 6 Markit PMI( ) 46.9 46.7
7/6 7 Sentix - -24.8
7/6 5 ( ) - -19.6%
7/6 5 ( ) -27.0% -36.6%
7/7 5 ( ) -21.6% -25.3%
7/7 5 ( ) -0.9% -0.6%
7/7 RBA 0.25% 0.25%
7/7 BNM 1.75% 2.00%
7/8 5 ¥1,425.8b ¥262.7b
7/9 5 ( ) -3.2% -12.0%
7/9 6 M2 ( ) 5.8% 5.1%
7/9 6 CPI( ) 2.5% 2.4%
7/9 6 PPI( ) -3.2% -3.7%
7/10 6 PPI ( ) -0.2% -0.8%
7/10 6 PPI( ) -2.0% -2.7%
7/10-7/15 6 ( ) 3,038.8b 3,190.0b

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.14 (7/2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 144 (7/2) 5 : 131
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.00 (7/2)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 449 (7/2) 5 : 357

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.96 (7/2)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.86 (7/2)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 641 (7/2) 5 : 480
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 600 (7/2) 5 : 452

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.93 (7/2)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.89 (7/2)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 523 (7/2) 5 : 394
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 759 (7/2) 5 : 490

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.41 (7/2)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.91 (7/2)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 478 (7/2) 5 : 366
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 419 (7/2) 5 : 320

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.27 (7/2)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.07 (7/2)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 774 (7/2) 5 : 581
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 304 (7/2) 5 : 216

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.4 (7/2) 5 : 16.0
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.8 (7/2) 5 : 17.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 18.3 (7/2) 5 : 14.5
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 19.7 (7/2) 5 : 16.2

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.6 (7/2) 5 : 11.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.1 (7/2) 5 : 12.0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.0 (7/2) 5 : 17.4
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.5 (7/2) 5 : 12.0
/ /

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 27.68 (7/2) 5 : 16.91
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 51.0 (7/2) 5 : 64.0
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 54.9 (7/2) 5 : 65.2
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 505 (7/2) 5 : 382
/ /

22. PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/7/2 '16/7/2 '17/7/2 '18/7/2 '19/7/2 '20/7/2
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
'15/7/2 '16/7/2 '17/7/2 '18/7/2 '19/7/2 '20/7/2
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/7/2 '16/7/2 '17/7/2 '18/7/2 '19/7/2 '20/7/2
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/7/2 '16/7/2 '17/7/2 '18/7/2 '19/7/2 '20/7/2
5 1
31.0% 0.3%
28.3% 0.2%
5 1
26.0% 0.2%
30.8% 0.1%
5 1
28.5% 0.2%
29.5% 0.1%
5 1
26.2% 0.9%
25.6% 0.1%

23. PAGE 22
TR109179
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898