1. Proving and improving the effectiveness of
marketing activities
Nigel Keats and Dr Jeremy Buckley
Real Intelligence

2. The world has changed
 Marketing activity and the business environment has
become more complex
 Greater accountability is required
 Your success is also dependent on other functions in
your organisation and external factors

3. Real Intelligence provides just that
 Intelligence from measuring the actual performance of all
elements of your marketing programme using
econometric analysis and modelling
 Which elements are really working and how well?
 What the return on investment is for each element and
overall
 Enabling you to make business decisions based on real
facts from actual measured performance
 Turning your data into dollars

4.  How much of the sales changes are due to price? –
yours or competitors
 Is that packaging change boosting sales?
 What would happen if you doubled your advertising
spend? Or halved it?
 Is your social media activity resulting in sales?
 Why aren’t you selling as much in some regions or
stores?
 Which elements of your promotions mix are delivering the
best results?
 What is the return on investment for individual campaigns
and overall?
 Where are the weaknesses?

5.  Build accurate test and control groups
 Create lift curves and model area under curve
 Measure and model costs to acquire, retain, up-sell and
cross-sell customers
 Model lifetime value of customers using RFM models
 Customer segmentation and understanding
 Measure and model customer churn

6. Case Study – The Quit Group
 Charitable Trust with funding by Ministry of Health to
help people quit smoking
 Offers a comprehensive quit smoking programme that
involves counselling and support by phone, txt and
online plus subsidised Nicotine Replacement Therapy
 Focus on Māori, Pacific people and pregnant woman
 Their marketing
 To encourage people to register for the programme
 TV and online advertising with a call to action to phone
or sign-up online
 61,000 registrations last year
How to optimise their marketing spend?

7. Our approach
 Created and followed the marketing funnel from
addressable audience to registrations via phone or
website
 Undertook hundreds of econometric analyses of the
relationship between factors including TV and online
advertising, call centre activity and website visits
 Included analyses of price and sales volume changes to
the top 100 brands of cigarettes and loose
tobacco, influence of other advertising and PR

8. Call model based on advertising and other influences
Media
spend
drives
people to
call the call
centre…
8

9. Modeled calls with one week lag
Advertising
has both an
immediate
and
delayed
effect…
9

10. We were able to….
 Measure the contribution advertising makes
 Measure how much TV advertising drives website responses and online
advertising drives phone responses
 Identify the incremental costs per phone and online registration from TV
advertising
 Identify pressure points within the call centre that affected levels of calls
not answered and conversion rates
 Identify disparity between when TV advertising was running and when
respondents preferred to call
 Identify the point of diminishing returns with the level of online advertising
 Identify why not advertising prior to and when the call centre was closed
didn’t slow call volumes
 Quantify the impact tobacco excise tax increases, other advertising in the
sector and PR had on registrations
10

11. …which enabled the client to…
 have informed discussions with stakeholders over issues over
issues such as organizational performance and funding, impact of
cigarette pricing and other parties advertising on registrations
 take steps to improve performance of the website, call centre and
advertising media buying
 improve future monitoring of advertisement and media buying
performance
 to predict future costs per registration by channel and to make call
volume predictions by zone to optimise call centre capacity

12. About us
 Marketing and Maths
 Analysis by many marketers often falls below the
standard of dedicated data analytics professionals
 Data analysts often fail to understand business and
marketing and therefore what is important to measure
 Nigel Keats – 25 years experience in marketing and
communications. Former Managing Director of OMD
Wellington
 Dr Jeremy Buckley. PHD in Mathematics. Fulbright
Scholar. Successful entrepreneur

13. How we work
 Initial look
 Ascertain objectives of organisation. Is available data
robust? check data formats, scope bespoke project and
report
 Project
 Collect remaining data, formatting, bespoke
analyses, client liaison, form conclusions and
recommendations, write presentation(s) and
reports, present and discuss. Arrange peer review (if
required)

14. We may use Non-Linear Moving-Average Conditional
Heteroskedasticity, the Shapiro Wilk Test and
ARIMA Models, but we’ll speak and report in plain
English

15. Real Intelligence empowers your business to re-
evaluate strategies and shift resources to the most
effective marketing channels

17. Contact:
Nigel Keats
nigel@realintelligence.co.nz
Tel 04 8012805
021 2487010
Skype : Nigel.keats100