ICT role in 21st century education and it's challenges.pdf
Justyna Salamonska - ageing and attitudes
1. Ageing and attitudes
Justyna Salamońska
Migration Policy Centre, EUI
Forum on Migration, Citizenship and Demography: Conference on Demography
4-5 February 2016
108/02/2016 MPC - www.migrationpolicycentre.eu
2. Context and overview
• Europe is ageing
• Immigration seen as one of the solutions to ageing
• Attitudes towards immigration may be affected by
ageing
– Overview of survey data on attitudes by age group
– Determinants of attitudes at micro and macro level
(regressions)
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Projected changes in the structure of
population in the EU by age (EC 2015)
3. General conceptual
framework on attitudes…
• Immigrants as a threat (group threat theory: Blalock 1967;
Blumer 1958; Meuleman et al. 2009; Quillian 1995; Sides and
Citrin 2007)
– Competition over resources (jobs, but also access to services etc.), in particular
among socially and economically vulnerable
– Threat more pronounced in contexts with scarce resources: economic
conditions, size of outgroup.
– Also a threat to collective identity and homogeneity of the society
– Threat: real or perceived
• BUT intergroup contact theory explains how interactions may
reduce negative sentiments (Allport 1954; Schneider 2008)
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4. …and impact of ageing
• Attitudes differ depending on individual and contextual
characteristics:
– Several studies found that older people more likely to hold negative
attitudes (Card et al. 2005; Ceobanu and Escandell 2010)
– Demographic characteristics of the country (Ceobanu and Koropeckyj-
Cox 2013)
– Political-ideological climate (Semyonov et al. 2008)
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5. Evidence
Eurobarometer:
DV1: Immigrants contribute a lot to (OUR
COUNTRY) (totally disagree/tend to disagree)
[EB 81.2, March 2014]
DV2: What do you think are the two most important
issues facing (OUR COUNTRY) at the moment?
Immigration (mentioned)
[EB 83.3, May 2015]
DV3: The arrival of immigrants in Europe can
efficiently solve the problem of Europe's ageing
population (tend to disagree/it depends)
[EB 66.3, November/December 2006]
Micro (individual) level (I)
Macro (country) level (II)
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9. ‘Migrants don’t contribute’
by age group (2014)
Country/age
group Total 18 to 24 25 to 39 40 to 54 55 and older
Greece 0.63 0.60 0.58 0.62 0.68
Italy 0.63 0.57 0.59 0.61 0.70
France 0.52 0.55 0.46 0.45 0.59
Austria 0.56 0.47 0.51 0.55 0.64
Netherlands 0.40 0.42 0.48 0.42 0.32
Belgium 0.57 0.41 0.57 0.52 0.68
Denmark 0.41 0.40 0.37 0.40 0.45
Spain 0.48 0.40 0.41 0.48 0.57
Germany 0.42 0.31 0.42 0.45 0.43
Portugal 0.32 0.27 0.29 0.35 0.34
Luxembourg 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.35 0.23
UK 0.33 0.25 0.35 0.29 0.37
Finland 0.30 0.25 0.23 0.31 0.34
Ireland 0.36 0.21 0.37 0.37 0.41
Sweden 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.09 0.10
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10. Migration as a concern for the
country by age group (2015)
Country/age
group Total 18 to 24 25 to 39 40 to 54 55 and older
Germany 0.47 0.49 0.42 0.50 0.46
Denmark 0.36 0.37 0.26 0.33 0.43
Italy 0.31 0.34 0.27 0.32 0.32
Sweden 0.27 0.33 0.18 0.25 0.33
Netherlands 0.23 0.32 0.27 0.18 0.20
Austria 0.31 0.27 0.25 0.32 0.37
Luxembourg 0.14 0.26 0.10 0.11 0.16
Belgium 0.24 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.26
UK 0.36 0.19 0.29 0.35 0.48
France 0.12 0.12 0.06 0.09 0.18
Finland 0.05 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.05
Greece 0.10 0.06 0.12 0.13 0.09
Spain 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.08 0.05
Ireland 0.07 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.08
Portugal 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.02 0.02
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11. ‘Migration doesn’t solve the ageing
problem’ by age group (2006)
Country/age
group Total 18 to 24 25 to 39 40 to 54 55 and older
Greece 0.74 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.77
France 0.66 0.72 0.65 0.65 0.65
Luxembourg 0.63 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.54
Austria 0.73 0.71 0.70 0.74 0.77
Ireland 0.70 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71
Italy 0.64 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.66
UK 0.74 0.64 0.77 0.73 0.77
Germany 0.68 0.64 0.70 0.69 0.68
Portugal 0.58 0.62 0.54 0.61 0.58
Netherlands 0.63 0.58 0.61 0.67 0.62
Sweden 0.46 0.57 0.38 0.50 0.43
Belgium 0.70 0.57 0.77 0.70 0.70
Finland 0.47 0.44 0.46 0.49 0.48
Denmark 0.52 0.36 0.51 0.53 0.58
Spain 0.39 0.36 0.38 0.33 0.45
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12. Individual level determinants of attitudes
Binomial logistic regression
DV1: Immigrants contribute a lot to (OUR COUNTRY) (totally/tend to disagree)
DV2: What do you think are the two most important issues facing (OUR COUNTRY)
at the moment? Immigration (mentioned)
DV3: The arrival of immigrants in Europe can efficiently solve the problem of
Europe's ageing population (tend to disagree/it depends)
IVs: age, education, occupation, left-right political scale, gender, city dwelling, country
dummies
Hypothesis:
Negative feelings towards immigration and immigrants more likely among older
individuals, political right voters
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13. Binomial logistic
regression models
DV1: Migrants don't contribute to the
country (2014)
DV2: Immigration an important issue for
the country (2015)
DV3: Migrants don't solve ageing
problem (2006)
IVs Coef. Std. Err. P>|z| Coef. Std. Err. P>|z| Coef. Std. Err. P>|z|
Age when education
finished -0.067 0.004 0.000 -0.018 0.004 0.000 -0.030 0.004 0.000
Status
(reference:
at work)
Unemployed 0.282 0.065 0.000 -0.134 0.092 0.146 0.063 0.087 0.469
In education -0.301 0.093 0.001 0.287 0.107 0.007 -0.290 0.090 0.001
Other 0.186 0.053 0.000 -0.120 0.064 0.060 0.009 0.054 0.866
Males -0.021 0.037 0.562 0.019 0.043 0.656 0.020 0.039 0.602
Age -0.002 0.002 0.288 0.009 0.002 0.000 -0.002 0.002 0.250
Position
right-left
scale
(reference:
left and
centre)
Right 0.689 0.061 0.000 0.368 0.068 0.000 0.291 0.062 0.000
Undefined 0.440 0.055 0.000 0.011 0.071 0.876 0.345 0.057 0.000
City dwellers (reference:
others) -0.221 0.043 0.000 -0.118 0.051 0.020 -0.191 0.044 0.000
Country
dummies (not shown)
Constant 1.318 0.133 0.000 -1.929 0.155 0.000 1.279 0.129 0.000
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14. Binomial logistic
regression models
IVs
DVs
DV1:
Migrants
don't
contribut
e to the
country
(2014)
DV2:
Immigrati
on an
important
issue for
the
country
(2015)
DV3:
Migrants
don't
solve
ageing
problem
(2006)
Age +
Position right-left scale
(reference: left and centre)
Right + + +
Undefined + +
Age when education finished - - -
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16. Individual and country level
determinants of attitudes
DV3: The arrival of immigrants in Europe can efficiently solve the problem of
Europe’s ageing population (tend to disagree/it depends)
Micro IVs: concern about pensions, elderly care, left-right political scale
positioning, age, education, occupation, left-right political scale, gender, city
dwelling, country dummies
Macro IVs: GDP, unemployment, share of foreign born, share of aged 65+
Hypotheses:
A. Negative feelings towards immigration more likely among older persons,
political right voters and not concerned with pensions and elderly care
B. Negative perception of immigration in countries where population ageing
less pronounced (share of aged 65+)
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17. Binary logistic regression, DV3: ‘Migration
doesn’t solve the ageing problem’
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Model 1 (micro) Model 2 (macro)
IVs Coef. Std. Err. P>|z| Coef. Std. Err. P>|z|
Age when education finished -0.029 0.003 0.000 -0.029 0.003 0.000
Status (reference: at work) Unemployed 0.079 0.067 0.242 0.081 0.067 0.230
In education -0.211 0.071 0.003 -0.212 0.071 0.003
Other 0.046 0.044 0.287 0.048 0.044 0.273
Pensions important issue 0.013 0.032 0.689 0.015 0.032 0.637
Elderly care important issue -0.177 0.038 0.000 -0.178 0.038 0.000
Males 0.001 0.031 0.968 0.002 0.031 0.961
Age 0.001 0.001 0.444 0.001 0.001 0.457
Position right-left scale (reference:
left and centre)
Right 0.216 0.047 0.000 0.215 0.047 0.000
Undefined 0.271 0.042 0.000 0.270 0.042 0.000
City dwellers (reference: others) -0.163 0.035 0.000 -0.161 0.035 0.000
Country dummies (not shown)
GDPpc -0.029 0.007 0.000
Unemployment -0.067 0.039 0.083
Share of foreign citizens 1.481 1.245 0.234
Share aged 65+ -4.230 3.888 0.277
Constant 1.148 0.116 0.000 3.019 0.720 0.000
18. Binary logistic regression, DV3: ‘Migration
doesn’t solve the ageing problem’
IVs
DVs
Model 1 (micro) Model 2 (macro)
Individual level
Age
Pensions important issue
Elderly care important issue - -
Position right-left scale
(reference: left and centre)
Right + +
Undefined + +
Age when education finished
- -
Country level
GDPpc -
Share aged 65+
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19. Conclusions
• Large between country variation in attitudes
• Views on immigration shifted with now majority perceiving
immigrants as contributing to their countries; however
migration is also a source of concern
• Conventional assumption of older people being more negative
towards immigration needs to be problematised
• Lack of longitudinal data to examine the individual level
effects
• Further developments: interactions between age and political
right vote, voting outcome at the country level
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