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Session 3 Stephanie Pamies - European Commission

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Including climate change risks in the COM sustainanility analysis framework
Green Budgeting Virtual Meeting - 17 March 2020

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Session 3 Stephanie Pamies - European Commission

  1. 1. Including climate change risks in the COM fiscal sustainability analysis framework Stéphanie Pamies, European Commission ECFIN.C – Fiscal Policy and Policy mix OECD-World Bank-UNDP workshop on green budgeting, 17 March 2020
  2. 2. • COM activities on green related issues in the fiscal area • COM fiscal sustainability analysis framework in a nutshell • Our proposed strategy to introduce climate change risks in our debt / fiscal sustainability analysis framework Outline
  3. 3. • The Commission stated in 2019 the ambition for the EU to lead the transition to a ‘climate-neutral and healthy planet’ => a European Green deal • Far-reaching implications on public finances and on fiscal surveillance activity of the Commission: • Green budgeting • Green public investment and SGP • EU taxonomy for sustainable activities • DSA / fiscal sustainability analysis COM activities on green related issues in the fiscal area
  4. 4. • A multi-dimensional approach to assess fiscal sustainability risks in EU countries over the short-, medium- and long-term • Short-term: analysis of risk of fiscal stress over the upcoming year • Medium-term: analysis of risks to debt sustainability under different macro-financial conditions and fiscal policies • Long-term: analysis of fiscal sustainability risks linked to an ageing population (and other developments such as for example technological advances in health care) • Climate change dimension not factored-in at this stage COM fiscal sustainability analysis framework in a nutshell
  5. 5. • DSM 2019: first contribution including a review of the literature and current practices, conceptual and practical considerations • Proposed strategy: a step-by-step approach Introducing climate change risks in the COM debt (fiscal) sustainability analysis framework
  6. 6. • Many potential and complex economic and fiscal impacts (e.g. numerous transmission channels, wide array of policies that affect the severity of the phenomenon itself and countries’ resilience, uncertain behavioural changes) • Dimension little considered so far in debt (fiscal) sustainability frameworks => most available reports are event studies • Proposed ‘modules’ to analyse climate change related risks • Important practical challenges however, linked to data gaps, large uncertainties surrounding available quantifications of economic impacts, limitations of current budgetary frameworks for the purpose of assessing climate change related fiscal risks DSM 2019: main findings
  7. 7. Overall and insured losses for relevant natural loss events in Europe (1980-2018) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 in US$, billions, in 2018 values Overall losses Insured losses Share of insured losses (rhs) in % of overall losses
  8. 8. • Module on extreme weather events: identification and analysis of existing datasets, with a view to design stress tests scenarios / stochastic simulations • Identification of vulnerable countries for case / pilot studies • Analysis of the link between public and private financial management of climate related physical risks and impacts; scope of climate protection gaps in EU • Important pre-requisites: • Availability and coverage of existing datasets • Other (policy) reporting tools => progress on green budgeting and others • Cooperation across COM DGs, international institutions and national authorities On-going work
  9. 9. Selected datasets on extreme weather events Dataset Provider Coverage NatCat MunichRe Worldwide including EU countries EM-DAT CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters) Worldwide including EU countries, European Past Floods Database ETC-ICM and the EEA EU-28 European Severe Weather Database European Severe Storms Laboratory EU Countries + Russia and other Middle East Countries Impacts of extreme weather and climate related events in the EEA member countries EEA-MunichRE EU Countries DesInventar UNDRR Africa, America, Asia A High-Resolution Global Gridded Historical Dataset of Climate Extreme Indices CMCC Global gridded data A new global database of meteorological drought events from 1951 JRC- (Spinoni et al., 2019) Global Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events Darthmouth Flood Observatory Global Global Risk Data Platform UNISDR Global Natural Hazards Data, Images and Education National Centers for Environmental Information Global
  10. 10. Thank you https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/ debt-sustainability-monitor-2019_en