1. Which world and which
European businesses in
2020?
Johan Peter Paludan

2. The Copenhagen Institute for
Futures Studies
• Founded by Thorkil
Kristensen in 1970
• Private, non-profit
organisation
• Memberbased –
members i DK,S, N
• Crossdisciplinarian think
tank
• Staff 25

3. Chance favours only the prepared
mind.
Louis Pasteur

4. Ways into the future
- Trends – short term (fashion, bussiness)
- Prognoses (ex. Economic growth, demographics)
- Creativity (out of the box thinking, transdisciplinarian)
- Megatrends (globalisation)
- Scenarios (environmental devl.)
- Paradigms/Logics
- Back Casting (point of departure: a preferred future)
- Wild Cards (Mohammed-drawings)

5. 15 Megatrends
1. Knowledge
2. New technology
3. Acceleration
4. Hypercomplexity
5. Globalisation
6. Commercialisation
7. Affluence
8. Democratisation
9. Polarisation
10.Immaterialisation
11.Individualisation
12.Networks
13.Health
14.Environment
15.Ageing

6. LOGICS

7. Logics, so far
• Hunter/gatherer
• Agricultural
• Industrial
• ?

8. The four value added logics
Emotions & stories
DreamSociety logic
Standardisation Diversity
Automation Taylored
Specialisation Diy
Maintenance Interactive
Industrial Creative Man
society logic and Anarchonomy
logic
Knowledge society logic
Rational R&D

9. INDUSTRY LOGIC
• Economies of scale
• Massproduction of
identical products
• To produce and to
consume
•Automation
•Outsourcing
•In services too!

10. DREAM SOCIETY
LOGIC
From function to
emotions
•The immaterial side of a
product more important
than the material
• Branding and brand
loyalty
• ’Superfluous’

11. Dream Society – the
theory
• Driving forces:
- the accelerating rate of change: we
are already entering the Dream Society
- the immaterialisation of demand
- automation of whatever can be
automated
- the revolt against the tyranny of
reason

12. Evolution of consumption
1800
1600
Totally superfluous
1400
Luxury
1200 Important
Basic consumption
1000
Necessities
800
600
400
200
0
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

13. 100 ml 43Euro

15. From Dung to Coffee Brew With No Aftertaste

16. The six new market
profiles
• The market for adventure
• The market for love and belonging
• The care market
• The who-am-I market
• The market for peace of mind
• The market for convictions

17.
Future market segments and past
market categories
Love and friendship
Peace of mind
Conviction
Adventure
Identity
Food Care
Housing
Transport
Energy
Finance ?
Electronics

18. Stories
• To send signals about the good life
• The great stories aren’t what they used
to be, and yet….
• What is abundant is ’cheap’
- we go for the scarce elements

19. Scarce resources in the Dream
Society
ARE NOT : BUT :
• Information • Attention
• Products • Care
• Channels • Genuine interest
• Opportunities • Time
• Satisfaction • Trust
• Good Stories • Meaning

20. Create value!
What is the meaning
Of what you do?
Meaning
Solution
Product
Technology

21. CREATIVE MAN
LOGIC
• From experience to
identification
• Creativity and
innovation in work and
consumption
• The prosumer
• Individualised
massproduction

23. Anarchism + Economy =
ANARCONOMY
Download FREE report from IFF:
www.iff.dk/dk/anarconomy.asp

24. Anarconomy - basics
• Networksociety
• Open source
• Share knowledge without losing it
• Free
• Copyright versus unique
solutions/experiences
• The consumer takes over the means of
production

25. 3D printers

26. Contour Crafting – print
a house

27. From centrallised
Photovoltaic facade
energy systems Trees
to decentralised Greenery air/watercleaning
production
Moss
Thrash = food
Intelligent surface
Furniture recycleable

28. tio d
tri lise
n
A wildcard?
dis ntra
bu
ce
De
Decentralisatio
Decentralised
development
n: everything is
in the perifery
De prod
ce
ntr uctio
ali n
se
d

29. Driving forces towards
anarconomy
TECHNOLOGY KNOWLEDGE PEOPLE DECENTRALISA-
TION
Ubiquitous IT and Transparency Surplus and a will to Death of Distance
internet share
Dismanteling of Free content and Easy networking Decentralised
technology knowledge (copyleft) (social sites) markets – P2P
monopolies
Basically free copying Knowledge easy to Social capital more Decentralised
of knowledge find (search important than organisation –
products functions) material capital networks

30. Anarconomy vs. Commercial
economy
• Free copyleft • Paid for, copyright
• Based on volunteers • Based on salaried labour
• Produced/distributed • Produced/distributed centrally
decentralised • Updated now and then
• Continously updated • The producer is responsible
• No one is responsible. • Good at streamlining
• Not good at streamlining
Challenges and supplements each other

31. Digtialisation
• Everything that
can be
digitalised, will
be digitalised
• The price of all
that is
digitalised
approaches 0.
• New business
models
needed

32. Knowledge society logic
• Develop, transmit, use and sell knowledge
• Bussiness service: knowledge on the
interplay between technology and
customers
• Knowledge embedded in products and
systems
• Develop new knowledge through research
• Education in focus

33. - and so what?
• So: know thy logic!

34. Value creation logics
Emotional
DreamSociety logic
Standardisation
Diversity
Automatisation
Man-made
Specialisation
Diy
Involvement
Industrial Creative Man
society- Logic and
logic Anarchonomy
Knowledge society logic
Rational

35. Value creation logics
Leadership
Emotional
Management DreamSociety logic Charisma
Scientific
Standardisation
Diversity
Automatisation
Man-made
Specialisation
Diy
Involvement
Industrial Creative Man
society- Logic and
logic Anarchonomy
Empowerment
Facilitate
Servant leader
Knowledge society logic Dual:
Rational purse or

36. Value creation logics: Motivation
Emotional ‘Hooked’
DreamSociety logic Excited
9-17
Standardisation
Diversity
Automatisation
Man-made
Specialisation
Diy
Involvement
Industrial Creative Man
society- Logic and
logic Anarchonomy
Empowerment
Knowledge society logic ‘Going
Rational places’

37. Value creation logics: Marketing
Emotional ‘Seduction’
Data DreamSociety logic Push
Push
Standardisation
Diversity
Automatisation
Man-made
Specialisation
Diy
Involvement
Industrial Creative Man
society- Logic and
logic Anarchonomy
Interactive
Data pull
Knowledge society logic Informatio
Rational n

38. Value creation logics: Innovation
Emotional
DreamSociety logic
Storybased
Closed
Standardisation
Diversity
Automatisation
Man-made
Specialisation
Diy
Involvement
Industrial Creative Man
society- Logic and
logic Anarchonomy
Open
User driven
Knowledge society logic Knowledg
Rational e

39. The market situation for
Nordic companies 2020
• Growth rates
- moderate
• Barriers to growth
- humans
• Global competition
- polarisation: cheap labour vs. Innovation/automation
• Future markets
- realistic: the usual;
- hopefully: BRIC and beyond
• Regulation
- the more automated, the better

40. Thankyou
Stay curious
Read on:
www.cifs.dk