The document summarizes a presentation given by Bev May at the Digital Analytics Association Annual Symposium on May 7, 2015 in New York. The presentation discussed how chaos theory demonstrates that analytics and product design are becoming obsolete due to the butterfly effect, whereby small changes can lead to large unpredictable outcomes. As systems become more complex and interconnected, it is no longer possible to fully understand or predict user experiences, outputs, or the reasons for certain outcomes. The presentation argues UX design must shift from a focus on individual interfaces to designing rules and systems across multiple interfaces and scenarios, while analytics needs to move from traditional methods to automated monitoring and predictive modeling.
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Chaos Theory: How Real-Time Data is Making Analytics and Product Design Obsolete at DAA NY 2015
1. OXFORD TECHNOLOGY
VENTURESâ¨
Digital Analytics Associationâ¨
Annual Symposium 2015
Chaos TheoryÂ
How Analytics and Product Design
Are Becoming Obsolete
May 7, 2015 New York, NY
Bev Mayâ¨
UXAwards.org @UXAwards @OxfordTech â¨
6. Oxford Tech + UX: DAA Symposium, May 7 2015 |
⣠research and identify
customer needs,
competitors and market
context
CREATERESEARCH
⣠generate hypotheses
and solutions to solve
the needs in the best
way (as prototypes or
launched products)
TEST
⣠test, iterate and reďŹne
USER EXPERIENCE DESIGN
â¨
DESIGNING THE EXPERIENCE OF THE USER
33. Oxford Tech + UX: DAA Symposium, May 7 2015 |
http://d1kcl3yiuixneo.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/swarm-of-monarch-butterflies-el-rosario-sanctuary-mexico-6811270308-800x533.jpg
The study of dynamic systems that are highly sensitive
to initial conditions, and where small differences in
initial conditions will yield widely diverging and
unpredictable outcomes- even though future behavior
is fully determined by the initial conditions.
34. Oxford Tech + UX: DAA Symposium, May 7 2015 | http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect
When a small change in the initial state of a system can
result in large differences in a later state.
âDoes the ďŹap of a butterďŹyâs wings in Brazil set off a
tornado in Texas?â
The ďŹap of the butterďŹyâs wings in Brazil 3 weeks prior
did not CAUSE the tornado â it formed a part of the
total set of many initial conditions that, in combination,
led to the tornado in ways that could not have been
predicted
38. Oxford Tech + UX: DAA Symposium, May 7 2015 |
FOUR NEW TRUTHS
1. we can no longer have any real idea what the âuserâ experiences
2. we can no longer predict outputs of our product designs
3. we can no longer measure, let alone analyze, the totality of our
product experience (only individual parts of it)
4. we can no longer really know WHY many things happen (especially
from single-source analytics)
https://9to5mac.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/screen-shot-2012-11-14-at-10-04-27-pm.png
50. THANKS!
Chaos TheoryÂ
How Analytics and Product Design
Are Becoming Obsolete
DAA Annual Symposium
May 7, 2015 New York, NY
Bev Mayâ¨
UXAwards.org @UXAwards @OxfordTech â¨