What's next after QE4 by IG Markets - Chris Weston and Ryan Huang - 18Nov14

1. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
IG Execution and Client Trends

2. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
Execution Stats
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3. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
ProOrder: Automated Trading and Backtesting

4. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
APIs

5. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
Client Trends
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Equities
FX
Futures

6. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
Client Sentiment

7. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
Market Screener

8. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
Chinese Opportunities

9. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
SEARCHING SECTORS
RYAN HUANG
MARKET STRATEGIST

10. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
DISCLAIMER

11. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
SECTOR ROTATION
WHICH INDUSTRIES BENEFIT?
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-
-

12. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
SECTOR ROTATION
WHICH INDUSTRIES BENEFIT?
ECONOMY
Recovery
Expansion
EARLY
MID
LATE
Contraction
RECESSION

13. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
SECTOR ROTATION
EARLY
•Activity rebounds! (GDP, IP, incomes)
•Credit
•Profit
•Policy still stimulative
•Inventories low: Sales improve
•Low interest rates, hints of economic improvement?
Consumer discretionary : Autos Financials : Real Estate, Banks
Tech : Intel, Google, Microsoft, Apple
Industrials : Boeing, Caterpillar and Lockheed

14. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
SECTOR ROTATION
MID
•Growth peaking
•Credit growth strong
•Profit growth strong
•Policy neutral
•Equilibrium
Tech : Cisco, Intel, Google, Microsoft, Apple
Industrials : General Electric, 3M, UPS

15. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
SECTOR ROTATION
LATE
•Growth moderating
•Credit tightens
•Earnings under pressure
•Overheating = Policy contraction
•Inventories grow, sales fall
Healthcare : GSK, Pfizer, Novartis, Roche
Energy : Santos, Oil Search, Chesapeake, Peabody

16. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
SECTOR ROTATION
RECESSION
•GDP flatlines
•Credit dries up
•Profits decline
•Policy eases
Consumer staples : Procter & Gamble, Unilever Healthcare : GSK, Pfizer, Roche, Gilead Utilities : Hyflux, American Electric Power

17. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
SECTOR ROTATION
RELATIVE PERFORMANCE
(source: Fidelity Investments)

18. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
SECTOR ROTATION
FURTHER ANALYSIS
•Macro-fundamental analysis Other variables impacting industry? Eg. oil prices, regulations, epidemics
•Bottom-up Company specific drivers? Eg. breakthrough product, unique edge, currency/market exposure

19. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
MACRO ANALYSIS
OIL
Sharpest decline in recent years
Down over 30% since June, 4-year lows

20. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
MACRO ANALYSIS
OIL
•lower input costs, good for biz
•lower expenses, household budgets grow Winners
•Retail, and F&B
•Airlines

21. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
MACRO ANALYSIS
OIL
Losers
•BP earnings were hit by lower oil prices
•Woodside, Santos and Oil Search, SembCorp Marine What next: to cut or not to cut? OPEC meeting on 27 November in Vienna

22. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
BUY RUMOUR, SELL FACT

23. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
SELL ON FACT
APPLE IPHONE 5: 12, 19 SEP 2012

24. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
SELL ON FACT
APPLE IPHONE 4: 7, 24 JUN 2010

25. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
SELL ON FACT
APPLE IPHONE 3GS: 8 JUN 2009

26. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
IPHONE LAUNCH IMPACT
Product
% change on announcement
Pullback within a week
iPhone 6, 6 Plus
-0.38% (Sept 9, 2014)
NA
iPhone 5S, 5C
-2.28% (Sept 10, 2013)
-5.4%
iPhone 5
+1.39% (Sept 12, 2012)
NA
iPhone 4S
-0.56% (Oct 4,2011)
-0.72%
iPhone 4
-1.96% (Jun 7, 2010)
-3%
iPhone 3GS
-0.57% (Jun 8, 2009)
-5.3%
iPhone 3G
-2.17% (Jun 9, 2008)
-5.1%
iPhone
+8.3% (Jan 9, 2007)
NA
(Source: IG)

27. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
DIGGING FOR TECH
AMAZON

28. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
SELL ON FACT
AMAZON MUSIC SERVICE + FIRE PHONE
-2.77%
-2.21%
JUNE 2014

29. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
GLOBAL MARKETS OUTLOOK
November 2014

30. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
DISCLAIMER

31. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
US MARKET STILL TRENDING HIGHER

32. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
GOLD FIND BUYERS BELOW $1180

33. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
THE RACE FOR THE BOTTOM

34. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
BUY JAPAN
• US$ 180 billion of outflows
• An extra ¥30 trillion in JGB
purchases
• Buying ETFs pegged to the JPX
Nikkei
• Bank of Yokohama (8332)
• Mitsubishi Estate (8802)
• Sumitomo Electric
• Nomura (8604)
• MAZDA motors (7261)

35. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
USD/JPY – LOOKING STRONG

36. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
GBP/JPY – LOOKING STRONG

37. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
EUR/USD – EYEING KEY SUPPORT

38. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
WHY IG?
LARGEST CFD ASSET CLASS OFFERING
• Singapore shares – over 300 incl. flexibility using Direct Market Access (DMA)
• International shares – over 6000
• ETFs
• FX, over 60 pairs
• Stock Index CFDs, over 20 countries
• 24-hour trading is available for major indices
• Gold, Silver, Oil, Soft commodities

39. IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK LUNCEON IG’S GLOBAL OUTLOOK - NOVEMBER
Low transaction costs
• 0.10% commission for Singapore shares, 0.25% for HK shares, 2 cents / share for US market
• No commission for FX, commodities and indices – just highly competitive dealing spreads
Low capital requirement
Margin starts from :
• 10% for Share CFDs
• 2% for Forex CFDs
• 5% for Index CFDs
IS IG SUITABLE FOR YOU?
LARGEST CFD ASSET CLASS OFFERING