1. 9th May 2012
LED strategy review

2. LED strategy review

3. LED strategy review
Pilot Installations!

4. LED strategy review
But where is the data?
The Reality
18w T8 – old technology
14w T5 – 1350 lumens
7w - 600 lumens?
Market Innovators
Some Big Claims
The Reality
18w T8 life is 20000 hrs

5. LED strategy review

6. LED strategy review
The Classic Technology Adoption Curve
Market % of sales
LED Sales
Projection
Time

7. LED strategy review
The Classic Technology Adoption Curve
30 - 90%
Market % of sales
LED Sales
Projection
Market Stabilisation 2018?
Time

8. LED strategy review
The Classic Technology Adoption Curve
30 - 90%
Market % of sales
LED Sales
Projection
x% It could be 2012 for
some product group
Tipping Point X Market Stabilisation 2018?
Time

9. LED strategy review
The Classic Technology Adoption Curve
30 - 90%
Market % of sales
LED Sales
Projection
x%
Tipping Point X Market Stabilisation 2018?
Time

10. LED strategy review
LED Technology Adoption Process

11. LED strategy review
LED Technology Adoption Process
TH Downlighter
FL Downlighter
Short T5
Long T5
100 lm/W LED

12. LED strategy review
LED Technology Adoption Process
TH Downlighter
FL Downlighter
Short T5
Long T5
LED

13. LED strategy review
LED Technology Adoption Process
Emergency
Dimming
Controls
Integration
Colour change
Tuneable white
Form factor

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Standardisation

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An international Consortium of
interested parties to establish
standardisation to promote market
adoption

16. LED strategy review
LED Development Roadmaps
Driven by
Driven by efficacy or Cost?
cost
Cost - Lm/£
2011
Driven by
efficacy
Efficacy - Lm/w

17. LED strategy review
LED Development Roadmaps
LED Efficacy
Efficacy - Lm/w
3 – 4 yrs200 lm/w warm / cool converge 150 llm/w

18. LED strategy review
LED Development Roadmaps
LED Costs Luminaire Cost
60
Cost - £/klm
45
30
15
0
LEDs and Drivers are 60% of cost today
LEDs down 75%, Drivers down 25%
Resulting in 35% reduction in Luminaire cost

19. LED strategy review
Understanding the client motivation
Purely financial Compliance Social
Energy and Part L Responsibility or
maintenance Breeam emotional driver for
Contracted targets latest technologies
Detailed LCC modelling
Watch out for the false
comparison!

20. LED strategy review
Understanding the client motivation
Purely financial Compliance Social
Energy and Part L Responsibility or
maintenance Breeam emotional driver for
Contracted targets latest technologies

21. LED strategy review
Understanding the client motivation
Purely financial Compliance Social
Energy and Part L Responsibility or
maintenance Breeam emotional driver for
Contracted targets latest technologies

22. LED strategy review
Understanding the client motivation
Recent project
Fluorescent solution - 340kw with capital cost of £600k
100% LED solution – 65kw reduction with cost premium of £300k
But....................

23. LED strategy review
But are they ready today for current applications?
Areas that embrace a specific advantage of LEDs
Cold Environments
Any Area over 3m
Exterior Lighting (Low levels)
Some Applications offer greater opportunity than others

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25. LED strategy review
Mass Market Adoption is most likely to be led by
Lamp type rather than Client or Application

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Tungsten Halogen
50000 hour Life Cycle Cost
Advantages Watch out for........
Lamp life Light Distribution
80% energy saving Lighting Quality
Very little forward heat

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Lighting Distribution Lighting Quality

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50000 hour Life Cycle Cost
LCC Graphic from Vision
Advantages Watch out for............
Lumen maintenance Lumen packages not big enough
Lamp life Marginal energy saving
Fully controllable

29. LED strategy review
Compact Fluorescent
50000 hour Life Cycle Cost
Advantages Watch out for............
50% energy saving Glare control
Lamp life
Fully controllable

30. LED strategy review
Compact Fluorescent
Glare Control is Essential
17000 cd/m²
300000- cd/m²

31. LED strategy review
Compact Fluorescent
Colour Temperature Mode

32. LED strategy review
50000 hour Life Cycle Cost
Advantages Watch out for............
Lamp life Glare control
Fully controllable Marginal energy saving
Form Factors 14w T5 - 50 to 65 llm/w
35w T5 - 70 to 80 llm/w

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Form Factor could change here

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Life Cycle Cost Energy Lamp Life
80% x 10
10% x6
50% x4
10% x2

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Massive Driver for Project
refurbishment in the future

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Communicating our understanding
ANY QUESTIONS?

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