1. ■ Översikt
1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
Lätt bris
Översikt 02
LÄTT BRIS
Sverige 03
KÖPSTARKA HUSHÅLL MOTOR I EKONOMIN
Norway 05
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ECONOMY, BUT NO DOWNTURN
Denmark07
THE LONG INTERMISSION
Finland09
STILL TRUDGING ON
Key figures11
EKONOMISKA
UTSIKTER
NORDEN
J U N I 2 0 1 3

2. ■ Översikt
2 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
Lätt bris
 Trög återhämtning globalt
 Politisk balansgång i euroområdet
 Sakta åt rätt håll i Norden
Svag global tillväxt, men sakta åt rätt håll
Recessionen i euroområdet fortsätter. BNP väntas falla
med hela 0,8 procent i år, vilket dämpar världstillväxten.
Tysk ekonomi har bromsat in, vilket sätter avtryck i hela
euroområdet. Tyskland går dessutom till val i september,
vilket skapar vissa politiska begränsningar. Att ECB har
tagit en mer aktiv roll för att skapa förtroende passar där-
med Tyskland väl. Det sker också strukturförändringar i
flera länder även om mer behöver göras. Vi räknar emel-
lertid med att den höga arbetslösheten i många länder gör
det svårt för politikerna att gå för snabbt fram. Det är en
svår balansgång att å ena sidan skapa marknadsförtroende
och öka konkurrenskraften och å andra sidan inte strama
åt ekonomin allt för hårt. Ny politisk ledning i både Ita-
lien och Frankrike har bromsat reformtakten. Å andra si-
dan kan det vara en väl vald strategi åtminstone i Frank-
rike där det trots allt sker förändringar i rätt riktning.
Samtidigt utgör den svaga utvecklingen av ekonomin en
betydande riskfaktor.
Att USA tillfälligt skulle påverkas negativt av den åtstra-
mande finanspolitiken var väntat. Mycket ser dock bra ut i
amerikansk ekonomi. Arbetsmarknad, bostadsmarknad,
skuldsättning och kreditgivning indikerar att ekonomin är
på rätt väg. Även politiskt räknar vi med en lugnare ut-
veckling framöver och penningpolitiken lär förbli expan-
siv ett bra tag framöver. Kinas ekonomi beräknas växa
med närmare 8 procent i år. Östra Kina växer långsam-
mare och industriproduktionen fortsätter att flytta väster
ut där tillväxten är betydligt högre. Landets ledning är fast
beslutet att öka privat konsumtion som andel av BNP.
Löneökningar runt 10 procent bör ge effekt, men sätter
samtidigt press på företagens vinster.
BNP, procentuell förändring årstakt
2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E
Världen 5,2 3,9 3,2 3,2 4,0
Norden 3,7 2,7 1,0 1,2 2,0
- Danmark 1,6 1,1 -0,5 0,3 1,3
- Finland 3,3 2,8 -0,2 -0,5 1,5
- Norge 1,7 2,5 3,4 2,6 2,2
- Sverige 6,6 3,7 0,7 1,5 2,5
Dämpad global efterfrågan slår mot Norden
För tillfället har de fyra nordiska ekonomierna drabbats av
en dämpad global efterfrågan. Finland och Danmark har
det tuffast eftersom även deras hemmamarknader är
svaga.
Danmark – svag tillväxt i grannländer sätter spår
Efter närmare fyra år av stagnation bedöms återhämtning-
en ta fart mot slutet av året och framför allt under nästa år.
Bostadsmarknaden, med stora prisfall 2008, bidrog till
Danmarks djupa nedgång men är också en nyckel till
återhämtning. Exporten drabbas av svag efterfrågan från
viktiga handelspartners, vilket gör att hushållen spelar en
viktigare roll. Hushållen har goda förutsättningar att kon-
sumera då finanspolitiken varit expansiv, räntorna är låga
och det finns ett uppdämt behov efter flera år av skuldsa-
nering. Under krisen har dock produktiviteten fallit till-
baka, vilket talar för att det tar längre tid innan återhämt-
ningen syns i sysselsättningen.
Finland – avsaknad av drivkrafter
Finsk ekonomi är i recession. Vi har reviderat ned tillväx-
ten på bred front både innevarande år och nästa år. Det
saknas fortfarande drivkrafter för att få fart på ekonomin i
närtid och det dröjer därför till slutet av året innan vi räk-
nar med en viss återhämtning. Nästan alla länder Finland
exporterar till går trögt. Finland exporterar framför allt
investeringsvaror och råvaror för vilka efterfrågan utveck-
las svagt. Arbetsmarknaden fortsätter att försämras och
hushållens köpkraft ökar inte i år.
Norge – dämpad inhemsk efterfrågan
Norsk ekonomi utvecklas något svagare än vad vi tidigare
bedömt. Arbetslösheten har ökat, om än från en låg nivå,
löneökningarna är lägre än tidigare och näringslivets in-
vesteringar är dämpade med undantag för oljeindustrin
och bostadsbyggandet. Bankerna har stramat åt kreditgiv-
ningen. Den tydliga inbromsningen av ekonomin under
fjärde kvartalet var dock tillfällig. Norska kronan väntas
gå sidledes under större delen av prognosperioden, då den
inhemska ekonomin inte talar för stigande räntor. Norges
bank ligger still med styrräntan till slutet av 2014.
Sverige – trögt nu men hushållen står starka
Svensk ekonomi är fortsatt tudelad. Industrin befinner sig
i lågkonjunktur medan förutsättningarna för hushållen är
goda. Den globala avmattningen har satt spår i varupro-
duktionen, men även i tjänstesektorn. Andra kvartalet be-
döms bli svagt, men därefter sker en försiktig återhämt-
ning. Samtidigt står hushållen starka. Det skapar förut-
sättningar för en konsumtionstillväxt över det historiska
genomsnittet. Men det ökar också risken för en ökad
skuldsättning. Riksbankens dilemma, med svag konjunk-
tur, hög arbetslöshet och låg inflation å ena sidan och
Riksbankens oro för hushållens skuldsättning å andra si-
dan består. Vi räknar med att reporäntan har bottnat. Re-
geringen antas stimulera ekonomin med ytterligare cirka
25 miljarder kronor i budgeten för 2014 utöver de åtgär-
der som redan aviserats. Det summerar till cirka 50 mil-
jarder kronor under prognosperioden. Underskottet ökar
därmed, men det är rimligt med tanke på konjunkturläget.
Kronan stärks mot euron, men försvagas mot dollarn.
Annika Winsth
annika.winsth@nordea.com +46 8 614 8608

3. ■ Sverige
3 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
Sverige: Makroekonomiska nyckeltal (årlig tillväxt i procent om inget annat anges)
2009 (mdkr) 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E
Privat konsumtion 1 533 4,0 2,1 1,5 2,4 2,7
Offentlig konsumtion 860 2,1 1,1 0,7 0,9 1,4
Fasta bruttoinvesteringar 559 7,2 6,4 3,2 -4,1 2,8
- industri 74 2,7 11,4 7,5 -10,6 2,6
- bostadsinvesteringar 92 15,7 14,7 -8,2 -1,8 5,1
Lagerinvesteringar* -46 2,2 0,5 -1,1 0,3 0,0
Export 1 489 11,4 7,1 0,8 -1,2 4,0
Import 1 288 12,0 6,3 0,0 -2,8 4,0
BNP 3 106 6,6 3,7 0,7 1,5 2,5
BNP, kalenderkorrigerad 6,3 3,7 1,1 1,5 2,6
Nominell BNP (mdr SEK) 3 106 3 338 3 500 3 562 3 660 3 798
Arbetslöshet (% av arbetskraften) 8,6 7,8 8,0 8,3 8,3
Sysselsättning 0,6 2,3 0,7 0,6 0,5
Konsumentpriser (årsgenomsnitt KPI) 1,2 3,0 0,9 0,0 1,4
Underliggande inflation (årsgenomsnitt KPIF) 2,0 1,4 1,0 0,9 1,3
Timlöner (nationalräkenskaper) 1,1 2,7 3,3 3,1 2,8
Bytesbalans (mdr SEK) 228 246 246 271 281
- % av BNP 6,8 7,0 6,9 7,4 7,4
Handelsbalans (% av BNP) 2,6 2,6 2,6 2,6 2,6
Offentligt finansiellt sparande (mdr SEK) -0,3 1,1 -22,3 -48,7 -57,5
- % av BNP 0,0 0,0 -0,6 -1,3 -1,5
Offentlig bruttoskuld, % av BNP 39,4 38,5 38,0 40,7 41,4
Köpstarka hushåll motor i ekonomin
 Förbättrad efterfrågan höjer BNP-tillväxten
 Valbudget stimulerar ekonomin
 Riksbanken avvaktar
 Kronan stärks mot euron
Förbättring i sikte
Den svenska ekonomin är på väg upp ur den svacka som
den har befunnit sig i under det senaste dryga året. Driv-
kraften är framför allt hushållens konsumtion. Dessutom
har exporten planat ut efter den tidigare långa nedgången.
Investeringarna faller visserligen i år men det är en för-
dröjd effekt av det minskade kapacitetsutnyttjandet förra
året.
Det dröjer något kvartal innan BNP-tillväxten stärks mer
påtagligt. BNP ökade överraskande mycket under första
kvartalet i år men sammansättningen var ogynnsam med
bland annat ökade lager. Dessutom tyder flera indikatorer
på en dämpad utveckling i närtid. Nästa år stärks upp-
gången av BNP då tillväxtmotorn hushållen ackompanje-
ras av högre export och till viss del även av stigande in-
vesteringar och offentlig konsumtion.
Läget på arbetsmarknaden är bekymmersamt. Tillsam-
mans med varaktigt låg inflation sätter det press på Riks-
banken att sänka räntan. Riksbanken framhåller dock att
penningpolitiken redan är expansiv. Ytterligare ränte-
sänkningar är därför inte troliga. Nästa år höjs reporäntan
då framför allt den inhemska ekonomin växer sig star-
kare.
Utrikeshandeln kvicknar till
Marknadstillväxten för svenska exportörer är i år den
lägsta på 20 år, bortsett från det unika och kraftiga raset
2009. Följaktligen minskar den svenska exporten i år.
Nedgången beror dock på den låga nivån i början av året
och exporten bedöms stiga något under loppet av 2013.
Nästa år växlar exporten upp då efterfrågan i omvärlden
ökar. Trots den prognoserade uppgången når varuexpor-
ten bara upp till samma nivå som vid de tidigare topparna
2011 och 2008. Således är det en sex år lång stagnation,
vilket illustrerar det stålbad som exportindustrin har ge-
nomlevt de senaste åren. Exporten av tjänster har dock
utvecklats bättre och är en allt viktigare drivkraft i eko-
nomin.
Hushållen ångar på, finanspolitiken expansiv
Förutsättningarna är goda för hushållen. Inte minst inne-
bär stigande löner och låg inflation att köpkraften förbätt-
ras. I år och nästa år ökar hushållens reala inkomster med
ca 3 procent per år. Därtill har hushållens förmögenhets-
ställning förbättrats i och med börsåterhämtningen och
stigande huspriser. Hushållens sparande är högt, vilket
talar för att det finns ett betydande utrymme för ökad
konsumtion.
Valåret 2014 gör sig påmint. Bland annat är det troligt att
inkomstskatterna sänks nästa år, vilket höjer hushållens
köpkraft. I år uppgår de ofinansierade reformerna till 25
miljarder kronor, motsvarande 0,7 procent av BNP. Vi
räknar med ytterligare reformer i samma storleksordning
nästa år. Finanspolitiken stimulerar ekonomin, men ger
underskott i budgeten på ca 1,5 procent av BNP både
2013 och 2014.
I spåren av den expansiva finanspolitiken ökar den of-
fentliga konsumtionen och till viss del även de offentliga
investeringarna. Investeringarna i näringslivet faller dock
tungt och på bred front i år då avmattningen i ekonomin
har minskat behovet av att expandera. Ett undantag är
bostadsbyggandet som bottnade förra året och som ser ut
att öka successivt i år. I takt med att produktionen ökar
* Bidrag till BNP-utvecklingen, procentenheter

4. ■ Sverige
4 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
igen inleds nästa år en återhämtning i de totala investe-
ringarna som successivt vinner i styrka.
Riksbankens avvägningar
Sysselsättningen har överraskat positivt genom att, trots
den låga tillväxten i ekonomin, ha ökat under det senaste
året. Frånvaron har dock stigit kraftigt under samma pe-
riod och antalet personer som faktiskt går till jobbet har
blivit färre. Den ökade frånvaron återspeglas i antalet ar-
betade timmar som har stagnerat under det senaste året.
Det är troligt att arbetslösheten, som för närvarande lig-
ger på drygt 8 procent, stiger ytterligare något i närtid.
Hög arbetslöshet, måttliga löneökningar och en ihållande
nedgång i importpriserna stärker bilden av ett lågt inflat-
ionstryck. Inflationen beräknas understiga 2-
procentsmålet under överskådlig framtid.
För Riksbankens del står en låg inflation och ett lågt re-
sursutnyttjande mot en inhemsk ekonomi där viktiga de-
lar utvecklas väl. Vid sidan av en god konsumtionsut-
veckling och ett ökat bostadsbyggande torde huspriserna
fortsätta att stiga framöver. Hushållens kredittillväxt vi-
sar tecken på att accelerera och mot bakgrund av att
bolåneräntorna har fallit lär den fortsätta att öka. I dessa
avvägningar bedöms Riksbanken lägga störst vikt vid ut-
vecklingen av den inhemska ekonomin och väntas inte
sänka reporäntan ytterligare från dagens nivå på 1,0 pro-
cent. Nästa år höjer Riksbanken räntan för att bromsa
hushållens skulduppbyggnad samtidigt som det då finns
tecken på ett stigande resursutnyttjande. Osäkerheten om
penningpolitiken bör understrykas. Om Riksbanken istäl-
let betonar det svaga konjunkturläget kan räntan komma
att sänkas i år.
Kronan undervärderad mot euron
Förstärkningen av kronan de senaste åren är resultatet av
den förhållandevis starka svenska ekonomin. Det har re-
sulterat i en ökad ränteskillnad mot övriga Europa och i
en starkare växelkurs mot framför allt euron. En fortsatt
förhållandevis god utveckling av svensk ekonomi talar
för att kronans styrka mot euron består. Den reala växel-
kursens avvikelse från sitt långsiktiga genomsnitt indike-
rar en fortsatt förstärkning av kronan. Däremot bedöms
kronan försvagas något mot dollarn i takt med att den
amerikanska ekonomin återhämtar sig.
Torbjörn Isaksson
torbjorn.isaksson@nordea.com +46 614 8859
Stabilisering av exporten
Stigande kredittillväxt
Färre går till jobbet
Kronan stärks mot euron
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13 EURSEK
Real average
Nominal
Real

5. ■ Norway
5 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
Slightly weaker economy, but no downturn
 Slightly weaker economy
 No rate hike until end-2014
 NOK to remain relatively strong
In line with expectations GDP growth in the mainland
economy picked up nicely in Q1, supporting our belief
that the dent in growth in Q4 was temporary and that the
economy will grow at a relatively healthy clip going for-
ward. Still, despite the pick-up in growth in Q1 unem-
ployment has increased and wage growth looks set to be
slightly lower than expected. We have therefore margin-
ally revised down our forecast for consumption growth.
In addition, business investment growth has slightly un-
dershot expectations, making the outlook for growth in
the Norwegian economy a tad weaker than assumed in
our March forecasts.
Subdued business investment
Business investment in mainland Norway declined q/q in
Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, and a weak trend in commercial
construction starts suggests no rapid reversal. Since end-
2011 banks have tightened their lending standards for
corporate credits and especially commercial mortgages.
Still, a low propensity to invest among businesses is
probably the key factor behind the weak trend.
Investment activity was strong prior to the financial cri-
sis, and a high level of capital stock is probably the main
reason why investment as a proportion of output has re-
mained low since 2009. With sustained relatively strong
growth in the mainland economy, investment needs
should gradually pick up. Consequently, we see moderate
investment growth as early as next year.
Purchasing power growth at a low
After two years of strong household income growth, real
wage growth will hit a post-2010 low as a result of the
moderate outcome of the spring pay talks and higher in-
flation. Next year household income should improve
again thanks to higher wage growth and lower inflation.
We expect household spending growth this year and next
year to be slightly lower than in 2012. The household
savings ratio will likely stabilise at a high level.
Housing starts have risen sharply, pointing to relatively
strong growth in housing investment this year. However,
residential construction is already at a high level, and we
look for a stabilisation that will cause housing investment
growth to recede to almost zero in 2014.
Healthy growth in mainland economy
Judging from the oil companies’ investment plans, 2013
should be a year of very strong oil investment growth.
Coupled with strong housing investment growth and
good growth in consumer spending, this is the key reason
why overall growth in the mainland economy looks set to
be high this year. But the decline in mainland business
investment and weak export growth will act as a drag.
Next year we see a marked slowdown in oil and housing
investment growth. But with a pick-up in activity interna-
tionally, export growth should accelerate slightly. We al-
so see a moderate reversal in business investment, and as
consumption growth also seems to stay at a moderate
level, we expect mainland economic growth to remain
relatively high also next year. But it will slow this year
relative to 2012 and slow even further in 2014.
Temporary labour market weakening
We now see clear signs of labour market weakening. The
pick-up in employment has come to a halt amid sustained
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)
Norway: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (NOKbn) 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 1,028 3.8 2.5 3.0 2.8 2.8
Government consumption 531 1.3 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.0
Fixed investment 516 -8.0 7.6 8.0 5.7 2.4
- gross investment, mainland 349 -4.5 8.5 3.7 3.1 1.7
- gross investment, oil 144 -14.8 9.8 19.1 12.0 4.0
Stockbuilding* 14 3.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Exports 929 0.4 -1.8 1.8 -1.2 1.0
- crude oil and natural gas 416 -6.9 -6.2 0.9 -4.5 0.0
- other goods 277 3.4 0.0 2.6 1.2 2.0
Imports 660 9.0 3.8 2.4 3.2 2.9
GDP 2,357 0.5 1.2 3.1 1.3 1.7
GDP, mainland 1,876 1.7 2.5 3.4 2.6 2.2
Unemployment rate, % 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.7
Consumer prices, % y/y 2.5 1.2 0.8 1.9 1.4
Core inflation, % y/y 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6
Annual w ages (incl. pension costs), % y/y 3.6 4.2 4.0 3.6 4.0
Current account (NOKbn) 303.2 351.0 413.2 330.9 391.1
- % of GDP 11.9 12.8 14.2 11.1 12.3
Trade balance, % of GDP 11.9 13.3 13.2 10.3 11.4
General govt budget balance (NOKbn) 282.5 373.6 417.7 340.0 400.0
- % of GDP 11.1 13.6 14.3 11.5 12.6

6. ■ Norway
6 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
labour supply growth. Notably groups not entitled to un-
employment benefits are hit, for example students look-
ing for part-time jobs. But unemployment in the con-
struction sector is also heading higher. With growth of
some 2½% this year and 2¼% next year, demand for la-
bour should rise, while labour supply growth fades. Con-
sequently, the rise in unemployment should level out.
Wage growth and inflation to remain low
The pay rises agreed at the centralised pay talks this year
were lower than expected, and the labour market has
weakened, suggesting decelerating wage growth. How-
ever, with good capacity to pay wages in parts of the
business sector and competition for qualified labour in
some sectors, wage growth should remain fairly elevated.
Core inflation might rise in the years ahead, notably be-
cause the effect on import prices of the latest NOK ap-
preciation will fade.
Interest rates to remain low – for a long time
Despite a marginal uptick in coming years, core inflation
looks set to stay well below the 2½% target. Wage
growth will be lower than the level compatible with the
inflation target, economic growth will be moderate and
unemployment higher than in the past couple of years.
This could justify a rate cut by Norges Bank, but fears of
renewed strong growth in house prices and household in-
debtedness suggest that the bank will keep rates on hold.
Towards end-2014 a rate hike may be on the cards. By
that time interest rate expectations internationally will
have risen considerably, and the NOK should have
weakened somewhat.
Over the past months the NOK, though still relatively
strong, has weakened. We expect the NOK to stay rela-
tively strong in the years ahead, although with time it
will weaken from current levels. Should the NOK
strengthen markedly, it will trigger speculation about a
rate cut, which suggests that the strengthening will be
brief. Conversely, should it weaken markedly, it might
prompt Norges Bank to hike rates.
Labour market trends lead to uncertainty
Our forecast of a relatively stable NOK this year and
most of next year is based on the view that nothing in the
domestic economy points to any major changes in the in-
terest rate level. At this juncture, the biggest uncertainty
going forward is the labour market. If labour immigration
continues unabated, unemployment could rise further. A
growing mismatch between supply and demand for la-
bour might also push unemployment higher. In the event
of sharply rising unemployment from current levels Nor-
ges Bank will choose a more expansionary monetary pol-
icy line. This scenario implies somewhat lower interest
rates and a weaker NOK.
Erik Bruce
erik.bruce@nordea.com +47 2248 4449
Katrine Godding Boye
katrine.boye@nordea.com +47 2248 7977
Subdued business investment – almost everywhere
Modest spending growth due to low income growth
Weaker labour market
Sustained NOK strength
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5 % of the labour force
Employment
Unemployment, rhs
% y/y
Labour force
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
11 12 13
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.07.1
7.3
7.5
7.7
7.9
8.1 EURNOK % points
Spread Norwegian and Euro 2y rate,
reversed rhs
EURNOK

7. ■ Denmark
7 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
The long intermission
 Growth to slowly return
 Export engine without fuel
 Toeing the line between growth and confidence
 Late labour market turnaround
The Danish economy is struggling with the effects of an
almost 4-year long intermission with activity growth
around zero. However, we expect this sideways trend to
be replaced by moderately accelerating growth later this
year and especially into 2014. The pick-up will be mainly
driven by rising domestic demand, with higher consumer
spending and mounting investment activity. Consequent-
ly, we maintain our forecast of accelerating economic
growth in Denmark, but revise down the levels slightly
compared to our March forecast. We now see growth at
0.3% this year, rising to 1.3% in 2014.
Export engine without fuel
A key factor behind our downward revision is the waning
activity in the neighbouring German, Swedish and UK
markets that has put Danish exports under pressure. For
the past three consecutive quarters exports have declined
in volume terms. Since the turn of the millennium this
has only happened twice: in 2001 and during the big
global recession in 2008. But the cyclical downturn in
exports coincides with a strengthening of underlying
Danish competitiveness via markedly lower wage growth
than that recorded by key trading partners and through
structural reforms aimed at improving the conditions of
Danish businesses. This means that the Danish economy
is today better positioned to take advantage of a global
upswing when international economic trends again bring
milder winds over the slightly ailing Danish economy.
Toeing the line between growth and confidence
The easy fiscal policy is drawing to a close. The govern-
ment estimates that initiatives taken over the past few
years combined will boost growth by 0.3% point this
year, but have a slightly contractionary effect on the
economy next year.
In a situation with stagnation the question is whether fis-
cal policy should be eased further to provide a temporary
boost to activity. However, such steps could jeopardise
confidence in the Danish economy and prompt a relative
increase in Danish interest rates. For instance, the effect
on economic activity of a permanent increase in public
consumption by DKK 10bn would, all else equal, be neu-
tralised by a pick-up in 10-year government yields by
0.70% point.
Obviously, it is not possible to say beforehand that
weaker public finances alone will lead to upward pres-
sure on Danish yields. But in the current situation the
gains of further fiscal policy easing do not in our opinion
outweigh the potential risks.
Late labour market turnaround
As a result of the current low economic activity employ-
ment has been declining slightly over the past two years.
It may seem a paradox that the number of employed peo-
ple has not dropped even further given the past years of
zero growth in the Danish economy. However, the reason
is rapidly declining productivity growth. This means that
instead of fully adapting headcounts, many Danish busi-
nesses have been willing to accept weakening productivi-
ty. It also means that it may take some time for employ-
ment to respond to rising growth, once it materialises.
Against this backdrop and given the prospect of a later
Denmark: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (DKKbn) 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 822 1.7 -0.5 0.6 0.4 1.6
Government consumption 496 0.4 -1.5 0.2 0.6 0.9
Fixed investment 304 -2.4 2.8 0.0 1.9 2.0
- government investment 32 8.9 4.2 7.4 -6.5 1.4
- residential investment 71 -0.6 14.6 -9.5 -1.8 4.8
- business fixed investment 201 -4.9 -1.6 2.4 5.0 1.2
Stockbuilding* -22 1.0 0.5 -0.4 0.5 0.0
Exports 793 3.0 6.5 0.9 -0.5 2.6
Imports 728 3.2 5.6 1.8 1.1 3.0
GDP 1.6 1.1 -0.5 0.3 1.3
Nominal GDP (DKKbn) 1,665 1,761 1,792 1,820 1,850 1,904
Unemployment rate, % 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.1
Gross unemployment level, '000 persons 163.4 159.7 161.7 158.3 160.9
Consumer prices, % y/y 2.3 2.8 2.4 0.9 1.4
Hourly earnings, % y/y 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.9
Nominal house prices, one-family, % y/y 2.8 -2.8 -3.3 1.3 2.0
Current account (DKKbn) 103.6 101.2 100.3 85.3 67.3
- % of GDP 5.9 5.6 5.5 4.6 3.5
General govt. budget balance (DKKbn) -47.4 -34.9 -77.5 -25.0 -31.0
- % of GDP -2.7 -2.0 -4.3 -1.4 -1.6
Gross public debt, % of GDP 42.9 46.6 45.5 44.5 43.0
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)

8. ■ Denmark
8 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
turnaround than originally anticipated, we have revised
down our forecast for employment growth. Now, we do
not expect employment to pick up in earnest until mid-
2014.
Harbingers of spring in a fragile housing market
Developments in the housing market have recently given
grounds for some optimism. Especially the market for
owner-occupied flats in the major cities has shown signs
of improvement with prices up and a moderate pick-up in
the turnover rate. With prospects of slightly higher mo-
mentum in the Danish economy and sustained very low
interest rates we expect this burgeoning optimism to
gradually spread to the rest of the housing market. How-
ever, major regional differences will remain, with pro-
gress mainly seen in areas where demand is held up by
demographic movement.
Despite a tentative recovery in prices, residential con-
struction activity remains at a very low level. And alt-
hough the government with its reintroduction of tax de-
ductibility of home repairs and improvements tries to
breathe life into the construction sector, housing invest-
ment is still far from contributing positively to growth.
Still, we expect the cocktail of temporary tax allowances,
significant pent-up demand and low interest rates to drive
housing investment slightly higher over the forecast peri-
od.
Households shaken by confidence crisis
The housing market crisis is the main reason why con-
sumer spending remains subdued despite the tax cuts in-
troduced at the beginning of the year and the surge in
household financial wealth to a record-high level.
Going forward, however, there is hope that rising dispos-
able incomes and a gradual pick-up in economic activity
globally will get Danish household consumption out of
the doldrums. But hope is not certainty. If the increase in
household purchasing power is to translate into rising
consumer spending, the savings ratio must not increase
correspondingly. In this context the housing market will
play a key role in households’ choice between spending
and saving.
Helge J. Pedersen
helge.pedersen@nordea.com +45 33333126
Jan Størup Nielsen
jan.storup.nielsen@nordea.com +45 33333171
Slightly higher growth ahead
Increased purchasing power to boost spending
Slow labour market turnaround
Exports peter out temporarily
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
1991 Q1
2000 Q1
GDP-GrowthIndex Index
2010 Q1
Note: Number of quarters
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220 2005-DKKbn
Model based on
disposable income
Household
consumption
2005-DKKbn
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
2.70
2.75
2.80
2.85
2.90
2.95
3.00
Employment
mio. persons
Gross unemployment, rhs
'000 full-time unemployed
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260 2005-DKKbn
Imports
Exports
2005-DKKbn

9. ■ Finland
9 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
Still trudging on
 Slower than expected growth
 Exports will not recover until 2014
 Investment will decrease
 Weaker employment weighs on consumption
Slower than expected growth
The short-term outlook of the Finnish economy has
turned weaker due to the lack of both international and
domestic demand. In addition, the global economy has
recovered slower than expected and global trade growth
has remained sluggish. It is problematic for Finnish ex-
ports that the most important export areas are facing dif-
ficulties. The recession in the euro area is lasting longer
than expected, economic growth in Russia is clearly
slower and 2013 has so far been a letdown also in China.
There is no domestic growth driver, either.
Based on preliminary data, total production contracted
0.1% in Q1 from the previous quarter and over 2% com-
pared to one year ago. With this in mind, we estimate
growth to remain slow for another few quarters. Accord-
ingly, we have decreased our growth forecast to -0.5%
for 2013 (from 0.5%) and to 1.5% for 2014 (from 2.2%).
The growth estimates of all components of GDP have
been revised down. Exports, imports and investment will
continue the downward trend from last year and con-
sumption will only grow feebly. In our view, total pro-
duction will not grow at all this year in quantitative
terms. Due to non-existent economic growth, the unem-
ployment rate is expected to settle at 8.3% on average
both in 2013 and 2014.
Exports will not recover until 2014
We estimated in our March forecast that Finnish exports
would get more steam from increased international
demand in H2 2013. We have been forced to revise this
view, as the pick-up in exports does not seem likely until
closer to the end of this year.
Exports have remained subdued this year. Goods exports
contracted close to 5% in January–March compared to
the same period last year, and few industries were able to
increase their exports. One reason for this drop is the
export of communication devices, which collapsed by a
whopping 75%. The proportion of this industry used to
be significant, but it has now shrunk to a meagre 1%. The
working-day adjusted production of the manufacturing
industry was a good 5% smaller than one year ago, and
the capacity utilisation rate was lower than usual. There
is no quick pick-up of exports on horizon, as new orders
of the manufacturing industry are still soft.
Certain indicators, such as the global PMI and OECD's
leading indicator, have continued to rise in the past few
months. This trend supports the idea of a moderate
recovery in global trade. On the back of this, we do not
expect Finnish exports, driven by investment goods, raw
materials and production supplies, to pick up
significantly more pace before late this year. As a whole,
export volumes will remain slightly smaller than last
year.
Investment will decrease
Exports and new manufacturing orders are fairly good
indicators of the trend in machinery and equipment
investment for a couple of quarters forward. The recent
performance of the two and current expectations do not
indicate an upturn in machinery and equipment
investment before 2014. New building permits and
Finland: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (EURbn) 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 94 3.3 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.9
Government consumption 43 -0.3 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.5
Fixed investment 34 1.9 7.1 -2.9 -3.3 2.7
Stockbuilding* -2 0.8 1.3 -1.7 0.0 0.0
Exports 64 7.5 2.9 -1.4 -0.3 4.3
Imports 62 6.9 6.1 -3.7 -0.8 4.1
GDP 3.3 2.8 -0.2 -0.5 1.5
Nominal GDP (EURbn) 172 179 189 194 198 205
Unemployment rate, % 8.4 7.8 7.7 8.3 8.3
Industrial production, % y/y 8.3 1.0 -1.8 -4.0 2.0
Consumer prices, % y/y 1.2 3.4 2.8 1.6 2.0
Hourly w ages, % y/y 2.6 2.7 3.2 2.0 1.6
Current account (EURbn) 2.9 -2.4 -3.0 -2.9 -2.8
- % of GDP 1.6 -1.3 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4
Trade balance (EURbn) 2.6 -1.2 0.3 0.1 0.3
- % of GDP 1.4 -0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2
General govt budget balance (EURbn) -4.5 -1.5 -3.7 -3.8 -3.2
- % of GDP -2.5 -0.8 -1.9 -1.9 -1.6
Gross public debt (EURbn) 87.0 92.8 103.1 110.1 116.0
- % of GDP 48.6 49.0 53.0 55.6 56.7
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)

10. ■ Finland
10 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
initiated projects suggest that new construction will also
decrease this year. Reconstruction will, however,
moderate the decline in construction.
Employment will continue to weaken
The economic recession will weaken employment with a
lag. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 8.2%
on average in January–April from 7.6% in the same
period last year. With economic activity low, we expect
the labour market to continue to weaken for the rest of
the year and the unemployment rate to increase to 8.5%
in the coming autumn.
Consumer price growth to slow down
Consumer prices rose clearly less than expected in
January–April 2013. The price rise is curbed by the
economic recession, weaker employment, significant
slowdown in producer and wholesale price growth and
the passed peak in housing prices. We have decreased
our consumer price rise forecast for 2013 to 1.6%. In
2014 we estimate the rise in consumer prices to be 2%.
Drive from consumption to abate clearly
The purchasing power of households will not increase at
all this year even though the consumer price rise has
stabilised. Employment will weaken more than expected,
income level will rise less than last year and taxation will
be tightened. Our forecast also assumes that households
will continue to save less. Consumption growth will
remain subdued in 2014 too. Moreover, we believe the
rise in wages to be justifiably moderate, pensions to rise
less than last year and income taxation to be tightened.
Many municipalities will decide to raise the tax rate, and
it has been preliminarily decided that there will be no
usual inflation adjustments in the income tax brackets
next year either.
Trade balance still in small surplus
The trade balance again showed a small surplus last year
after a deficit in 2011 for the first time in two decades. In
the forecast period, the trade balance will continue to
show a small surplus, as weak domestic demand will
weigh on goods exports. The current account will,
however, continue to show a clear deficit.
Public finances will not change direction without
action
The public sector deficit will not decrease much in the
forecast period without special action. The government's
borrowing need will continue to be significant, and the
public debt to GDP ratio is approaching the 60% mark at
a steady pace.
Pasi Sorjonen
pasi.sorjonen@nordea.com +358 9 165 59942
First signs of a pick-up in world trade volumes …
… suggesting gradually stronger Finnish exports
Unemployment has started to increase
Consumer price pressures have eased
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65 % y/y
World trade volume, 3M mov. avg.
Index
Global PMI, export orders
3M mov. avg., advanced 3M
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30 % y/y
World trade volume
% y/y
Volume of Finnish goods exports
Note: 3M mov. avg.
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14 %
Unemployment rate
Finland, non-SA
Unemployment rate, Euro area, SA
%
Unemployment rate, Finland, SA
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5 % y/y
Consumer
prices (CPI)
Wholesale prices
Producer prices (manufacturing)
% y/y

11. ■ Key figures
11 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
Growth, % Inflation, %
2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E
World1) 5.2 3.9 3.2 3.2 4.0 World1) 3.7 4.9 4.0 3.7 3.9
USA 2.4 1.8 2.2 1.9 2.8 USA 1.6 3.1 2.1 1.6 2.4
Euro area 2.0 1.4 -0.5 -0.8 1.0 Euro area 1.6 2.7 2.5 1.4 1.5
China 10.4 9.3 7.8 7.8 8.2 China 3.3 5.4 2.6 4.0 4.2
Japan 4.7 -0.5 2.0 1.4 1.1 Japan -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.8
Denmark 1.6 1.1 -0.5 0.3 1.3 Denmark 2.3 2.8 2.4 0.9 1.4
Norw ay 1.7 2.5 3.4 2.6 2.2 Norw ay 2.5 1.2 0.8 1.9 1.4
Sw eden 6.6 3.7 0.7 1.5 2.5 Sw eden 1.2 3.0 0.9 0.0 1.4
UK 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.6 1.5 UK 3.3 4.5 2.8 2.2 2.0
Germany 4.0 3.1 0.9 0.2 1.6 Germany 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.4 1.5
France 1.7 1.7 0.0 -0.2 1.0 France 1.5 2.1 2.0 1.2 1.6
Italy 1.7 0.4 -2.4 -1.5 0.6 Italy 1.6 2.9 3.3 1.5 1.5
Spain -0.3 0.4 -1.4 -1.6 0.8 Spain 2.0 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.2
Finland 3.3 2.8 -0.2 -0.5 1.5 Finland 1.2 3.4 2.8 1.6 2.0
Estonia 3.3 8.3 3.2 3.2 3.8 Estonia 3.0 5.0 3.9 3.5 3.3
Poland 3.9 4.3 2.0 1.8 2.8 Poland 2.6 4.3 3.7 1.6 2.5
Russia 4.5 4.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Russia 8.8 6.1 6.6 6.4 5.9
Latvia -0.9 5.5 5.6 3.7 4.4 Latvia -1.1 4.4 2.3 1.6 2.7
Lithuania 1.5 5.9 3.6 4.0 4.2 Lithuania 3.8 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.4
India 9.8 7.3 5.1 5.9 6.6 India 9.6 9.5 7.5 6.8 6.7
Brazil 7.6 2.7 1.5 3.5 4.2 Brazil 5.0 6.6 5.2 5.6 5.8
Rest of World 5.7 4.5 3.5 3.5 4.0 Rest of World 5.4 6.8 6.4 5.7 5.5
Public finances, % of GDP Current account, % of GDP
2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E
USA -9.0 -8.7 -7.0 -5.1 -3.6 USA -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.2 -3.5
Euro area -6.2 -4.1 -3.7 -2.9 -2.7 Euro area 0.2 0.3 1.8 2.5 2.7
China -1.7 -1.1 -1.6 -2.3 -1.9 China 4.0 2.8 2.3 2.2 1.5
Japan -9.5 -10.0 -10.2 -9.8 -9.3 Japan 3.7 2.0 1.6 2.0 2.1
Denmark -2.7 -2.0 -4.3 -1.4 -1.6 Denmark 5.9 5.6 5.5 4.6 3.5
Norw ay 11.1 13.6 14.3 11.5 12.6 Norw ay 11.9 12.8 14.2 11.1 12.3
Sw eden 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -1.3 -1.5 Sw eden 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.7 6.7
UK -10.2 -7.8 -6.5 -6.5 -5.0 UK -2.5 -1.3 -3.7 -3.0 -1.8
Germany -4.1 -0.8 0.1 -0.5 0.5 Germany 6.1 5.6 6.3 6.0 5.6
France -7.1 -5.2 -4.6 -3.8 -4.1 France -2.0 -2.6 -1.9 -1.6 -1.8
Italy -4.3 -3.8 -2.8 -2.0 -1.9 Italy -3.5 -3.3 -0.7 0.6 0.8
Spain -9.7 -9.4 -10.2 -6.7 -7.2 Spain -4.4 -3.7 -1.9 1.0 2.5
Finland -2.5 -0.8 -1.9 -1.9 -1.6 Finland 1.6 -1.3 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4
Estonia 0.2 1.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 Estonia 3.2 2.1 -1.5 -2.1 -2.2
Poland -7.8 -5.0 -3.5 -3.8 -3.2 Poland -5.1 -4.9 -3.5 -2.5 -3.1
Russia -3.9 0.8 -0.2 0.3 0.2 Russia 5.0 5.4 4.3 3.0 2.5
Latvia -8.2 -3.5 -1.5 -1.2 -1.0 Latvia 3.0 -2.2 -1.7 -2.3 -3.0
Lithuania -7.2 -5.5 -3.0 -2.8 -3.0 Lithuania 0.1 -3.7 -0.9 -2.5 -3.0
India -4.0 -7.2 -5.8 -5.3 -5.5 India -3.2 -3.4 -4.0 -4.5 -5.0
Brazil -2.7 -2.6 -2.1 -2.1 -2.0 Brazil -2.2 -2.1 -2.6 -2.7 -2.6
1) Weighted average of 184 countries. Weights for all countries and data for Rest of World are from the most recent World Economic Outlook, by the IM F. The weights are calculated from PPP-
adjusted GDP-levels

12. ■ Key figures
12 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
Monetary policy rates Monetary policy rate spreads vs Euro area
10.6.13 3M 31.12.13 30.6.14 31.12.14 10.6.13 3M 31.12.13 30.6.14 31.12.14
US 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 US -0,25 -0,25 -0,25 -0,25 -0,25
Japan 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 Japan1
-0,15 -0,15 -0,15 -0,15 -0,15
Euro area 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 Euro area - - - - -
Denmark 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,35 0,50 Denmark -0,30 -0,30 -0,30 -0,15 0,00
Sw eden 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,25 1,50 Sw eden 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,75 1,00
Norw ay 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,75 Norw ay 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,25
UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 UK 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Sw itzerland 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Sw itzerland -0,50 -0,50 -0,50 -0,50 -0,50
Poland 3,00 2,75 2,75 2,75 3,50 Poland 2,50 2,25 2,25 2,25 3,00
Russia 8,25 8,25 8,00 8,00 8,00 Russia 7,75 7,75 7,50 7,50 7,50
China 6,00 6,00 6,25 6,50 6,50 China 5,50 5,50 5,75 6,00 6,00
India 7,25 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,25 India 6,75 6,50 6,50 6,50 6,75
Brazil 8,00 8,25 8,50 8,75 9,50 Brazil 7,50 7,75 8,00 8,25 9,00
1) Against the US
3-month rates 3-month spreads vs Euro area
10.6.13 3M 31.12.13 30.6.14 31.12.14 10.6.13 3M 31.12.13 30.6.14 31.12.14
US 0,28 0,30 0,35 0,35 0,60 US 0,08 0,10 0,15 0,05 0,20
Euro area 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,30 0,40 Euro area - - - - -
Denmark 0,28 0,30 0,35 0,45 0,55 Denmark 0,08 0,10 0,15 0,15 0,15
Sw eden 1,25 1,25 1,25 1,75 1,85 Sw eden 1,05 1,05 1,05 1,45 1,45
Norw ay 1,84 1,70 1,70 1,70 1,95 Norw ay 1,64 1,50 1,50 1,40 1,55
UK 0,51 0,60 0,60 0,60 0,65 UK 0,31 0,40 0,40 0,30 0,25
Poland 3,46 2,75 2,85 3,00 3,75 Poland 3,26 2,55 2,65 2,70 3,35
Russia 7,14 7,20 7,00 7,00 7,00 Russia 6,94 7,00 6,80 6,70 6,60
Latvia 0,47 0,45 0,20 0,30 0,40 Latvia 0,27 0,25 0,00 0,00 0,00
Lithuania 0,47 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,75 Lithuania 0,27 0,30 0,30 0,20 0,35
10-year government benchmark yields 10-year yield spreads vs Euro area
10.6.13 3M 31.12.13 30.6.14 31.12.14 10.6.13 3M 31.12.13 30.6.14 31.12.14
US 2,03 2,00 2,65 2,80 3,25 US 0,54 0,70 0,75 0,70 0,85
Euro area 1,49 1,30 1,90 2,10 2,40 Euro area - - - - -
Denmark 1,66 1,40 2,00 2,20 2,50 Denmark 0,17 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10
Sw eden 1,96 1,80 2,40 2,85 3,05 Sw eden 0,47 0,50 0,50 0,75 0,65
Norw ay 2,31 2,03 2,69 2,94 3,18 Norw ay 0,82 0,73 0,79 0,84 0,78
UK 1,98 2,05 2,40 2,55 2,85 UK 0,49 0,75 0,50 0,45 0,45
Poland 3,92 3,20 3,30 3,50 3,80 Poland 2,43 1,90 1,40 1,40 1,40
Exchange rates vs SEK Exchange rates vs EUR and USD
10.6.13 3M 31.12.13 30.6.14 31.12.14 10.6.13 3M 31.12.13 30.6.14 31.12.14
EUR/SEK 8,71 8,45 8,45 8,20 8,20 EUR/USD 1,32 1,32 1,25 1,20 1,15
USD/SEK 6,59 6,40 6,76 6,83 7,13 EUR/JPY1) 131 132 125 126 127
JPY/SEK1
6,67 6,40 6,76 6,51 6,48 EUR/GBP 0,85 0,85 0,87 0,83 0,80
DKK/SEK 1,17 1,13 1,13 1,10 1,10 EUR/CHF 1,24 1,25 1,25 1,25 1,30
NOK/SEK 1,14 1,12 1,13 1,09 1,06 EUR/SEK 8,71 8,45 8,45 8,20 8,20
GBP/SEK 10,24 10,00 9,71 9,88 10,25 EUR/NOK 7,62 7,55 7,50 7,50 7,70
CHF/SEK 7,03 6,76 6,76 6,56 6,31 EUR/PLN 4,26 4,05 3,95 3,90 3,85
PLN/SEK 2,05 2,09 2,14 2,10 2,13 USD/JPY 98,7 100,0 100,0 105,0 110,0
GBP/USD 1,55 1,56 1,44 1,45 1,44
RUB/SEK 0,20 0,21 0,23 0,23 0,25 USD/CHF 0,94 0,95 1,00 1,04 1,13
USD/SEK 6,59 6,40 6,76 6,83 7,13
LVL/SEK 12,41 12,07 12,07 11,67 11,67 USD/NOK 5,76 5,72 6,00 6,25 6,70
LTL/SEK 2,52 2,45 2,45 2,37 2,37 USD/PLN 3,22 3,07 3,16 3,25 3,35
CNY/SEK 1,07 1,05 1,12 1,16 1,25 USD/CNY 6,13 6,10 6,05 5,90 5,70
1) Per 100 units USD/INR 57,9 55,0 54,5 53,0 50,0
USD/BRL 2,14 1,93 1,87 1,85 1,75

13. 13 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
Sweden:
Annika Winsth, Chief Economist Sweden
annika.winsth@nordea.com, +46 8 614 8608
Torbjörn Isaksson, Chief Analyst
torbjorn.isaksson@nordea.com, +46 8 614 8859
Andreas Jonsson, Senior Analyst
andreas.w.jonsson@nordea.com, +46 8 534 910 88
Bengt Roström, Senior Analyst
bengt.rostrom@nordea.com, +46 8 614 8378
Lena Sellgren, Senior Analyst
lena.sellgren@nordea.com, +46 8 614 88 62
Siri Pettersson, Assistant Analyst
siri.pettersson@nordea.com, +46 8 614 80 03
Rickard Bredeby, Assistant Analyst
rickard.bredeby@nordea.com, +46 8 614 80 03
Estonia:
Tönu Palm, Chief Economist Estonia
tonu.palm@nordea.com, +372 628 3345
Latvia:
Andris Strazds, Chief Economist Latvia
andris.strazds@nordea.com, +371 67 096 096
Lithuania:
Zygimantas Mauricas, Chief Economist Lithuania
zygimantas.mauricas@nordea.com, +370 5 2657 198
Russia:
Dmitry A. Savchenko, Chief Economist Russia
dmitry.savchenko@nordea.ru, +7 495 777 34 77 4194
Dmitry S. Fedenkov, Analyst
dmitry.fedenkov@nordea.ru, +7 495 777 34 77 3368
Poland:
Piotr Bujak, Chief Economist Poland
piotr.bujak@nordea.com, +48 22 521 36 51
Economic Research Nordea
Denmark:
Helge J. Pedersen, Global Chief Economist
helge.pedersen@nordea.com, +45 3333 3126
Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Chief Analyst
johnny.jakobsen@nordea.com, +45 3333 6178
Anders Svendsen, Chief Analyst
anders.svendsen@nordea.com, +45 3333 3951
Holger Sandte, Chief Analyst
holger.sandte@nordea.com, +45 3333 1191
Jan Størup Nielsen, Senior Analyst
jan.storup.nielsen@nordea.com, +45 3333 3171
Amy Yuan Zhuang, Senior Analyst
amy.yuan.zhuang@nordea.com, +45 3333 5607
Aurelija Augulyte, Senior Analyst
aurelija.augulyte@nordea.com, +45 3333 6437
Heidi Østergaard, Assistant Analyst
ostergaard.heidi@nordea.com, +45 3333 6102
Henrik Lorin Rasmussen, Assistant Analyst
henrik.l.rasmussen@nordea.com, +45 3333 4007
Daniel Freyr Gustafsson, Assistant Analyst
daniel.freyr.gustafsson@nordea.com, +45 3333 5115
Finland:
Roger Wessman, Chief Economist Finland
roger.wessman@nordea.com, +358 9 165 59930
Pasi Sorjonen, Chief Analyst
pasi.sorjonen@nordea.com, +358 9 1655 9942
Annika Lindblad, Analyst
annika.lindblad@nordea.com, +358 9 1655 9940
Norway:
Steinar Juel, Chief Economist Norway
steinar.juel@nordea.com, +47 2248 6130
Erik Bruce, Chief Analyst
erik.bruce@nordea.com, +47 2248 4449
Thina M. Saltvedt, Chief Analyst
thina.margrethe.saltvedt@nordea.com, +47 2248 7993
Katrine Godding Boye, Senior Analyst
katrine.godding.boye@nordea.com, +47 2248 7977
Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Senior Analyst
bjornar.tonhaugen@nordea.com, +47 2248 7959

14. 14 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS │JUNI 2013 NORDEA MARKETS
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