Official poll results from the Oakland mayoral and city council poll commissioned by www.oakmayor2014.com and conducted by FM3 Research. FM3 completed 1,012 telephone interviews with likely November 2014 voters in the City of Oakland • Interviews were conducted September 8-14, 2014 • Interviews conducted on landlines and cell phones • Interviews conducted in English, Spanish and Chinese (both Cantonese and Mandarin) 712 interviews were conducted citywide An additional 300 interviews were conducted in the 2nd, 4th and 6th City Council Districts, yielding the following total number of interviews in each District: • 209 in City Council District 2 • 206 in City Council District 4 • 211 in City Council District 6 Margin of sampling error of +/-3.7% for the citywide results Margin of sampling error of +/-6.9% for the City Council District results Due to rounding, not all percentages sum to 100% • Names and ballot designations for all certified candidates in each race were read to respondents. • The candidates were read in random order. • Respondents were asked for their first, second and third choices. • To model ranked-choice voting, undecided voters were eliminated. Supporters of the lowest-ranked candidate were re-allocated based on their second-and third-choice preferences. The process was repeated until a candidate reached majority support.

1. 220-4006
September 8-14, 2014Assessing the November 2014 Races for Oakland Mayor and City Council
Results of a telephone survey conducted in English,
Spanish, and Chinese, and on landlines and cell phones
Prepared for: OakMayor2014.com

2. 2
Methodology
FM3 completed 1,012 telephone interviews with likely November 2014 voters in the City of Oakland
Interviews conducted September 8-14, 2014
Interviews conducted on landlines and cell phones
Interviews conducted in English, Spanish and Chinese (Cantonese and Mandarin)
712 interviews were conducted citywide
An additional 300 interviews were conducted in the 2nd, 4th and 6th City Council Districts, yielding the following total number of interviews in each District:
209 in City Council District 2
206 in City Council District 4
211 in City Council District 6
Margin of sampling error of +/-3.7% for the citywide results
Margin of sampling error of +/-6.9% for the City Council District results
Due to rounding, not all percentages sum to 100%

3. 3
Vote Question Structure and the Modeled Ranked-Choice Vote
Names and ballot designations for all certified candidates in each race were read to respondents.
The candidates were read in random order.
Respondents were asked for their first, second and third choices.
To model ranked-choice voting, undecided voters were eliminated.Supporters of the lowest-ranked candidate were re-allocated based on their second- and third-choice preferences.The process was repeated until a candidate reached majority support.

4. 4
Overall Key Findings
Sizable proportions of voters remain undecided in all four elections, enough to swing any of the elections in the favor of several different candidates.
In the race for Mayor, Kaplan, Quanand Schaafare the leading vote- getters, with Kaplan (57.5%) winning the modeled ranked-choice vote over Quan(42.5%).
39% initially undecided
In CCD 2, King (55%) wins the modeled ranked-choice vote over Guillen (45%).
62% initially undecided
In CCD 4, Broadhurst(60%) wins the modeled ranked-choice vote with Washington (36%) in second place.
64% initially undecided
In CCD 6, Brooks (64%) wins the modeled ranked-choice vote with Johnson in second place (19%).
47% initially undecided

5. 5The Race for Mayor of Oakland

6. 6
15%
13%
10%
6%
5%
4%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
Anderson
Ruby
Liu
Wilson
Williams
Sidebotham
McCullough
Houston
Karamooz
Undecided/Other
Kaplan57.5%
Quan42.5%
Kaplan, Quanand Schaafare the leading vote-getters – and Kaplan wins the modeled ranked choice voting – though two in five voters are undecided.
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
Initial Vote
Ranked Choice Result
<1%
<1%

7. 7
Undecided voters are disproportionately at the age extremes, independent, Republican, Asian/Pacific Islanders and African-Americans.
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
Demographic Group
Undecided/DK
% of Electorate
All Voters
39%
100%
Ages 18-29
48%
12%
Ages 75+
48%
8%
Independents Ages 18-49
47%
15%
City Council District 3
46%
16%
Asians/Pacific Islanders
46%
10%
Chinese
46%
7%
Women Ages 18-49
45%
25%
1+ Independent Households
44%
21%
African-American
43%
28%
Independent Women
43%
12%
Republicans
43%
6%

8. 8
The first seven candidates eliminated by ranked choice voting were (in order):
Karamooz
Houston
McCullough
Sidebotham
Williams
Wilson
Liu

9. 9
26%
22%
16%
10%
9%
8%
4%
4%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
Anderson
Ruby
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
8thRCV Round
9thRCV Round
Ruby was eliminated in the 8thround, and many of her supporters went to Schaaf.
26%
23%
18%
11%
10%
8%
4%
2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or Previously Eliminated
10%
35%
12%
6%
0%
0%
0%
37%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
Anderson
Ruby

10. 10
26%
23%
18%
11%
10%
8%
4%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
Anderson
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
9thRCV Round
10thRCV Round
Anderson was the next to be eliminated, and many of his supporters were unallocated.
28%
24%
19%
11%
10%
8%
13%
3%
0%
0%
55%
27%
2%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
Anderson
2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or Previously Eliminated

11. 11
28%
24%
19%
11%
10%
8%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
10thRCV Round
11thRCV Round
A sizable portion of Parker’s supporters went to Kaplan.
32%
26%
20%
12%
10%
6%
5%
9%
3%
40%
37%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or Previously Eliminated

12. 12
32%
26%
20%
12%
10%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
11thRCV Round
12thRCV Round
Like Anderson, many of Siegel’s supporters were unallocated once he was eliminated.
36%
29%
21%
14%
12%
5%
5%
55%
22%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or Previously Eliminated

13. 13
36%
29%
21%
14%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
12thRCV Round
13thRCV Round
Tuman’ssupporters tended to move to Schaafor be unallocated.
40%
31%
29%
5%
40%
47%
8%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or Previously Eliminated

14. 14
40%
31%
29%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
13th RCV Round 14th RCV Round
Quan narrowly beat out Schaaf in the final
elimination, though Schaaf supporters were
not likely to support either Kaplan or Quan.
57.5%
10% 42.5%
70%
21%
2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or
Previously Eliminated

15. 15
Q2.
29%
3%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
22%
35%
Jean Quan
Jason Anderson
Rebecca Kaplan
Dan Siegel
Ken Houston
Saied Karamooz
Peter Liu
Bryan Parker
Libby Schaaf
Nancy Sidebotham
Joe Tuman
Charles Williams
Pat McCullough
Courtney Ruby
Eric Wilson
No one/Could vote for any
Don't know
Respondents were asked: “Is there any candidate for Mayor of Oakland that you would nevervote for?”

16. 16The Race for City Council

17. 17
55%
45%
13%
9%
7%
7%
1%
62%
King
Guillen
Blackburn
Park
Maxey
Undecided/ Other
King and Guillen appear to be the top two contenders – with King wining the modeled ranked choice voting – though more than three in five voters are undecided.
Initial Vote
Ranked Choice Result
3. In your area, there are fivecandidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you can vote for up to threeof them. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for City Council if the candidates were…

18. 18
60%
36%
4%
22%
13%
1%
64%
Broadhurst
Washington
Lim
Undecided/ Other
Broadhursthas a lead in CCD 4, though more than three in five voters are undecided.
Initial Vote
Ranked Choice Result
4. In your area, there are threecandidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you can vote for up to threeof them. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for City Council if the candidates were…

19. 19
64%
19%
8%
9%
34%
10%
4%
5%
47%
Brooks
Johnson
Moore
Nosakhare
Undecided/ Other
Initial Vote
Ranked Choice Result
5. In your area, there are fourcandidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you can vote for up to threeof them. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for City Council if the candidates were…
While nearly half of voters are undecided, Brooks enjoys a three-to-one lead in CCD 6.

20. For more information, contact:
1999 Harrison St., Suite 1290Oakland, CA 94612Phone (510) 451-9521
Fax (510) 451-0384
Dave@FM3research.com
Curtis@FM3research.com

21. 21Appendix

22. 22
Oakland Mayor – Ranked Choice Voting Results
Candidate
Initial with Undec.
Initial without Undec.
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
RebeccaKaplan
15.1
24.9
24.9
24.9
25.0
25.2
25.6
25.8
25.9
26.3
28.0
32.0
36.4
40.1
57.5
Jean Quan
12.7
20.9
20.9
21.0
21.6
21.7
21.8
22.0
22.5
23.2
24.3
25.6
28.5
31.2
42.5
Libby Schaaf
9.7
15.9
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.1
16.2
16.3
16.4
18.1
18.6
19.6
21.3
28.7
Joe Tuman
5.7
9.3
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.7
9.8
10.2
10.4
11.1
11.4
12.5
13.7
Dan Siegel
5.2
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.1
9.5
9.7
10.3
BryanParker
4.3
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.4
7.4
7.5
7.7
7.9
Jason Anderson
1.9
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.5
4.1
4.2
Courtney Ruby
2.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.8
4.1
Peter Liu
1.2
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.2
Eric Wilson
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.5
Charles Williams
0.7
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
Nancy Sidebotham
0.5
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
Pat McCullough
0.6
0.9
0.9
0.9
KenHouston
0.2
0.3
0.3
SaiedKaramooz
0.1
0.2
Undecided/ Other
39.4

23. 23
CCD 2 – Ranked Choice Voting Results
Candidate
Initial with Undecided
Initial without Undecided
2nd
3rd
4th
Dana King
12.9
34.0
34.4
42.9
54.7
Abel Guillen
9.4
24.9
25.2
32.2
45.4
Kevin Blackburn
6.8
18.0
20.8
24.9
Andrew Park
7.4
19.5
19.7
Ken Maxey
1.4
3.6
Undecided/Other
62.2

24. 24
CCD 4 – Ranked Choice Voting Results
Candidate
Initial with Undecided
Initial without Undecided
Jill Broadhurst
21.9
60.2
Ann Campbell Washington
13.2
36.2
Paul Lim
1.3
3.7
Undecided/Other
63.6

25. 25
CCD 6 – Ranked Choice Voting Results
Candidate
Initial with Undecided
Initial without Undecided
DesleyBrooks
33.9
64.2
Michael Johnson
10.2
19.3
James Moore
4.1
7.7
SheredaNosakhare
4.6
8.8
Undecided/Other
47.3