cushman & wakefield the economy cre and investment ideas -

Kevin J. Thorpe, Chief Economist
March 2016
The U.S. Economy, CRE Outlook
and 2016 Investment Ideas

The U.S. Economy &
CRE Outlook

© Copyright 2016 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved.
Tumultuous Start to 2016
DJIA and CBOE Indicators
The DOW has plunged
10% to start the year and
the CBOE volatility index,
a solid measure of
investor angst, had
essentially doubled.
10
14
18
22
26
30
CBOE VIX
15,500
16,000
16,500
17,000
17,500
18,000
18,500
DJIA
Source: CBOE, SIX Financial Information
Dow Jones Plunge
CBOE Volatility Jumps

Stock Market Corrections – Don’t Tell Us Much
S&P 500 Movements vs. Recessions (1990-present)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
-20%*
-9%
-20%*
-9% -10%
-19%
-49%
-57%
-16%
-19%
-10%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-6%
-7%
-12%
-9%
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cushman & Wakefield Research
Lots of corrections,
few recessions
Only 5 of 39 stock
market corrections
since 1950 have signaled
a U.S. recession. In the
current cycle, demand for
CRE has remained strong
through 10 corrections.
However, a continued
downturn could drag down
consumer spending, labor
markets, and eventually
demand for CRE.

Tumultuous Start to 2016
Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert
CMBS Spreads Widen
CMBS Issuance Slows
80
100
120
140
160
10-Year AAA Swap
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
D J 2015 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2016 F
CMBS Issuance, $bil.
As Wall Street
anxiety seeps into CRE,
should investors monetize
core assets? Shift real
estate portfolios away
from risky assets and
refocus on core? Or
just wait to see if it
blows over?

What Caused the Volatility?
China
Source: Yahoo Finance, Cushman & Wakefield Research
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
Shanghai Composite Index
Aug 11th - surprise
devaluation of the yuan  Economic links between China
and U.S. highly overstated
 China’s GDP is still growing at
6-7%
 China’s service sector is strong
 China has tremendous fiscal
resources
BUT
China’s Equity Plunge
Jan 2 – stock selling
ban uncertainty
China’s equity plunge
caused anxiety despite its
strong fiscal resources and
weak correlation with the
U.S. economy.

The U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve, Cushman & Wakefield Research
 It’s a function of a
strengthening economy
 Puts downward pressure on oil
and commodity prices
 A stronger U.S. dollar has never
caused a recession
 Makes foreign goods cheaper
for U.S. consumers
BUT
Strengthening U.S. Dollar
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
U.S. Dollar Broad Index
A strengthening U.S.
dollar has never caused a
recession but puts
downward pressure on
commodity prices and
hurts U.S. manufacturing.

Oil
Source: Moody’s Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Research
 Cheap gas is a tax break for
consumers
 Lowers business costs
 Low oil is consistent with strong
periods of U.S. GDP growth
 Most CRE markets will benefit
via multiplier effect
BUT
Plunge in Oil
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
Baseline
Stronger Growth Scenario
Low Oil Price Scenario
Brent Crude
The plunge in oil prices
is causing discomfort,
yet is favorable for lower
costs for consumers
and businesses.

Deflation is Still a Threat
Consumer Price Index, % Change
Source: Oxford Economics, Cushman & Wakefield Research
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2013 2014 2015
Germany Asia Spain
Denmark Italy Eurozone
Sweden
Why should U.S.
investors be concerned
about deflation outside of
the U.S.?
If prices fall, that will in
turn shrink business
profits, which leads to job
losses, which leads to
further price cuts, then
even more job losses.
Prices Fall
Profits
Shrink
Job Loss
Prices Fall
Further
Profits
Shrink
Job Loss
Deflation by Country Potential Downward Spiral

Combatting the Threat with Negative Interest Rates
Goal: Boost Economic Growth and Inflation
Source: Oxford Economics, Cushman & Wakefield Research
Central Bank Rates
Negative of the Negative
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3
2016Q1
Eurozone
Japan
Denmark
Switzerland
Sweden
 Looks panicky
 Eats away at bank profits
 Could create currency wars
 Consumers will hoard cash
Negative interest rates
combat deflation, but will
the strategy work? It’s a
wait-and-see, as it’s never
been done before.

Driving Even More Foreign Capital to the U.S.
Source: Federal Reserve, Cushman & Wakefield Research
M2 Money Supply
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield
11000
11500
12000
12500
Jan2014
Feb2014
Mar2014
Apr2014
May2014
Jun2014
Jul2014
Aug2014
Sep2014
Oct2014
Nov2014
Dec2014
Jan2015
Feb2015
Mar2015
Apr2015
May2015
Jun2015
Jul2015
Aug2015
Sep2015
Oct2015
Nov2015
Dec2015
Jan2016
M2 Money Supply, $bil.
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
10/23/15
11/6/15
11/20/15
12/4/15
12/18/15
1/1/16
1/15/16
1/29/16
2/12/16
2/26/16
10-Yr Treasury Yield Adopts Negative Rate Policy
Europe
Japan
It is clear that the
negative interest rate
policy is driving even
more capital to the
United States.

Global Private Capital Fundraising for CRE
Source: Preqin, Cushman & Wakefield Research Forecast
706
600
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016F
Aggregate Capital Raised, $Bill.
Recent strong
fundraising for CRE is
due, in part, to volatility
in other asset classes
such as oil, commodities,
and stocks causing
capital to be rechanneled
to real estate.

U.S. Job Growth Is Booming
Strongest Job Growth Years Since 1990
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1994 1998 1997 1999 1995 2014 2000 1989 2015 1996
Job Growth, Mill.
1st
6th 9th
Full potential of job
growth has not been felt
because productivity is
weaker than normal;
underemployment is still
elevated; labor force
participation has been
weak; wage growth has
been weak.
From a CRE
perspective, no single
factor is more
important than job
creation – and that
remains very healthy.

127
129
131
133
135
137
139
141
143
145
Nov2000
Jul2002
Mar2004
Nov2005
Jul2007
Mar2009
Nov2010
Jul2012
Mar2014
Nov2015
Total Nonfarm, mils
U.S. Employment Growth
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Change (000’s):
Job losses peak to trough: 8,716,000
Job gains in recovery: 13,251,000 Total
Nonfarm
Office -
Using
Dec 2014 292 77
Jan 2015 221 31
Feb 2015 265 52
Mar 2015 84 36
Apr 2015 251 86
May 2015 273 91
Jun 2015 228 99
Jul 2015 277 71
Aug 2015 150 45
Sep 2015 149 56
Oct 2015 295 107
Nov 2015 280 48
Dec 2015 271 78
Jan 2016 172 35
Feb 2016 242 41
Job growth surged in
February and job
openings remain at
record levels indicating
businesses still want to
hire aggressively.

Investors are Drawn to the Jobs
Major Markets: Top 25 Job-Producing Cities in 2015
Source: BLS, Oxford Economics, RCA, Cushman & Wakefield Research
Job losses peak to trough: 8,716,000
Job gains in recovery: 13,251,000
Rank in Job
Growth
Rank in Sale
Volume
Market Job Growth 000's
1 240 New Delhi 204.4
2 1 New York 144.7
3 3 Los Angeles 139.4
4 2 London 122.6
5 11 Dallas 113.2
6 324 Tianjin 106.2
7 47 Beijing 106.1
8 45 Singapore 82
9 13 Atlanta 84.4
10 5 San Francisco 71.4
11 10 Miami 67.8
12 4 Hong Kong 65.1
13 23 Melbourne 60.5
14 15 Seattle 62.6
15 6 DC Metro 60.6
16 19 Houston 57.6
17 8 Chicago 55.4
18 28 Madrid 53.8
19 14 San Jose 53.4
20 20 Phoenix 51.3
21 9 Boston 51.3
22 17 Sydney 48.4
23 N/A Riverside 48.2
24 30 Orlando 44.2
25 21 San Diego 40.6
These 16 U.S. cities
accounted for $286 billion
in transactions last year,
representing 1/3 of
global sales activity.

Corporate Profits Signaling a Recession?
Yr/Yr % Change
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research
33% of Global
Sales Activity
Occurs in these
U.S. Cities
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
1949Q1
1953Q4
1958Q3
1963Q2
1968Q1
1972Q4
1977Q3
1982Q2
1987Q1
1991Q4
1996Q3
2001Q2
2006Q1
2010Q4
2015Q3
Recession Corporate Profits
Corporate profits were
down 5% in Q3, which is
a serious concern.
?

Probably Not
Corporate Profits by Sector (Yr/Yr % Change, Q3 2015 vs Q3 2014)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research
33% of Global
Sales Activity
Occurs in these
U.S. Cities
-43.0%
-15.0%
-12.8%
-3.2%
-1.1%
2.0%
2.5%
9.5%
12.6%
14.5%
16.3%
17.4%
17.8%
18.5%
19.1%
19.9%
23.9%
34.8%
42.5%
86.7%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Utilities
Machinery
Petroleum & Coal
Other Nonfinancial
Wholesale Trade
Other Durable Goods
Financial
Fabricated Metal
Non-Durable
Retail
Manufacturing
Electrical Equip & Components
Other Non-Durable Goods
Food & Beverage
Information
Durable Goods
Chemical Products
Transport & Warehousing
Computer & Electronics
Motor Vehicles & Parts
Only 3.5% of total domestic profits
6.6% of total domestic
16% of total domestic profits
Outside of energy, most
businesses and sectors in
the U.S. economy are
growing. It is projected
that corporate profits in
non-energy sectors grew
by 3% in Q4 2015.

U.S. Macro Forecast
Updated February 26, 2016
Source: Various, Cushman & Wakefield Research Forecasts
33% of Global
Sales Activity
Occurs in these
U.S. Cities
>> Click here for full analysis from our latest U.S. Macro Report
2015 2016 Annual
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 2016 2017
U.S. Economy
Real GDP, % 3.9 2.0 1.0 1.1 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.4 2.8
Nonfarm Employment, 000 610 623 720 726 763 636 520 2,890 2,645 2,329
Office-using Employment, 000 219 192 210 198 195 136 184 827 713 666
Unemployment Rate, % 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.3 4.8 4.9
Retail Sales & Food Services, % 6.8 4.5 0.8 6.1 5.7 4.7 3.6 2.1 4.8 4.4
CPI Inflation, % 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.8 1.4 2.2 2.1 0.2 1.6 2.1
CCI 96 98 96 99 104 102 103 98 102 104
Fed Funds Rate, % 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.6 1.6
10-year Gov't Bond, % 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.9
ISM Manufacturing Index 52.6 51.3 49.7 47.6 48.1 50.0 51.0 51.6 49.2 54.3
West Texas Intermediate, $/bbl 58 47 42 36 38 42 49 49 41 57
Office Sector
Net Absorption, msf 22.7 20.8 21.3 20.7 23.2 21.7 20.9 81.8 86.5 77.4
Vacancy 14.4% 14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 13.5% 13.1% 13.1% 14.2% 13.4% 13.0%
Asking Rents $27.45 $27.91 $28.28 $28.46 $28.60 $29.00 $29.26 $27.72 $28.83 $30.13
Industrial Sector
Vacancy 7.7% 7.5% 7.2% 7.0% 6.9% 7.0% 7.0% 7.5% 7.0% 7.1%
Asking Rents $5.35 $5.37 $5.45 $5.50 $5.59 $5.64 $5.74 $5.36 $5.62 $5.99
Retail Sector*
Vacancy 7.8% 7.6% 7.5% 7.3% 7.2% 7.0% 6.9% 7.7% 7.1% 7.3%
Asking Rents $23.14 $23.10 $23.24 $23.40 $23.34 $23.75 $23.85 $22.92 $23.59 $24.06

Buy Government Towns
Worst of Fiscal Drag is Over
With history as a
guide, when tax
revenues are coming in,
the government finds a
way to spend them.
Source: Congressional Budget Office, OMB
Federal Deficit Has Stabilized
Deficit spending as % of GDP
Federal Spending Will Grow
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
CBO - Forecast OMB - Forecast Moody's - Forecast
-4%
1%
6%
11%
16%
21%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
2018e
2019e
2020e
Federal Outlays YOY Growth
Average

2014 2015 Trend
DC Metro 19.3 60.6
NoVa 1.0 25.3
Baltimore 12.4 28.0
Buy Government Towns
Source: Consolidated Report on Federal Funds, BLS, Cushman & Wakefield Research
Highest Fed Spend Major Markets
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
U.S.
Baltimore
Northern VA
DC Metro
Fed Spending as % GDP
Job Growth Momentum, 000’s
Cap Rate Spread vs. Peers
DC 5.8%
New York 4.4%
Spread 140 bps
Baltimore 7.0%
Oakland 6.3%
Spread 70 bps
When federal spending
increased last year, job
growth in the DC, Northern
Virginia and Baltimore
markets began to soar.

Buy Sunbelt Markets
Job Growth Booms in Sunbelt
Top 30 Job-Producing Markets Top 25 Office Absorption Markets 2015
Rank City 2015 (000s)
1 New York 144.8
2 Los Angeles 139.4
3 Dallas 113.2
4 Atlanta 84.4
5 San Francisco 71.4
6 Miami 67.8
7 Seattle 62.6
8 DC Metro 60.6
9 Houston 57.5
10 Chicago 55.4
11 San Jose 53.9
12 Phoenix 51.4
13 Boston 51.3
14 Riverside 48.2
15 Orlando 44.2
16 Detroit 44.0
17 San Diego 40.7
18 Denver 38.3
19 Charlotte 37.1
20 Portland, OR 34.7
21 Minneapolis 34.5
22 Tampa 33.7
23 Philadelphia 33.5
24 San Antonio 33.1
25 Austin 30.0
26 Indianapolis 28.6
27 Baltimore 28.0
28 Nashville 26.2
29 Las Vegas 25.5
30 Salt Lake City 23.4
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Seattle
Austin
Nashville
SanJose
Raleigh/Durham
NewHaven,CT
Orlando
ColoradoSprings
EastBay
Phoenix
SanMateo,CA
FortMyers,FL
Tampa
SaltLakeCity
SanFrancisco
Cincinnati
Jacksonville
Miami
Dallas
Columbus
Atlanta
LosAngeles
Memphis
Denver
St.Petersburg,FL
Net Absorption as % of Inv.
The sunbelt region has
dominated in nearly every
relevant economic growth
metric for the past 30 years.
Source: BLS; Cushman & Wakefield Research

Sell Core to Aggressive
Foreign Capital
#7

Sell Core to Aggressive Foreign Capital
Source AFIRE, Cushman & Wakefield Research
% of Foreign Capital in 2015
10%
12%
17%
18%
22%
23%
28%
31%
39%
53%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Chicago
Los Angeles
DC VA burbs
Atlanta
Houston
Seattle
Boston
San Francisco
Manhattan
DC
Foreign investors are
attracted to trophy office
space in gateway cities
and have been paying a
premium for it.
AFIRE’s Top U.S. Targets
1. New York
2. Los Angeles
3. San Francisco
4. Washington, DC
5. Boston and Seattle

Waves of Innovation
Source:The Kondratiev Cycles
33% of Global
Sales Activity
Occurs in these
U.S. Cities
The Kondratiev Cycles | Long-term Technology & Growth Cycles
1785 1845 2020199019501900
Innovation
Iron
Water power
Mechanization
Textiles
Commerce
Steam power
Railroad
Steel
Cotton
Electricity
Chemicals
Combustion
engine
Petrochemicals
Electronics
Aviation
Space
Digital networks
Biotechnology
Software IT
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
Hydraulic fracking
3D printing
Mobile tech
Social media
Data mining
Cloud computing
Bioscience
Green chemistry
The tech boom is not just
a hot trend; although the
trajectory will bend at
times, the current wave
of innovation will drive
economic growth for
many years.

Tech Hubs and Office Rent Growth
Percent of Jobs in Technology Industries & Change in Rent Since 2010
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
U.S.
6.5%
Seattle
10.7%
Portland
11.9%
San Francisco
110.8%
San Jose
36.2%
Denver/Boulder
19.0%
Austin
30.6%
Washington, DC
6.1%
New York
53.0%
Boston
18.2%
9.9%
8.2%
9.6%
8.8%
12%
26.5%
10.6%
8.7%
7.6%
4.7% Technology sectors
share of workforce
Change in rent
since 2010
Core tech markets are hot
and engines remain strong,
but are bumping up against
labor shortages and housing
affordability issues.

Buy Secondary Tech Markets
Salt Lake City, UT
High tech employment has risen by 25%
since 2010. Housing very affordable.
Oakland, CA
12 miles from tech hub SF/San Jose;
office vacancy of 12% vs. 5.7% in SF.
Rents 64% cheaper.
Los Angeles - Downtown
West LA vacancy is 11.6%; rest of
LA 15-20% vacant, $20 rent delta
suggests demand will spread.
Northern VA
Proximity to DC, highly educated,
elevated office vacancy of 20% due to
gov’t spending cuts; lots of trained
gov’t contractors looking for work.
Atlanta, GA
Midtown drawing tech firms from suburban
locations. 66% of residents are Gen Y or
Gen Z. 90% success rate for tech firms.
Chicago, IL
Tech-related hiring exploding downtown/River North.
Huge talent pool and concentration of service sectors.
Expanding footprint while finance/law are downsizing.
Known for tech incubators.
Minneapolis, MN
Hottest in periphery of Minneapolis core —
central locations, but not typical class A office
space. Warehouse District (the main tech
center) and near-downtown locations are
drawing demand.
Phoenix, AZ
Low cost of living, doing business (rents, home prices).
Some major firms already are shifting back-end office
here due to cost advantage. South Scottsdale and
Tempe North markets attracting tenants despite high
rents due to “Live/Work/Play” atmosphere.
Raleigh-Durham, NC
Downtown Durham is being revitalized as old
tobacco warehouses are turning mixed-use.
Despite highest rents, continues to draw
demand from tech tenants. Similar story for
Raleigh’s Downtown.
Midtown Manhattan
Tech firms (TAMI), not Wall Street,
are gobbling up space in Midtown
South where vacancy is now 6.6%.
Tech will roll into Downtown/Financial
District where vacancy 2x higher &
rents $15 cheaper.

Monetary Policy Divergence
The Fed vs. ECB
Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Moody’s Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED; ECB)
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
2016Q1
2017Q1
Trillions
While the Fed tightens
policy in the U.S., the ECB
launches a massive
monetary stimulus program
in Europe. If it worked in
the U.S. might it also work
in Europe?

Office Rent Growth: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not
Prime Rents: % Change Q3 2015/Q3 2014
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
HOT
NOT
Leasing fundamentals in
Dublin and London are
hot, but as quantitative
easing trickles into the
broader economy,
expect to see significant
run-up in values
throughout Europe.

Follow the Supply Chain
The “sweet spots” are
areas between population
centers, railroads and
the interstate highways
which have a geographical
advantage to get products
to large population centers.
KEY
Sweet Spots
Intermodal, Inland Ports,
and Inland Population Centers

Follow the Supply Chain
70% of all U.S. industrial
absorption occurred in
these markets in 2015.

Buy Infill Warehouse
2015 Change in Rents by Type (Yr/Yr, % Change)
4.3%
3.6%
8.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
All Industrial Distribution/E-commerce Infill Warehouse
Source: CoStar, Cushman & Wakefield Research
Infill warehouse rent
increases in 2015 were
double those of other
industrial categories.

Buy Class A Neighborhood
Shopping Centers
#3

Buy Class A Neighborhood Shopping Centers
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Research
Retail Cap Rates By Product Type More Upside in
Secondary Markets
Boston Chicago LA Miami
New
York
Philadelphia
San
Francisco
DC
Regional
Mall
(All Classes)
6.1% 7.3% 6.3% 6.0% 6.0% 6.4% 6.1% 6.3%
Regional
Mall
(Class A)
4.7% 5.1% 4.3% 4.6% 4.0% 4.6% 4.0% 4.4%
Shopping
Centers
(Class A)
6.9% 7.5% 6.6% 7.0% 6.0% 7.0% 5.9% 6.7%
Urban Retail
(All Classes)
5.4% 6.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.2% 5.8% 5.1% 5.3%
Urban Retail
(Class A)
4.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.5% 4.0% 4.5% 4.0% 4.6%
Market
Cap Rate
(2015)
Nashville 7.5%
Minneapolis 7.4%
Charlotte 7.4%
Atlanta 6.9%
Dallas 6.8%
Baltimore 6.4%
Philadelphia 6.3%
There is room for cap
rate compression in
class A neighborhood
shopping centers.

Build/Buy Multifamily
in Non-Gateways
#2

Multifamily Markets with Lower Vacancy than U.S. Average
As of Q4 2015
67% of the
U.S. has
vacancy
below 5%
The apartment sector is
booming across the
country. You don’t have to
play in the major metros to
do well in multifamily.
Source: REIS
Rank Vacancy < 3%
1 New Haven
2 Central New Jersey
3 Sacramento
4 Rochester
5 Syracuse
6 Detroit
7 Oakland-East Bay
8 Buffalo
9 San Bernardino/Riverside
10 San Diego
11 Tacoma
Vacancy < 5%
33 Omaha
34 San Francisco
35 Suburban Maryland
36 Wichita
37 Knoxville
38 Miami
39 St. Louis
40 Fort Worth
41 Northern New Jersey
42 Salt Lake City
43 Tampa-St. Petersburg
44 Richmond
45 U.S. Average = 4.4%
46 Fort Lauderdale
47 Charlotte
48 Greenville
49 Kansas City
50 Suburban Virginia
51 Phoenix
52 Tucson
53 Las Vegas
Vacancy < 4%
12 Orange County
13 Providence
14 Ventura County
15 New York
16 Cincinnati
17 Westchester
18 Cleveland
19 Long Island
20 Los Angeles
21 Philadelphia
22 Hartford
23 Albuquerque
24 Baltimore
25 Dayton
26 Chicago
27 Colorado Springs
28 Milwaukee
29 Pittsburgh
30 Lexington
31 Minneapolis
32 San Jose

Don’t Bet Against
the Cycle Quite Yet
#1

Don’t Bet Against the Cycle
This may be the longest
expansion in the history
of United States.
Probability Expansion Continues A Few Points to Keep in Mind:
84%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
 Leading indicators still okay
 U.S. financial system is sound
 Tailwinds still exist: M2 money
supply surge, low interest rates and
low oil
 Central banks are still stimulating
Source: Moody’s

cushman & wakefield the economy cre and investment ideas -

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