Presentation to launch the London Residential Research report Student Accommodation 2013. The report itself is available to download and has a range of interactive graphs and tables.
4. These are the various rates at which
applications submitted
permissions granted
constructionstarted
each year
up to and including H1 2013
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
6. ...this is how that pipeline
looked like pre 2007
pre-Lehman
not particularly impressive
not particularly active
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Application Permission Starts
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
7. But, in the dark days
that were to follow,
student
housing
saved the
day...
This is what saving the day looks like...
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Application Permission Starts
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
12. 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Application Permission Starts
and from 2009 to
2012 an almost exact
correlation between
permission
rates and construction
starts
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
13. 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Application Permission Starts
With permissions
being almost
immediately
converted to
construction starts.
A dynamic state of affairs
but...
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
15. Nigel Evans - team leader
Inner & Outer
BoroughsDOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
16. far more activity in the inner
boroughs,
more applications
more permissions
more starts
with near flat-line
conditions in the outer
boroughs.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Application Permission Starts
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Application Permission Starts
INNER BOROUGHS
OUTER BOROUGHS
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
17. requires closer inspection –
when data lines cross
as in the inner boroughs
(application and permission rates down
but a surge in construction starts)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Application Permission Starts
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Application Permission Starts
INNER BOROUGHS
OUTER BOROUGHS
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
18. or they spike
as in the outer boroughs
(going from 323 units in 2010 to 7,810 units
submitted in 2012)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Application Permission Starts
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Application Permission Starts
INNER BOROUGHS
OUTER BOROUGHS
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
19. something of
significance
is almost always behind it
(Let’s take a detailed look starting
with the inner boroughs)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Application Permission Starts
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Application Permission Starts
INNER BOROUGHS
OUTER BOROUGHS
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
20. Nigel Evans - team leader
Inner Boroughs
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
21. The recent spurtin construction
starts, we estimate it could top
the 6,900 unit mark in the
inner boroughs by year end (estimated by
doubling H1 2013 figures), points not only
to confidence
in the sector but also of
demand.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Starts
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
22. However, in such a scenario we
would expect the
application
pipeline to show a
corresponding
increase as well
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 End
2013*
Starts
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
23. But
in the case of student housing this is
simply not the case
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
30. the entire stock of
potential student housing
in the inner boroughs could be
exhausted
by the end of
2014
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
31. ironically
very forces
driving the student housing
since 2007 now
risk slowing it down,
albeit inadvertently.
Let’s take a closer look at those forces...
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
32. Nigel Evans - team leader
LOREMA Recap
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
33. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
OuterLondon construction starts 2004-2011 private units
Inner London construction starts 2004-2011 private units
End 2011:
starts:
Inner borough up
7%.
starts:
Outerup
53%
*Private residential
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
34. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Outer London construction starts 2004-2012 private units
Inner London construction starts 2004-2012 private units
End 2012
Starts:
Inner up
42%
Outer
down
21%
*Private residential
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
35. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
OuterLondon construction starts 2004-2011 private units
Inner London construction starts 2004-2011 private units
End 2011:
Starts:
Inner borough up
7%.
Starts:
Outerup
53%
*Private residential
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
36. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Outer London construction starts 2004-2012 private units
Inner London construction starts 2004-2012 private units
End 2012
Starts:
Inner up
42%
Outer
down
21%
*Private residential
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
37. The reversal of fortune due to
•scarcity of mortgage availability
•abundance of foreign equity
During 2011 equity was chasing super-prime existing
stock.
It seems now that that stock is slowly being exhausted
and to cater for the continuing demand developers are
building again and they are building
prime.
We could just have carried on here and said...
*Private residential
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
38. The reversal of fortune due to
•scarcity of mortgage availability
•abundance of foreign equity
During 2011 equity was chasing super-prime existing
stock.
It seems now that that stock is slowly being exhausted
and to cater for the continuing demand developers are
building again and they are building
prime. Housing...)
*Private residential
DOWNLOAD REPORT HERE
49. But could it be that the
very factors discouraging the
developmentof student accommodation in the
inner boroughs could
fuel it in the
outerboroughs?
Let’s take a look at those factors
62. Imperial College’s Imperial West
BBC site Wood Lane
“lock, stock and barrel”
600+ student units(already)
plans for a research & commercial facilities to come
a complete purpose built self-contained entity
SYNERGY
67. £psf values across the capital
investor activity
expandingfrom the
super-prime core to the
prime fringe
68. £psf values across the capital
If demand increases
to such an extent that
investors venture
in numbers beyondthat
boundaryinto
traditional owner-occupier
territory ...
69. £psf values across the capital
could lead to increased
demand for rented stock which
in turn could push
prices upwards
in the private
rented sector.
70. in the outer boroughs
bespoke student housingcould become
an increasingly attractive option
for the domestic student.
71. Why live in a shared house when you can have
free
wifi
gym facilities
concierge
laundry service
Security
for the same price?
85. The start of this presentation same each year
180,000 applications, 6,000 site visits, 20,000 schemes on
the database etc... Of those 20,000 schemes some
3,000are either lapsed, withdrawn or refused,
But, if this digital edition is about anything it’s about
visualisation
Let’s not say how vastthe database is
let’s visualise it
This is what 3,000 schemes looks like
86.
87. Policy 3.8 of the London Plan seeks to ensure that
strategic local requirements for student housing are
addressed, without compromising capacity to meet the
need for conventional dwellings, especially affordable
family homes.
88.
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
94.
95. A lucky dip
All these sites have at one point been
in the planning system,
each site was once thought to have
development potential,
each one
could have again