The U.S. economic recovery slowed in the second quarter of 2011, with GDP growth declining. Inflation remains a concern although wage growth remains weak. Gasoline prices have fallen but housing continues to struggle. The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates near zero and ended its bond-buying program. There is uncertainty around raising the U.S. debt ceiling and the fiscal health of European countries continues to cause investor reluctance in European markets. The portfolio has maintained a short average maturity as extension opportunities provide little compensation for potential rising yields.
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National Investment Fund for Credit Unions (NIFCU$) 2nd Quarter 2011 Market Commentary
1. Second Quarter 2011
Market Commentary
It appears the U.S. economic recovery hit a soft patch this past quarter. First quarter 2011 GDP declined to
+1 9% from the +3 1% posted for the last quarter of 2010 There remain concerns about rising inflationary
1.9% 3.1% 2010.
pressures, although not in the area of wages, given the still anemic job market. Gasoline prices have
softened a bit, as crude oil futures have come off their recent high of $114.71 per barrel at the end of April, to
just over $95 per barrel at quarter-end. This is a small bit of good news for consumers as housing, another
key drag on the recovery, is still struggling under the weight of an upswing in foreclosures, sizable inventory
of unsold property, and tighter mortgage credit guidelines.
Federal Reserve interest rate policy remains unchanged since December 2008 at the peak of the credit
crisis, with short-term benchmark rates effectively at zero. Although the Fed’s most recent stimulus program
(QEII) ended as scheduled on June 30th, it remains to be seen if their absence as the largest buyer in the
U.S. Treasury and Agency securities markets will result in higher rates to attract buyers to fill the void.
The lack of a resolution to the debate over increasing the U.S. debt ceiling and the implications for the 2012
budget and beyond means there has not been any increase in short-term U.S. Treasury bill supply. With the
recent involvement of President Obama we expect a deal to be reached on this issue before the critical
Obama,
early August deadline.
The continued turmoil surrounding the EU/IMF led bailout of Greece and speculation as to the fiscal health
of other countries in the region, have investors reluctant to have any exposure to Euro-Zone credits. Money-
market participants continue to struggle in this low interest rate environment, challenged by a general lack of
high-quality investment options. Although banks have largely adjusted to the April 1st implementation of the
new FDIC assessment calculations risk avoidance is still driving up demand for U S Treasury and Agency
calculations, U.S.
securities.
The portfolio has maintained its average maturity on the shorter-end of the spectrum this past quarter, as
extension opportunities are few and largely do not compensate for the risk of an unexpected rise in yields.
We remain vigilant as to our credit exposures. Although we now expect the Fed to hold interest rates at
current levels through the end of 2011, we look for normalization of U.S. Treasury bill supply late in the third
quarter and a gradual uptick in short term yields
short-term yields.
Hillary Elder, Team Leader
NIFCU$ 350 California Street, 11th Floor San Francisco, CA 94104
Toll-Free (800) 634-6521 www.nifcus.com
2. Fund Profile
Adviser: HighMark® Capital Management, Inc. State Domicile: California
Custodian: Union Bank, N.A. Shareholder Base: Credit Unions
Trustee: Union Bank N.A.
Bank, N A Inception: September 25, 1975
25
Auditor: Deloitte & Touche Rating: Moody’s Investor Services
Sponsor: NAFCU Services Corporation Aaa-mf assigned 12/18/97
Fund Analysis*
Period E di
P i d Ending 2Q ’11 2Q ’10 2Q ‘09
Total Net Assets ($Mil) 187.7 275.8 570.2
WAM Range (min to max, in days) 13-24 12-35 15-49
WAM Average (in days) 18 23 30
Effective 30 day yield 0.01 0.16 0.25
Portfolio Composition Portfolio Review*
As of June 30, 2011 Monthly Average Rate
Municipal VRDNs
19.05%
Apr 2011 0.04%
May 2011
y 0.04%
Jun 2011 0.02%
O/N Repurchase
Agreements
7.47%
U.S. Gov't Eurodollar Time
Agencies
52.18% I’m interested in finding out more about NIFCU$
Deposits
7.99%
Certificates of
Deposit/BA's
13.31%
National Investment Fund for Credit Unions ("NIFCU$" or the "Fund") is a common trust fund administered by the Union Bank, N.A. and designed
to serve the liquidity needs of the credit union industry. Investments in NIFCU$ shares are not deposits or obligations of and are not endorsed or
guaranteed by the Union Bank, N.A., or any of its affiliates.
Investments in NIFCU$ shares are not insured or guaranteed by the FDIC, the government, or any other agency. Although the Fund strives to
maintain a stable net asset value of $1 per unit, there is no assurance that this will be achieved and it is possible to lose money by investing in
shares.
shares Only eligible credit unions may invest in shares of NIFCU$ State chartered credit unions should check their state's rules for compliance.
NIFCU$. state s compliance
Please request the NIFCU$ Deed of Trust & Plan of Common Trust Funds booklet and review carefully before investing. Past performance is not
an indication of future results. Current yields may differ from those quoted. For more information about NIFCU$, including current rates, please
see www.nifcus.com or call Toll-Free (800) 634-6521.
HighMark Capital Management, Inc. a registered investment adviser and wholly-owned subsidiary of Union Bank, N.A., serves as the Investment
Adviser and manages NIFCU$ assets. Union Bank, N.A. is the Investment Manager, Trustee and Custodian of NIFCU$.
This publication is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice to any individual.