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31 May
2019
PAGE 2
•
10
2.213%
10
• 0.17%
CCC
0.39% 0.12%
462.1
•
0.32%
0.25%
0.63%
Bloomberg 2019/5/30
-0.85
-0.76
-0.11
-1.33
0.04
0.45
0.86
0.77
0.98
0.52
1.05
0.74
1.81
1.03
-0.04
-0.17
-0.12
-0.10
-0.06
0.09
0.10
0.24
0.25
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.39
0.45
0.57
0.63
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
• Trump
S&P 500 1.18%
225 0.99%
•
600 0.46%
•
300 1.60%
•
SENSEX 2.63%
• GDP
BOVESPA
3.78%
• 0.26%
Bloomberg 2019/5/30
-5.33
-5.91
-5.45
-4.93
-3.58
0.58
-9.34
-9.46
-5.33
3.05
-7.81
-6.95
2.05
0.25
-2.08
1.15
-1.18
-0.99
-0.77
-0.46
-0.42
0.26
0.29
0.47
0.72
0.87
1.03
1.60
2.63
2.74
3.67
3.78
500
Nikkei 225
MSCI
600
DAX
MSCI
H
RTS
MSCI
300
SENSEX
MSCI
MSCI
BOVESPA
% %
PAGE 4
•
OPEC+
• 5 24
28.2 ( ) 85.7
220.4
Bloomberg EIA 2019/5/30
-11.45
-8.15
-8.78
-0.83
0.40
-2.98
-9.36
-0.25
-8.74
5.68
22.94
23.50
-2.28
-1.31
-1.25
-0.86
0.41
1.04
1.63
2.32
2.76
8.22
9.41
11.93
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 103 84
18 20
19
• 69 61
19 30
5
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/5/29
PAGE 7
• Trump Trump
• Trump 6
10 5%
5% 10 25%
•
4 2.1%
2.0% 3
2.6% 1.7%
• 1 GDP
3.2% 3.1%
(PCE) 1%
1.3% 3
Bloomberg 2019/5/30
( 1) S&P 500
( 2) ( )
PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
CNO
• 5
129.2 134.1( 2)
• Uber Uber
Uber
10
Moody’s Uber B1
Bloomberg 2019/5/30
( 2)
( 1)
PAGE 9
• 5 4.9%
5% 6
( 1)
• May 6 7
Boris
Johnson
May
( 2)
•
35
Salvini
Salvini
•
•
8
20
Bloomberg 2019/5/30
( 1) ( )
( 2)
PAGE 10
•
• PMI 50
5 PMI
50.1 49.4( 1)
PMI 54.3 PMI 53.3
• GDP GDP
0.2%( 2) 2016 4
• GDP
0.2% 2018 2
2019 GDP 1.1%~2.1%
0.8%~1.8%
Bloomberg 2019/5/30
PMI 50
( 1)
( 2) GDP
PAGE 12
Bloomberg
/ /
6/3 5 ISM 53.0 52.8
6/3 5 50.0 50.2
6/3 1 ( ) 2.6% 5.7%
6/3 5 - 51.8
6/4 4 - -2.1%
6/4 4 -0.9% 1.9%
6/4 5 CPI( ) 1.1% 1.3%
6/4 RBA 1.25% 1.50%
6/4 4 ( ) 1.5% -6.1%
6/5 5 ADP 178k 275k
6/6 4 -$50.5b -$50.0b
6/6 1 GDP ( ) 1.2% 1.2%
6/6 ECB 0.00% 0.00%
6/6 RBI 5.75% 6.00%
6/7 5 190k 263k
6/7 5 3.6% 3.6%
6/7 5 $3089.50b $3094.95b
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 125.0 (5/30) 5 : 126.7
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.50 (5/30)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.54 (5/30)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 332.67 (5/30) 5 : 319.1
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.47 (5/30)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 462.1 (5/30) 5 : 456.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.47 (5/30)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 412.0 (5/30) 5 : 440.1
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.36 (5/30)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 409.0 (5/30) 5 : 374.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.50 (5/30)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 532.3 (5/30) 5 : 507.9
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.01 (5/30)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 372.06 (5/30) 5 : 343.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.61 (5/30)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 346.17 (5/30) 5 : 333.4
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.82 (5/30)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 565.0 (5/30) 5 : 563.3
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.84 (5/30)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 265.27 (5/30) 5 : 255.2
PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.5 (5/30) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.8 (5/30) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.8 (5/30) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 14.8 (5/30) 5 : 17.3
PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.3 (5/30) 5 : 12.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.5 (5/30) 5 : 12.9
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 19.4 (5/30) 5 : 18.5
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.9 (5/30) 5 : 12.8
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.30 (5/30) 5 : 15.01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 61.7 (5/30) 5 : 64.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 61.3 (5/30) 5 : 69.8
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 376.9 (5/30) 5 : 366.7
PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/5/30 '15/5/30 '16/5/30 '17/5/30 '18/5/30 '19/5/30
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/5/30 '15/5/30 '16/5/30 '17/5/30 '18/5/30 '19/5/30
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/5/30 '15/5/30 '16/5/30 '17/5/30 '18/5/30 '19/5/30
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/5/30 '15/5/30 '16/5/30 '17/5/30 '18/5/30 '19/5/30
過去5年 過去1週
總報酬率 34.5% 0.3%
利息報酬率 29.7% 0.3%
過去5年 過去1週
總報酬率 19.9% -0.1%
利息報酬率 31.6% 0.1%
過去5年 過去1週
總報酬率 27.2% 0.1%
利息報酬率 30.7% 0.2%
過去5年 過去1週
總報酬率 18.6% 0.4%
利息報酬率 26.5% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR108119
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20190531

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 2.213% 10 • 0.17% CCC 0.39% 0.12% 462.1 • 0.32% 0.25% 0.63% Bloomberg 2019/5/30 -0.85 -0.76 -0.11 -1.33 0.04 0.45 0.86 0.77 0.98 0.52 1.05 0.74 1.81 1.03 -0.04 -0.17 -0.12 -0.10 -0.06 0.09 0.10 0.24 0.25 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.39 0.45 0.57 0.63 - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • Trump S&P 500 1.18% 225 0.99% • 600 0.46% • 300 1.60% • SENSEX 2.63% • GDP BOVESPA 3.78% • 0.26% Bloomberg 2019/5/30 -5.33 -5.91 -5.45 -4.93 -3.58 0.58 -9.34 -9.46 -5.33 3.05 -7.81 -6.95 2.05 0.25 -2.08 1.15 -1.18 -0.99 -0.77 -0.46 -0.42 0.26 0.29 0.47 0.72 0.87 1.03 1.60 2.63 2.74 3.67 3.78 500 Nikkei 225 MSCI 600 DAX MSCI H RTS MSCI 300 SENSEX MSCI MSCI BOVESPA % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • OPEC+ • 5 24 28.2 ( ) 85.7 220.4 Bloomberg EIA 2019/5/30 -11.45 -8.15 -8.78 -0.83 0.40 -2.98 -9.36 -0.25 -8.74 5.68 22.94 23.50 -2.28 -1.31 -1.25 -0.86 0.41 1.04 1.63 2.32 2.76 8.22 9.41 11.93 LME LME CRB LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 103 84 18 20 19 • 69 61 19 30 5 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/5/29
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • Trump Trump • Trump 6 10 5% 5% 10 25% • 4 2.1% 2.0% 3 2.6% 1.7% • 1 GDP 3.2% 3.1% (PCE) 1% 1.3% 3 Bloomberg 2019/5/30 ( 1) S&P 500 ( 2) ( )
  • 9. PAGE 8 • ( 1) • CNO • 5 129.2 134.1( 2) • Uber Uber Uber 10 Moody’s Uber B1 Bloomberg 2019/5/30 ( 2) ( 1)
  • 10. PAGE 9 • 5 4.9% 5% 6 ( 1) • May 6 7 Boris Johnson May ( 2) • 35 Salvini Salvini • • 8 20 Bloomberg 2019/5/30 ( 1) ( ) ( 2)
  • 11. PAGE 10 • • PMI 50 5 PMI 50.1 49.4( 1) PMI 54.3 PMI 53.3 • GDP GDP 0.2%( 2) 2016 4 • GDP 0.2% 2018 2 2019 GDP 1.1%~2.1% 0.8%~1.8% Bloomberg 2019/5/30 PMI 50 ( 1) ( 2) GDP
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg / / 6/3 5 ISM 53.0 52.8 6/3 5 50.0 50.2 6/3 1 ( ) 2.6% 5.7% 6/3 5 - 51.8 6/4 4 - -2.1% 6/4 4 -0.9% 1.9% 6/4 5 CPI( ) 1.1% 1.3% 6/4 RBA 1.25% 1.50% 6/4 4 ( ) 1.5% -6.1% 6/5 5 ADP 178k 275k 6/6 4 -$50.5b -$50.0b 6/6 1 GDP ( ) 1.2% 1.2% 6/6 ECB 0.00% 0.00% 6/6 RBI 5.75% 6.00% 6/7 5 190k 263k 6/7 5 3.6% 3.6% 6/7 5 $3089.50b $3094.95b
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE 10 (%) (bp) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 125.0 (5/30) 5 : 126.7 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 3.50 (5/30) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.54 (5/30) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 332.67 (5/30) 5 : 319.1
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.47 (5/30) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 462.1 (5/30) 5 : 456.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.47 (5/30) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 412.0 (5/30) 5 : 440.1 (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.36 (5/30) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 409.0 (5/30) 5 : 374.4 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.50 (5/30) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 532.3 (5/30) 5 : 507.9
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.01 (5/30) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 372.06 (5/30) 5 : 343.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.61 (5/30) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 346.17 (5/30) 5 : 333.4
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.82 (5/30) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 565.0 (5/30) 5 : 563.3 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.84 (5/30) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 265.27 (5/30) 5 : 255.2
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 15.5 (5/30) 5 : 16.6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 16.8 (5/30) 5 : 17.5 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 13.8 (5/30) 5 : 15.3 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 14.8 (5/30) 5 : 17.3
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.3 (5/30) 5 : 12.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 11.5 (5/30) 5 : 12.9 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 19.4 (5/30) 5 : 18.5 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 11.9 (5/30) 5 : 12.8
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 17.30 (5/30) 5 : 15.01 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 61.7 (5/30) 5 : 64.6 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 61.3 (5/30) 5 : 69.8 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 376.9 (5/30) 5 : 366.7
  • 22. PAGE 21 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/5/30 '15/5/30 '16/5/30 '17/5/30 '18/5/30 '19/5/30 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% '14/5/30 '15/5/30 '16/5/30 '17/5/30 '18/5/30 '19/5/30 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/5/30 '15/5/30 '16/5/30 '17/5/30 '18/5/30 '19/5/30 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '14/5/30 '15/5/30 '16/5/30 '17/5/30 '18/5/30 '19/5/30 過去5年 過去1週 總報酬率 34.5% 0.3% 利息報酬率 29.7% 0.3% 過去5年 過去1週 總報酬率 19.9% -0.1% 利息報酬率 31.6% 0.1% 過去5年 過去1週 總報酬率 27.2% 0.1% 利息報酬率 30.7% 0.2% 過去5年 過去1週 總報酬率 18.6% 0.4% 利息報酬率 26.5% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR108119 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898