Researchers at the Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory have been using a combination of modeling techniques to predict the spread of the Ebola outbreak.

1. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Modeling
the
Ebola
Outbreak
in
West
Africa,
2014
January
6th
Update
Bryan
Lewis
PhD,
MPH
(blewis@vbi.vt.edu)
presen2ng
on
behalf
of
the
Ebola
Response
Team
of
Network
Dynamics
and
Simula2on
Science
Lab
from
the
Virginia
Bioinforma2cs
Ins2tute
at
Virginia
Tech
Technical
Report
#15-­‐001

2. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
NDSSL
Ebola
Response
Team
Staff:
Abhijin
Adiga,
Kathy
Alexander,
Chris
Barre.,
Richard
Beckman,
Keith
Bisset,
Jiangzhuo
Chen,
Youngyoun
Chungbaek,
Stephen
Eubank,
Sandeep
Gupta,
Maleq
Khan,
Chris
Kuhlman,
Eric
Lofgren,
Bryan
Lewis,
Achla
Marathe,
Madhav
Marathe,
Henning
Mortveit,
Eric
Nordberg,
Paula
Stretz,
Samarth
Swarup,
Meredith
Wilson,Mandy
Wilson,
and
Dawen
Xie,
with
support
from
Ginger
Stewart,
Maureen
Lawrence-­‐Kuether,
Kayla
Tyler,
Kathy
Laskowski,
Bill
Marmagas
Students:
S.M.
Arifuzzaman,
Aditya
Agashe,
Vivek
Akupatni,
Caitlin
Rivers,
Pyrros
Telionis,
Jessie
Gunter,
Elisabeth
Musser,
James
Schli.,
Youssef
Jemia,
Margaret
Carolan,
Bryan
Kaperick,
Warner
Rose,
Kara
Harrison
2

3. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Currently
Used
Data
(as
of
Dec
22nd,
2014)
● Data
from
WHO,
MoH
Liberia,
and
MoH
Sierra
Leone,
available
at
h.ps://github.com/cmrivers/ebola
● MoH
and
WHO
have
reasonable
agreement
● Sierra
Leone
case
counts
censored
up
to
4/30/14.
● Time
series
was
filled
in
with
missing
dates,
and
case
counts
were
interpolated.
3
Cases
Deaths
Guinea
2,730
1,739
Liberia
8,115
3,423
Sierra
Leone
9,633
2,827
Total
20,478
7,989

4. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Liberia
–
Case
Loca2ons
4

5. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Liberia
infec2on
rate
5

6. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Liberia
Forecast
6
11/24
to
11/30
12/1
to
12/8
12/9
to
12/16
12/15
to
12/21
12/22
to
12/28
12/29
to
1/04
1/05
to
1/11
1/12
to
1/18
1/19-­‐1
/25
1/26-­‐2
/01
Reported
246
362
99
35
101
Newer
model
303
285
270
255
240
226
214
201
190
180
Reproduc2ve
Number
Community
0.23
Hospital
0.3
Funeral
0.2
Overall
0.8

7. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Liberia
long
term
forecasts
7
Date
Weekly
forecast
12/08
270
12/15
255
12/22
240
12/29
227
1/05
213
1/12
202
1/19
190
1/26
179
2/2
169
2/9
160
2/16
150
2/23
142
3/02
134
3/09
126

8. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Liberia-­‐
Prevalence
8
Date
People
in
H
+
I
12/08
652
12/15
616
12/22
580
12/29
548
1/05
517
1/12
488
1/19
460
1/26
434
2/2
410
2/9
386
2/16
365
2/23
344
3/02
325
3/09
306

9. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Sierra
Leone
–
County
Data
9

10. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Sierra
Leone
infec2on
rate
10

11. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Sierra
Leone
Forecast
11
35%
of
cases
are
hospitalized
ReproducRve
Number
Community
0.8
Hospital
0.3
Funeral
0.1
Overall
1.1
11/24
to
11/30
12/1
to
12/8
12/9
to
12/16
12/15
to
12/21
12/22
to
12/28
12/29
to
1/04
1/05
to
1/11
1/12
to
1/18
1/19-­‐1
/25
1/26-­‐2
/01
Reported
641
598
702
531
651
467
Newer
model
612
635
660
686
713
740
769
799
830
862

12. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
SL
longer
term
forecast
12
Sierra
Leone
–
Newer
Model
fit
–
Weekly
Incidence
Date
Weekly
forecast
12/08
660
12/15
686
12/22
713
12/29
740
1/05
769
1/12
799
1/19
830
1/26
862
2/2
895
2/9
929
2/16
965
2/23
1002
3/02
1040
3/09
1080

13. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Sierra
Leone
-­‐
Prevalence
13
Date
People
in
H
+
I
12/08
898
12/15
932
12/22
968
12/29
1006
1/05
1045
1/12
1085
1/19
1128
1/26
1171
2/2
1216
2/9
1263
2/16
1319
2/23
1370
3/02
1423
3/09
1477

14. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Guinea
Forecasts
14
40%
of
cases
are
hospitalized
ReproducRve
Number
Community
0.7
Hospital
0.1
Funeral
0.1
Overall
0.9
11/24
to
11/30
12/1
to
12/8
12/9
to
12/16
12/15
to
12/21
12/22
to
12/28
12/29
to
1/04
1/05
to
1/11
1/12
to
1/18
1/19-­‐1
/25
1/26-­‐2
/01
Reported
129
44
127
132
166
106
Newer
model
89
85
81
78
75
72
68
66
60
58

15. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Guinea
–
longer
term
forecast
15
Date
Weekly
forecast
12/08
81
12/15
78
12/22
75
12/29
72
1/05
69
1/12
66
1/19
63
1/26
60
2/2
58
2/9
55
2/16
53
2/23
51
3/02
48

16. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Guinea
Prevalence
16
Date
People
in
H+I
12/08
98
12/15
94
12/22
90
12/29
86
1/05
82
1/12
79
1/19
76
1/26
72
2/2
69
2/9
66
2/16
64
2/23
61
3/02
58

17. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Agent-­‐based
model
progress
• Sierra
Leone
calibra2on
– Behavioral
Shil
of
17%
in
Mid-­‐Oct
– Debugging
of
HPC
environment
– 2nd
round
of
calibra2on
is
be.er,
s2ll
not
sa2sfied
• Fundamental
science
of
calibra2on
– Methods
for
iden2fying
epidemic
instances
being
developed
– Extensions
to
simula2on
engine
to
generate
an
“enriched”
set
of
instances
underway
17

18. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
Sierra
Leone
Calibra2on
18

19. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
App
Development
• EpiViewer
enhancements
– Added
more
filters
– Improving
visualiza2on
before
broader
release
19

20. DRAFT
–
Not
for
a.ribu2on
or
distribu2on
App
Development
• Eyes-­‐on-­‐the-­‐Ground
– Sierra
Leone
road
network
analysis
underway
– Support
for
older
browser
being
inves2gated
• Older
version
of
std
didn’t
support
current
implementa2on
20