Mekong ARCC presented in Hanoi, Vietnam at the 2nd Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change sponsored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam, the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation of the Netherlands, FAO, and The World Bank. The presentation, entitled "Climate Impacts in the Lower Mekong: Implications for the Private Sector," was given as part of the larger session on the Role of the Private Sector in Climate Smart Agriculture. Utilizing data collected for the Mekong ARCC's Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study, the presentation showed how changes in temperature and rainfall by 2030 will push the boundaries of crops climate tolerance and land suitability in the transboundary Sesan River basin for key agricultural inputs such as cassava, coffee, rice and rubber. These climate shifts will have significant impacts on the ability of natural resource and commodity dependant companies to meet production targets. The presentation broadly demonstrated that the projections the Mekong ARCC Climate Study is generating can be critical inputs for private sector strategic planning and future regional investments. Conference organizers intend to link the results from the workshop to a variety of international processes, in particular to the Rio +20 follow-up process and partnerships, the work of the Committee on World Food Security (CFS), as well as the ongoing climate change negotiations under the UNFCCC.

1. Mekong ARCC Climate Change
Impact and Adaptation Study for
natural and agricultural systems
Jeremy Carew-Reid,
ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management
www.icem.com.au
September 2012 Hanoi 1a

2. Assessing climate change threats to agriculture and
subsistence livelihoods
Climate
changes
Hydrological
changes
Agricultural Ecological
zones zones
Species “zones”
Commercial Subsistence Aqua- Traditional Live- Crop wild NTFPs Wild fish Wildlife
crops crops culture crops stock relatives catch
ICEM, 2012 Adaptation options 2

3. Agro-ecological systems and climate change vulnerability continuum
ICEM, 2012
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4. Transition from subsistence to
commercial agriculture
Industrialization, rural-urban migration
Small
holdings
Commercial
Labour Increased
intensive
Land
consolidation
capital farms and
intensity plantations
Low
capital
intensity
Subsistence Intermediate Commercial
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5. Climate change shifts
Regular climate
1. Geographic shifts – change in area of suitability
2. Elevation shifts (for highly restricted habitats and
species) – change in (i) location and (ii) elevation
3. Seasonal shifts – change in (i) yields, (ii) cropping
patterns
Extreme events
4. Extreme event shifts
 Micro – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands
 Macro – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall
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6. Geographic shift Shift in zone of suitability
for habitat and crops
Original extent of
natural habitat
Paddy rice
and
commercial
crops
Remaining
natural habitat Subsistence crops and NTF
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pockets collection
ICEM, 2012

7. Identifying climate change “hot spots” – i.e. highly
vulnerable areas
• High exposure:
 significant climate change relative to base conditions
 exposure to new climate/hydrological conditions
• High sensitivity:
 limited temperature and moisture tolerance range
 degraded and/or under acute pressure
 severely restricted geographic range
 rare or threatened
• Low adaptive capacity
 Poor connectivity
 Low diversity and tolerances
 Homogenous systems 7

8. Climate change
hot spot -
rainfall
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9. Climate change
hot spot -
Temperature
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10. Industrial and
commercial
crops and
climate change
hotspots

11. Lowland rice
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12. upland rice
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13. rubber
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14. Coffee (coffea canephora)
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15. cassava
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16. Maize
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17. 17

18. 18

19. Sensitivity assessments:
climate tolerances
Optimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximum temperature

20. Sensitivity assessments:
climate tolerances
Optimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation

21. Trends in commercial crops with
climate change
• Rubber: Projected increases in temperature and precipitation
would open upland areas for rubber cultivation.
• Coffee plantations would suffer from changes in rainfall patterns
and/or excess rainfall in the highland areas (especially Arabica).
• Cassava: Relatively resistant to drought so would become a
substitute in rain fed agricultural systems in drier areas BUT
would have reduced suitability in high rainfall areas.
• Sweet potato and key root crops not well suited to higher
rainfall and soil moisture conditions and higher temperatures
• Soybean would suffer from higher temperatures - shift to higher
elevation may be required.
• Bananas and mangoes: increases in temperature and
precipitation would open upland areas for cultivation
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22. Rice
Rice cultivation and extreme flooding
• Extreme floods will be more common in rice based
production systems in Lowland Cambodia and the
Mekong Delta.
• Flood would have a larger impact where agriculture is
intensified, with high yielding rice varieties less
resilient to flood than traditional ones.
• Investment in intensive rice cultivation will become
more risky
• Other commercial crops such as fruit and vegetables
are less resilient to flood than rice.
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23. Rice
Rice cultivation and sea level rise
• A 30 cm rise by 2050 with increased flood extent,
depth and duration will result in a loss of 193,000 ha
of rice area in the Mekong Delta.
• Agriculture will be severely constrained by increased
saline intrusion in the dry season and longer flood in
the rainy season.
• The double and triple cropping system commonly
used in the Mekong Delta might not be possible.
• Climate change will change the occurrence of plant
disease and pests such as fungus and moulds,
viruses, nematodes and a range of insects.
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24. Thank you
Jeremy Carew-Reid,
ICEM – International Centre for Environmental
Management
www.icem.com.au
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