How do the 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios model future energy demand? Nigel Fox looks at projections for heating, lighting, domestic, industrial and commercial demand.

1. Twitter: #ukenergy
email: transmission.ukfes@nationalgrid.com
Energy Demand
Nigel Fox: Energy Demand Manager

2. 2
Policy & Incentives major driver of change
Consumer affordability & preferences
Industry
Commercial
2042

3. Feel the Heat…
 Nearly half the energy we use is used
for heating and heat is a major
component in our scenarios
 Our models focus on the residential
sector – residential heat is the largest
component of natural gas demand
 Our modelling has examined insulation,
boilers, heat pumps and district heating
Non Heat
15%
Heat
44%
Transport
41%
Energy Use 2011
Source: DECC

4. Residential insulation savings, much has
been achieved to date
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Year
GG: Higher
uptake of solid
wall insulation
NP: Lower uptake
of insulation
generally
LCL/SP: Higher
uptake of cavity and
loft insulation
Significant savings
already achieved
primarily through
government
schemes
35TWh/a
12 TWH
Success of ECO and
Green Deal crucial to
deliver GG savings
HeatSavingTWh/yr

5. Gas heating dominates residential sector;
boiler replacement dominates heat savings
0
20
40
60
80
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035Loft insulation Cavity wall insulation Solid Wall insulation Boilers
Boiler replacement
dominates heat
savings in all
scenarios
Savings much
> than NP
Comfort factor
cannot be ignored
HeatSavingTWh/yr
Gone Green
Policy has been key
in delivering boiler
savings

6. New Houses – annual heat demand, with
great scope for reductions in the future
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Year
GG/SP:
Passivhaus
standards
reached by
2030
NP/LCL: Half the
rate of thermal
efficiencies
compared to
GG/SP
3.2 MWh
3.7m new houses
expected by 2035
AnnualHeatDemandMWh/yr
Building regs are key
to delivering savings
in new build

7. Heat Pump technology, do we need a
Paradigm shift?
7
Sales figures, stakeholder views
and expected improvements in
technology form the backbone of
our modelling
Oil and electric systems first to be replaced,
with hybrid systems towards end of period
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
GG: Highest
scenario
All other
scenarios
Heating systems often distressed
purchases; consumers buy known
technologies
Much uncertainty for
this technology -
some form of further
intervention could
see this market kick
started
Millions
Widespread uptake will be dependent on
RHI and consumer affordability

8. District Heating highlighted in Heat
Strategy 2013; features in all scenarios
8
Existing schemes
mainly have anchor
loads
c80 schemes serving
200k residential
properties
LCL sees a move into the residential sector in new
housing (garden cities) rather than retrofit
GG/SP: CHP in
Commercial
buildings
Picture courtesy of Ceequal
Opportunity of synergy with
electricity balancing through
the use of interseasonal
storage

9. Changing Rooms Lighting – moving on
from Halogens
9
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
Halogen
LED
CFL
Incandescent
Fluorescent
Gone Green
Millionbulbs

10. Consumers love affair with Halogens
knows no end…
100
200
400
600
800
1,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
Millionbulbs
Low Carbon Life
Incandescent
Fluorescent
Halogen
LED
CFL
Tension between consumer
preferences and policy
intervention unless
manufacturers champion
LEDs

11. 11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033
TWh/yr
Setting the right pathway can deliver
massive savings in lighting demand
LCL
GG
NP
SP
10 TWH
GG sees policy intervention
early; SP sees it later

12. Residential Appliances
– 60% residential demand
12
55
60
65
70
75
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033
TWh/yr
NP
SP
Largest difference driven by cold/wet appliance efficiency and
adoption of electronics
Efficiency improves through technology development and the
introduction of policy standards
More desktops
More stuff
Replace
on fail
LCL
GG
Consumer preferences and
efficiency standards drive
demand for goods

13. 13
100
125
150
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Power
200
250
300
350
400
Gas
TWh/yr
Efficiencies
balance
growth
Uptake of
Heat Pumps
Electrification
of transport
Residential Energy – adding up the numbers

14. Annual Demand – I&C
14
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
Gas
Decrease reliance on gas
over past decade
Shift away from energy
intensive industries
towards commercial
sector
175
200
225
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Power
Higher economic growth
in GG and LCL causes
the commercial gas
demand and power
demand to increase
TWh/yr

15. 15
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:00
Demand
Time
Kick off
Half Time
1800 MW
Full Time
1500MW
World Cup 2042, England v Uruguay
- in a profligate world
Score
England 2
Uruguay 1

16. 16
World Cup 2042
– in a Gone Green world
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:00
Half Time
700MW
Full Time
700MW
Demand
Time

17. 17
World Cup 2042
– in a Smart Gone Green world
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:00
Demand
Time

18. 18
World Cup 2042
– in a Smart Gone Green world
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:00
Demand
Time
Commercial
freezers
balancing
service
EVs boost
charge
EVs and
freezers provide
demand relief

19. 19
Key Messages
Legislative policy has delivered real savings to date
It could continue to drive change in the energy
sector in the future
Consumer preferences and affordability will
continue to determine the adoption of new
technologies