PMP Muzette Charles_Spring2019_Week3_Chapter7

1. Project Management Professional
PMP® Exam Prep – Week 3
Cost Management
Muzette Charles, PMP | mcharles2@pace.edu

2. Cost Management
Chapter 7
“… includes the processes involved in planning, estimating, budgeting, financing, funding,
managing & controlling costs so that the project can be completed within the approved
budget.”
Process Process Group Key Deliverables
7.1 Plan Cost Management Planning Cost Management Plan
7.2 Estimate Costs Planning Activity cost estimates
7.3 Determine Budget Planning Cost Baseline (budget)
7.4 Control Costs Monitoring & Controlling Change Requests

3. Cost Management
Chapter 7
Plan Cost Management
Process 1
Key Points
 Provides guidance on how costs aka budget, will be managed throughout the project
 Aligns with Schedule baseline estimates, units of measure, level of accuracy (+/- %)
 Funding decisions: existing funds, equity or debt

4. Chapter 7, Topic 1
Units of Measure
• Currency, exchange rates
Level of Precision
• Rounding
Level of Accuracy
• Acceptable estimate ranges, inclusion
of contingency funds
Organizational Procedure Links
• Alignment with WBS control accounts
Control Thresholds
•When alarms will go off
Measurement Rules
•When and how to make what
types of measurements
Record and Report
•What to record, who gets a report,
when and at what level
Cost Management
Chapter 7
Plan Cost Management
Process 1

5. Cost Management
Chapter 7
Estimate Costs
Process 2
Key Points
 Developing the monetary cost each activity needed to complete the project
 Cost estimates are a prediction based on info known at a given point in time & is constantly reviewed
 Expected accuracy: initially ROM -25% to +75% , Budget -10% to +25%, Definitive -5% to +10%
 Usually expressed in currency: dollars, euros, yen, etc

6. Early Planning
Level of Precision
 What level of variance from estimates will trigger the need for further
investigation and possible action?
 Only rough order of magnitude (ROM) has a standard range. The
others are typical of that stage in a project for that organization.
Chapter 7, Topic 2
Rough order of
magnitude
(ROM)
–25% to +75%
Conceptual
–10% to +25%
Definitive
–5% to +10%
Initiating
Final Planning and
into Executing
Cost Management
Chapter 7
Estimate Costs
Process 2

7. In the project charter, costs were estimated at
US$2,000,000. What is the upper threshold to
which costs might extend by the time the
project reaches Executing?
A. US$2,500,000
B. US$3,000,000
C. US$3,500,000
D. US$3,750,000
Discussion Question
Answer: C
The project charter typically uses a ROM, which means the
estimation could increase by up to 75%, or US$3,500,000.
Chapter 7, Topic 2

8. Cost Estimates
Key Output
 Estimate costs by activity.
 Consider all costs:
 Direct expenses
(e.g., labor, materials, services)
 Special costs
(e.g., currency exchange rates)
 Indirect costs
(e.g., space and services provided)
Chapter 7, Topic 2
Cost Management
Chapter 7
Estimate Costs
Process 2

9. Cost Management
Chapter 7
Determine Budget
Process 3
Key Points
 Budget: all the calculated funds authorized to execute the project, includes reserves
 Cost baseline: the approved version of the budget, less Management Reserves, used as a
benchmark for variance analysis to measure project’s success.
 Reserve Analysis: Contingency Reserve & Management Reserve
 Funding Limit Reconciliation: PM is responsible to not exceed funding limits

10. Cost Management
Chapter 7
Determine Budget
Process 3
Cost Aggregation

11. Chapter 7, Topic 2
Activity
Cost
Estimates
Work
Package
Cost
Estimates
Contingency
Reserves for
Activities
General
Contingency
Reserve
Cost
Baseline
(All
Control
Accounts)
Management
Reserve
Project
Budget
+
+
+
=
=
=
Contingency Reserve
Budget within the cost
baseline allocated for
managing identified
risks
Management Reserve
Amount of project budget
withheld by management to
respond to unforeseen needs
Source: Adapted from Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide)—Sixth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2017,
Figure 7-8, Page 255. Material from this publication has been reproduced with the permission of PMI.
Cost Management
Chapter 7
Determine Budget
Process 3

12. Cost Baseline
S-curve chart
provides a time-
phased view of the
cost baseline—how
activities may have to
be reconciled with
funding infusion and
when reserves may
have to be tapped.
Chapter 7, Topic 3
Cumulative
Values
Time
Project Budget
Management
Reserve
Budget at
Completion
(BAC)
Funding
Requirements
Cost
Baseline
Expenditures
Source: Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide)—Sixth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2017,
Figure 7-9, Page 255. Material from this publication has been reproduced with the permission of PMI.
Cost Management
Chapter 7
Determine Budget
Process 3

13. Cost Baseline
Key Points
 The project manager is responsible for controlling spending and releasing
funds within the cost baseline.
 Funds are usually released over time, and funding schedules must be
reconciled with work schedules.
 The cost baseline includes both contingency and reserves and work package
cost estimates.
 It is the benchmark for project cost performance.
 All changes must be made through the integrated change control process.
Chapter 7, Topic 3
Cost Management
Chapter 7
Determine Budget
Process 3

14. During project execution, a contractor defaults.
How will the resulting increases in costs be
funded?
A. Contingency reserves
B. Management reserves
C. Change request to increase cost baseline
Discussion Question
Answer: B
This is probably an unexpected risk, since if there
was serious risk of default, the contractor, in most
cases, wouldn’t have been selected. Management
reserves are earmarked for these unforeseen risks.
Chapter 7, Topic 3

15. Cost Management
Chapter 7
Key Points
 Earned Value Mgmt (EVM):
 Assessing both schedule & cost performance through the concept of earned value; the monetary value of work
actually completed
 Tracks how is your project is performing against the plan
 Variances & forecast future performance, cost & completion date
 Performance Measurement Baseline: integrates cost, time & scope to predict variance, correct & minimize risk
Control Costs
Process 4

16. Match each EVM term with the correct definition.
Discussion Question
Answers: 1—b; 2—a; 3—c
Chapter 7, Topic 4
1. Earned value
2. Planned value
3. Actual cost
a. Authorized budget for
scheduled work
b. Budgeted cost of
completed work to the
reference point
c. Amount of money spent
by the reference point

17. EVM Variances
A variance uses subtraction to compare baseline
and actual performance. The first term is always EV.
Chapter 7, Topic 4
Schedule Variance
How does the work done
compare with the work that was
scheduled to be done?
SV = EV − PV
Cost Variance
How does the amount of work
done compare with the budget
dollars spent?
CV = EV − AC
A positive result is good.
The project is ahead of schedule.
A positive result is good.
The project is under budget.
Control Costs
Process 4
Cost Management
Chapter 7

18. EVM Performance Indices
A performance index is a ratio that uses division.
The numerator is always EV.
Chapter 7, Topic 4
Schedule Performance Index
How well is the project
performing against the schedule?
Cost Performance Index
How is the project performing
against the budget?
Above ONE is good.
(Project is ahead of schedule.)
Above ONE is good.
(Project is under budget.)
SPI =
EV
PV
CPI =
EV
AC
Cost Management
Chapter 7Control Costs
Process 4

19. How much will this project cost us when we’re done?
EAC = Actual Costs (AC) +
Estimate at Completion (EAC)
Chapter 7, Topic 4
Estimated Cost to
Finish All Remaining
Work (ETC)
 An early warning signal that a threshold may be violated
 A tool to determine proactive behavior (e.g., changes in staffing, less
expensive materials)
Control Costs
Process 4
Cost Management
Chapter 7

20. EACNew
 Prior estimates are no
longer reliable.
 Remaining activity
costs are re-estimated
and aggregated.
 Common approach but
time-consuming and
expensive.
Chapter 7, Topic 4
EACNew = AC + Bottom-Up ETC
Example:
US$197K + (US$53K + US$42K +
US$68K) = US$360K
Cost Management
Chapter 7Control Costs
Process 4

21. EACCPI
 CPI is reliable indicator
of future performance.
 If future is likely to
follow past perfor-
mance, this method is
used.
Chapter 7, Topic 4
EACCPI
=
BAC
CPI
Example:
US$325,000/0.85 = US$382,353
Note that the CPI is below 1; the
project is over budget.
For ETC work performed at present CPI (typical variances)
Control Costs
Process 4
Cost Management
Chapter 7

22. EACBAC
 When variances were
due to identifiable events
that are now in the past
(i.e., the increased costs
are in the past).
 When future estimates
are probably accurate.
Chapter 7, Topic 4
EACBAC = AC + (BAC – EV)
Example:
US$197K + (US$325K – US$150K)
= US$197K + US$175K
= US$372K
For ETC work performed at budgeted rate (atypical variances)
Cost Management
Chapter 7Control Costs
Process 4

23. EACCPI * SPI
 CPI is considered accurate.
 There is a milestone or deadline
constraint (e.g., “We have to
finish the project on schedule!
What will it take?”).
Chapter 7, Topic 4
Example:
$197K +
= $197K +
= $197K + $217K = $414K
EACCPI ∗ SPI = AC +
(BAC – EV)
(CPI × SPI)
($325K – $150K)
(.85 × .95)
$175K
.807
Control Costs
Process 4
Cost Management
Chapter 7

24. A bridge must be in operation by a certain date. At
the data date, half of the work has been completed.
 BAC = US$15M
 CPI = .8
 SPI = .7
Calculate EAC.
Discussion Question
Answer:
Use the EACCPI ∗ SPI formula because of the schedule
constraint. EV is US$7.5M (half of scheduled work).
Calculate AC based on CPI formula to determine that
AC is US$9.375M. EAC will be US$22.768M.
Chapter 7, Topic 4

25. Estimate to Complete (ETC)
Once the EAC is known, we can
calculate the estimate to complete
by subtracting the budget already
spent (AC) from the estimated cost
of the project at completion.
Chapter 7, Topic 4
ETC = EAC – AC
Example:
US$22.768M – US$9.375M =
US$13.393M
Cost Management
Chapter 7Control Costs
Process 4

26. Variance at Completion (VAC)
 A projection of the probable
budget deficit or surplus
Chapter 7, Topic 4
VAC = BAC – EAC
Example:
US$15M – US$22.8M = <US$7.8M> BAC
EAC
Control Costs
Process 4
Cost Management
Chapter 7

27. TCPI Scenarios
Budget is achievable.
Use BAC.
Chapter 7, Topic 4
NOTE!
Unlike CPI and SPI, a TCPI above 1 is bad and below 1 is good.
A TCPI above 1 indicates that CPI must improve, which may be hard to achieve.
TCPIBAC =
(BAC – EV)
(BAC – AC)
Budget is clearly not viable.
Use EAC.
TCPIEAC =
(BAC – EV)
(EAC – AC)
Control Costs
Process 4
Cost Management
Chapter 7

28. The BAC is US$10M. EV is US$4M, and AC is
US$5M. What should the project manager do?
A. Take no action. The budget is achievable.
B. Prepare a change request to change the
schedule or cost baseline.
C. Motivate the team to work harder.
D. Add team members.
Discussion Question
Answer: B
Using the TCPIBAC formula, we find that the needed
future CPI is 1.2 (US$6M/US$5M). If we solve for the
historic CPI, we find that it is .8. The CPI is unlikely to
improve to more than .88, so a change request is in order.
Chapter 7, Topic 4

29. Discussion Question
Answer:
The project is behind
schedule (EV less than
PV) and above budget
(AC more than EV).
Chapter 7, Topic 4
Cumulative
Cost
Time
Project Budget
Management
Reserve
BAC
Actual Cost
(AC)
Data Date
Planned Value
(PV)
Earned Value
(EV)
Source: Adapted from Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide)—Sixth Edition, Project Management
Institute, Inc., 2017, Figure 7-12, Page 264. Material from this publication has been reproduced with the permission of PMI.
S-curve charts can be used to
visualize current and forecast
project performance.
What does this S-curve show?

30. S-curve charts can be used to
visualize current and forecast
project performance.
What does this S-curve show?
Discussion Question
Answer:
The project is behind
schedule (EV less than
PV) and above budget
(AC more than EV).
Chapter 7, Topic 4
Source: Adapted from Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide)—Sixth Edition, Project Management
Institute, Inc., 2017, Figure 7-12, Page 264. Material from this publication has been reproduced with the permission of PMI.
Cumulative
Cost
Time
Project Budget
Management
Reserve
BAC
Actual Cost
(AC)
Data Date
EAC
ETC
Planned Value
(PV)
Earned Value
(EV)

31. Cost Management
Chapter 7
Control Costs
Process 4
Project is on Track: .95 < CPI or SPI < 1.10 (Industry Rule)

32. Cost Management
Chapter 7

33. PMP Exam Prep
Group Exercise – PDM Critical Path