Incrementum: "Preview Chartbook of the In Gold We Trust Report 2020." by Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark J. Valek March 2020.

1. 1
Preview Chartbook of the
In Gold We Trust Report 2020
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle
Mark J. Valek
March 2020

2. 2
In Our Partners We Trust

3. 3
The In Gold We Trust report 2020
will be published on May 27th!
Subscribe by following the link:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?

4. 4
Executive Summary of the In Gold We Trust 2020 Preview Chartbook
1. Gold - What does the “7th sense of the financial markets” tell us?
• Gold is trading at all time highs in many major currencies with an average rise of 9% in 2020 so far!
2. Recession - Despite numerous indications still a Black Swan?
• Currently, we see the longest, but also the weakest economic expansion in the USA since 1945, which indicates an artificial
maintenance of the economy!
• The monetary U-turn is already happening with rapidly expanding balance sheets and panic rate cuts.
3. Inflation - The ultimate pain-trade?
• In the last decades we underwent ever-weaker price inflation. This is prompting central bankers to take extreme measures.
Even the raising of the inflation target from 2% to 4% is increasingly discussed among central bankers and economists!
4. Gold Mining Stocks - Gold up, gold stocks catching up?
• Gold mining stocks have been performing excellent in the shadow of gold. However, the real breakout may still be pending in
this promising environment for mining stocks!
5. Quo Vadis? - Will gold exceed its all time high in USD?
• Low real interest rates and a rising amount of risk factors (corona crisis, trade war, US elections, etc.) play right into the hands
of gold as a safe haven!

5. 5
1. Gold
What does the “seventh sense of the financial
markets” tell us?
“Where gold speaks every tongue is silent.”
Proverb

6. 6
Annual Gold Performance in Major Currencies
Source: www.goldprice.org, Incrementum AG, prices per 04/03/2020
EUR USD GBP AUD CAD CNY JPY CHF INR Average
2001 8.1% 2.5% 5.4% 11.3% 8.8% 2.5% 17.4% 5.0% 5.8% 7.4%
2002 5.9% 24.7% 12.7% 13.5% 23.7% 24.8% 13.0% 3.9% 24.0% 16.2%
2003 -0.5% 19.6% 7.9% -10.5% -2.2% 19.5% 7.9% 7.0% 13.5% 6.9%
2004 -2.7% 5.3% -2.3% 1.8% -1.9% 5.3% 0.7% -3.4% 0.6% 0.5%
2005 36.8% 20.0% 33.0% 28.9% 15.4% 17.0% 37.6% 37.8% 24.2% 26.1%
2006 10.6% 23.0% 8.1% 13.7% 23.0% 19.1% 24.3% 14.1% 20.9% 17.2%
2007 18.4% 30.9% 29.2% 18.3% 12.1% 22.3% 22.9% 21.7% 16.5% 21.7%
2008 10.5% 5.6% 43.2% 31.3% 30.1% -2.4% -14.4% -0.1% 28.8% 15.5%
2009 20.7% 23.4% 12.7% -3.0% 5.9% 23.6% 26.8% 20.1% 19.3% 16.5%
2010 38.8% 29.5% 34.3% 13.5% 22.3% 24.9% 13.0% 16.7% 23.7% 25.2%
2011 14.2% 10.1% 10.5% 10.2% 13.5% 5.9% 4.5% 11.2% 31.1% 11.2%
2012 4.9% 7.0% 2.2% 5.4% 4.3% 6.2% 20.7% 4.2% 10.3% 7.5%
2013 -31.2% -28.3% -29.4% -16.2% -23.0% -30.2% -12.8% -30.1% -18.7% -24.1%
2014 12.1% -1.5% 5.0% 7.7% 7.9% 1.2% 12.3% 9.9% 0.8% 6.2%
2015 -0.3% -10.4% -5.2% 0.4% 7.5% -6.2% -10.1% -9.9% -5.9% -3.8%
2016 12.4% 9.1% 30.2% 10.5% 5.9% 16.8% 5.8% 10.8% 11.9% 12.3%
2017 -1.0% 13.6% 3.2% 4.6% 6.0% 6.4% 8.9% 8.1% 6.4% 6.3%
2018 2.7% -2.1% 3.8% 8.5% 6.3% 3.5% -4.7% -1.2% 6.6% 2.6%
2019 22.7% 18.9% 14.2% 19.3% 13.0% 20.3% 17.7% 17.1% 21.6% 18.3%
2020 ytd 8.8% 8.0% 11.4% 14.5% 11.3% 8.1% 6.8% 6.7% 11.5% 9.7%
Average 9.6% 10.4% 11.5% 9.2% 9.5% 9.4% 9.9% 7.5% 12.6% 10.0%

7. 7
Gold Performance in Major Currencies (indexed 100 = 01/2009),
01/2009–02/2020
Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
JPY EUR GBP CAD CNY USD CHF

8. 8
S&P 500/Gold Ratio, 01/2008–02/2020
Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Gold/S&P 500 ratio 90d MA 200d MA

9. 9
Dow/Gold Ratio (log), 01/1800–02/2020
0
1
10
100
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Dow/Gold ratio
?
1913
Gold Standard Era
Fiat Money Era
Gold low
Stocks high
Gold high
Stocks low
Gold high
Stocks low
Gold low
Stocks high
Gold low
Stocks high
Gold low
Stocks high
Gold high
Stocks low
Gold high
Stocks low
1971
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

10. 10
Dow/Gold Ratio (log), 01/1800–02/2020
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
0
1
10
100
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Dow/Gold ratio
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
Period Date Stock Market (DJIA) Gold price Dow/Gold ratio
Start End Start End Return Start End Return Start End
A-B 02/1802 08/1835 3 23 599% 19 21 7% 0.2 1.1
B-C 08/1835 03/1842 23 6 -76% 21 21 0% 1.1 0.3
C-D 03/1842 01/1853 6 21 268% 21 21 0% 0.3 1.0
D-E 01/1853 10/1857 21 8 -62% 21 21 0% 1.0 0.4
E-F 10/1857 08/1863 8 26 220% 21 27 32% 0.4 0.9
F-G 08/1863 03/1865 26 21 -18% 27 53 95% 0.9 0.4
G-H 03/1865 08/1929 21 380 1,705% 53 21 -61% 0.4 18.4
H-I 08/1929 06/1932 380 43 -89% 21 21 0% 18.4 2.1
I-J 06/1932 01/1966 43 984 2,196% 21 36 72% 2.1 27.7
J-K 01/1966 01/1980 984 876 -11% 36 722 1,934% 27.7 1.2
K-L 01/1980 08/1999 876 10,829 1,136% 722 258 -64% 1.2 42.1
L-M 08/1999 08/2011 10,829 11,614 7% 258 1824 608% 42.1 6.3

11. 11
Dow Jones Industrial Average (lhs), and Dow/Gold Ratio (rhs), 07/2018–
02/2020
Source: Eric Pomboy, Meridian Macro Research LLC, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
20 000
22 500
25 000
27 500
30 000
DJIA Dow/Gold ratio

12. 12
Gold/MSCI World Ratio (log), 01/1990–02/2020
Source: StockCharts.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
0.13
0.25
0.50
1.00
2.00
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Gold/MSCI World ratio
First rate cut
01/2001
First rate cut
09/2001
First rate cut
07/2019

13. 13
S&P 500 and Gold Performance in Biggest S&P 500 Decline Phases
Source: BMG Group Inc., Incrementum AG
Biggest S&P 500 declines S&P 500 Gold
09/1976 - 03/1978 -19.4% 53.8%
08/1987 - 12/1987 -33.5% 6.2%
07/1990 - 10/1990 -19.9% 6.8%
03/2000 - 10/2002 -49.0% 12.4%
10/2007 - 03/2009 -56.8% 25.5%
05/2011 - 10/2011 -19.0% 9.4%

14. 14
Gold Returns in Various Currencies
Source: Michael Nicoletos, Incrementum AG
Gold Returns 1971-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-today 2019
in USD 1,268% -22% -28% 281% 39% 19%
in EUR 1,256% -3% -15% 168% 80% 23%
in GBP 1,275% 9% -28% 281% 84% 24%
in CHF 1,098% -24% -26% 148% 32% 19%
in JPY 1,219% -53% -49% 246% 59% 15%
in AUD 1,269% 7% -18% 179% 85% 24%
in CAD 1,282% -23% -10% 177% 75% 16%
in INR 1,274% 30% 33% 313% 114% 23%
in RUB 1,296% -17% 30% 306% 209% 15%
in ZAR 1,251% 142% 73% 357% 189% 27%
in CNY 1,204% 155% 26% 214% 46% 24%
in TRY 1,358% 74% 71% 939% 442% 31%
in BRL 1,360% -24% 72% 278% 232% 27%
in ARS 1,356% 68% -29% 1,370% 1,930% 75%

15. 15
Bloomberg Commodity Index TR (lhs), and US Dollar Index (rhs,
inverted), 01/2009–02/2020
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bloomberg Commodity Index TR US Dollar Index
Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

16. 16
Central Bank Gold Reserves in % of Total Global Gold Stock, 1845–2019
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1845 1860 1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010
Central bank gold reserves in % of total global gold stock
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, World Gold Council, Incrementum AG

17. 17
Central Bank Gold Reserves, in tonnes, Q1/2000–Q4/2019
Source: World Gold Council, Incrementum AG
8 000
13 000
18 000
23 000
28 000
33 000
Q1 2000 Q1 2002 Q1 2004 Q1 2006 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2018
Rest of the World Euro Area (incl. ECB) United States Russia China

18. 18
Value of Central Bank Gold Reserves in % of GDP, 2000–2019
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, World Bank, World Gold Council, Incrementum AG
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Russia Euro Area (incl. ECB) USA Rest of the World China

19. 19
Value of Global Central Bank Gold Reserves in % of Global GDP, 1870–
2019
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, World Gold Council, ourworldindata.org, IMF, World Bank, Incrementum AG
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Value of global central bank gold reserves in % of global GDP

20. 20
Value of Gold Reserves as % of GDP in Top 10 Countries with Largest
Gold Reserves, 2000 vs. 2019
0.3%
1.9%
1.6%
0.7%
1.9%
0.1%
1.9%
1.2%
8.0%
0.7%0.7%
4.2%
4.1%
1.0%
5.8%
0.7%
3.2%
6.6%
6.9%
1.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
China France Germany India Italy Japan Netherlands Russia Switzerland USA
2000 2019
Source: IMF, World Gold Council, Incrementum AG

21. 21
2. Recession
Despite numerous indications, still a Black
Swan?
“Boy, that escalated quickly…!”
Ron Burgundy, “Anchorman”

22. 22
Economic Expansions by Length (lhs), in months, and Magnitude (rhs),
in %
37
45
39
24
106
36
58
12
92
120
73
126
3.1
6.9
4.0
5.6
4.8
5.1
4.4 4.4 4.3
3.6
2.9
2.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Oct-1945 Oct-1949 May-1954 Apr-1958 Feb-1961 Nov-1970 Mar-1975 Jul-1980 Nov-1982 Mar-1991 Nov-2001 Jun-2009
Length Magnitude
Source: Department of Commerce, Incrementum AG

23. 23
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, 01/1997–12/2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Recession Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
Source: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG

24. 24
Recesssion Probability within the Next 12 Months, 01/1990–01/2020
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Recession Recession probability (12 months ahead)
Source: Federal Reserve NY, Incrementum AG

25. 25
Percentage of US Yield Curve Inversions, 01/1970–02/2020
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Recession Percentage of US yield curve inversions
?
Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital LLC, Incrementum AG

26. 26
ISM Manufacturing Index (lhs), and US 10Y-3M Treasury Spread, in %
(rhs, 1 year advanced), 01/1960–02/2021
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
25
35
45
55
65
75
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Recession ISM Manufacturing Index US 10Y-3M
Source: franzlischka.blogspot.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

27. 27
Distribution of US GDP Projections Made by 87 Analysts, per Year, in %,
2020–2021
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Numberofanalysts
Annual GDP growth
2020 2021
Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

28. 28
Federal Funds Rate, in % (lhs), and S&P 500 (log, rhs), 01/1990–02/2020
200
400
800
1 600
3 200
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Recession Federal funds rate S&P 500 (log)
Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

29. 29
Average Working Hours to Buy the S&P 500, 1860–2020
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Hours Average
Average = 30.9

30. 30
3. Inflation
The ultimate pain trade?
“The two main risk factors for the average portfolio are less-
than-expected growth and more-than-expected inflation.”
Ray Dalio

31. 31
Everything Bubble, Q1/1970–Q3/2019
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Financial assets of households/Disposable personal income
Dot-Com Bubble
Housing Bubble
Everything Bubble
Source: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG

32. 32
Measures of Core Inflation, YoY%, 01/1995–01/2020
Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE inflation rate Cleveland Fed median CPI
US CPI less food & energy US personal consumption expenditure index

33. 33
Purchasing Power Loss of the USD (lhs), and Gold Price Multiple (rhs),
1900–2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Purchasing power USD Gold
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG

34. 34
Money Supply per Capita in the US, in USD, 1960–2019
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
50 000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Currency in circulation per capita M1 per capita M2 per capita

35. 35
Milligrams Gold per Euro, 01/1999–02/2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Milligram gold per Euro
-83%
Source: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG

36. 36
Euro Purchasing Power Loss, 1999–2020
Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Actual Planned

37. 37
Purchasing Power of Euro and Gold as Measured by the Average
Expenditure per Soccer Player Transfer (log), 1970–2019
0.0
0.1
1.0
10.0
1970 1977 1984 1991 1998 2005 2012 2019
Euro Gold
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, transfermarkt.de, Incrementum AG

38. 38
Inflation by Item in Great Britain
Source: The Guardian (2019), Incrementum AG
Item Price in 1969 In 1969 ounces of gold Inflation adjusted price Current price In current ounces of gold
Average house price £4,312 292 £71,333 £215,910 185
Average wage (male, full time) £1,560 106 £24,050 £31,834 27
Average wage (female, full time) £847 57 £13,068 £26,103 22
Sports car £890 60 £14,723 £22,160 19
Small car £595 40 £9,860 £16,195 14
Flight (London to Tokyo) £325 22 £5,376 £900 0.77
Colour television (19 inch) £240 16 £3,970 £99 0.085
Package holiday (two weeks in
Benidorm, August, pp)
£78 5.3 £1,290 £950 0.82
Fresh whole chicken 41p 0.028 £6.80 £2.80 0.0024
Instant coffee 21.8p 0.015 £3.60 £1.89 0.0016
Eggs (dozen, large) 20.2p 0.014 £3.34 £1.89 0.0016
Beer (pint of bitter) 10p 0.007 £1.65 £3.70 0.0032
Loaf of white bread 8p 0.005 £1.32 59p 0.0005
Bag of sugar 8p 0.005 £1.32 69p 0.0006
Petrol (litre) 7.3p 0.005 £120 128p 0.0011
Milk (pint) 4.4p 0.003 73p 50p 0.0004
Stamp 2.2p 0.001 36.5p 70p 0.0006
Tube fare (one mile) 2.2p 0.001 36.5p £2.40 0.0021
Electricity (per kwh) 0.78p 0.001 12.9p 14.4p 0.0001

39. 39
US CPI Growth by Decade, in %, 1950–2019
24%
28%
158%
64%
34%
28%
19%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
CPI by decade
Source: Bloomberg, Incrementum AG

40. 40
US 10Y Breakeven Inflation Rate (lhs), and Dow/Gold Ratio (rhs),
08/2018–02/2020
Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
08/2018 11/2018 02/2019 05/2019 08/2019 11/2019 02/2020
US 10Y Breakeven inflation rate Dow/Gold ratio

41. 41
Global Negative-Yielding Debt, in USD tn, 01/2012–02/2020
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Global negative yielding debt market value
Source: Bloomberg, Incrementum AG

42. 42
4. Gold Mining Stocks
Gold up, gold stocks catching up?
“The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.”
John F. Kennedy

43. 43
BGMI Bull Markets Since 1942
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1 41 81 121 161 201 241 281 321 361 401
Number of Weeks
10/1942-02/1946 07/1960-03/1968 12/1971-08/1974 08/1976-10/1980
11/2000-03/2008 10/2008-04/2011 01/2016-02/2020
current bull market
Source: Nowandfutures, TheDailyGold.com, Barrons, Incrementum AG

44. 44
Annual Over-/Underperformance of the BGMI Compared to Gold in USD,
in %, 1971–2019
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013 2019
Over/Underperformance
Source: Bullion Management Group Inc., Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG

45. 45
MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index, and SPDR Gold Shares,
indexed, 100 = 01/2016, 01/2016–02/2020
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MSCI emerging markets currency index SPDR gold shares
Source: Gavekal, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

46. 46
S&P 500 & GDM Index, 01/1994–02/2020
Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
S&P 500 GDM
Inverse
Inverse

47. 47
BGMI/S&P 500 Ratio (log), 01/1940–02/2020
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
0
1
10
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
BGMI/S&P 500 ratio Median (BGMI/S&P 500 ratio)

48. 48
BGMI/Gold Ratio (log), 01/1940–02/2020
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
0
1
10
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
BGMI/Gold ratio Median (BGMI/Gold ratio)

49. 49
5. Quo Vadis?
Will gold exceed its all-time high in USD?
“The only permanent truth in finance is that people will get
bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom.”
Jim Grant

50. 50
Actual Gold Price and Projections, in USD, 1971–2049
Source: Pierre Lassonde, Reuters Eikon, U.S. Global Investors, Incrementum AG
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Actual gold price Compound annual growth rate (from 1971)
Compound annual growth rate (from 1990) Compound annual growth rate (from 2000)
from 1971: 7.7% p.a.
from 1990: 4.8% p.a.
from 2000: 9.5% p.a.

51. 51
Gold Price Necessary for a Return to the Gold Standard, 1960–2019
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Actual gold price Gold price necessary to back 40% of M2
Source: Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

52. 52
300 Years of Gold/Silver Ratio, 1718–2019
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1718 1768 1818 1868 1918 1968 2018
Gold/silver ratio Average Median
2019: G/S ratio = 85
~3x above average
~5x above median
Source: Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com, Incrementum AG

53. 53
Gold/Silver Ratio Scenarios (x-axis: Silver Price, y-axis: Gold Price)
Source: Incrementum AG, *Average G/S ratio since 1718 (Nick Laird, goldchartsrus.com)
Gold/Silver Ratios 10.0 14.3 20.0 25.0 33.3 50.0 100.0
1,000 100.0 70.0 50.0 40.0 30.0* 20.0 10.0
1,100 110.0 77.0 55.0 44.0 33.0 22.0 11.0
1,200 120.0 84.0 60.0 48.0 36.0 24.0 12.0
1,300 130.0 91.0 65.0 52.0 39.0 26.0 13.0
1,400 140.0 98.0 70.0 56.0 42.0 28.0 14.0
1,500 150.0 105.0 75.0 60.0 45.0 30.0* 15.0
1,600 160.0 112.0 80.0 64.0 48.0 32.0 16.0
1,700 170.0 119.0 85.0 68.0 51.0 34.0 17.0
1,800 180.0 126.0 90.0 72.0 54.0 36.0 18.0
1,900 190.0 133.0 95.0 76.0 57.0 38.0 19.0
2,000 200.0 140.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0
2,100 210.0 147.0 105.0 84.0 63.0 42.0 21.0
2,200 220.0 154.0 110.0 88.0 66.0 44.0 22.0
2,300 230.0 161.0 115.0 92.0 69.0 46.0 23.0
2,400 240.0 168.0 120.0 96.0 72.0 48.0 24.0

54. 54
S&P 500/Silver Ratio, 01/1990–02/2020
Source: Crescat Capital LLC, Tavi Costa, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
S&P 500/Silver ratio

55. 55
Commodities – The Biggest Contrarian Investment?
GSCI TR/S&P 500 Ratio, 01/1971–02/2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
SPGSCITR Commodity Index/S&P 500 ratio
Median: 4.09
GFC 2008
Gulf War 1990
Oil Crisis 1973/74
Dot-Com Bubble
Everything
(except commodities)
Bubble
Source: Bloomberg, Torsten Dennin, Lynkeus Capital, Incrementum AG

56. 56
The World's Largest Firms by Market Cap* –
Time To Revisit Commodity Stocks?
Source: Gavekal, Incrementum AG. *Not including Berkshire and Saudi Aramco

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The In Gold We Trust report 2020
will be published on May 27th!
Subscribe by following the link:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?

58. 58
Addendum
Because we care…
About our Clients.
About the Society.
About the Future.

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About the In Gold We Trust report
• The gold standard of gold research: Extensive annual
study of gold and gold-related capital market
developments
• Reference work for everybody interested in gold and
mining stocks
• International recognition – newspaper articles in more
than 60 countries; almost 2 million readers
• To be published for the 14th time on May 27, 2020, with
versions in English, German, and Chinese
• Further information and all editions can be found at:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/?lang=en

60. 60
About the Authors
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, CMT
• Ronni is managing partner of
Incrementum AG and responsible
for research and portfolio
management
• In 2007 he published his first In
Gold We Trust report. Over the
years, the study has become one of
the benchmark publications on
gold, money, and inflation.
• Advisor for Tudor Gold Corp.
(TUD), a significant explorer in
British Columbia’s Golden Triangle.
• Member of the advisory board of
Affinity Metals (AFF).
Mark J. Valek, CAIA
• Mark is a partner of Incrementum
AG and responsible for portfolio
management and research.
• Prior to Incrementum, he was with
Merrill Lynch and then for 10 years
with Raiffeisen Capital
Management, most recently as fund
manager in the area of inflation
protection.
• He gained entrepreneurial
experience as co-founder of philoro
Edelmetalle GmbH.

61. 61
Selected Testimonials
John Reade
Chief Market Strategist
World Gold Council
“Arguably, the In Gold We Trust report is the most
comprehensive analysis of the global political
economy through the lens of the Austrian School of
economic thought. A unique perspective on gold,
with some fantastic charts and always an enjoyable
read.”

62. 62
Selected Testimonials
Rick Rule
President & CEO
Sprott U.S. Holdings, Inc
“A must-read for people who invest in precious
metals and precious metals equities. A pleasant
read, too – well-researched and well-written.”

63. 63
Selected Testimonials
Brien Lundin
Editor of Gold Newsletter and CEO of the
New Orleans Investment Conference
“The annual In Gold We Trust report has become
today’s most widely read and perhaps most
influential piece of research on gold, along with the
major economic and market trends affecting it.”

64. 64
Selected Testimonials
Simon Mikhailovich
Founder
Tocqueville Bullion Reserve
“When it comes to finding the most insightful and
comprehensive annual gold report, in Incrementum
I trust.”

65. 65
About Incrementum AG
Incrementum AG is an owner-managed and fully licensed asset
manager & wealth manager based in the Principality of
Liechtenstein.
more information on
www.incrementum.li
❖ Independence is the cornerstone of our
philosophy. The partners own 100% of the
company.
❖ Our goal is to offer solid and innovative
investment solutions that do justice to the
opportunities and risks of today’s complex and
fragile environment.
❖ Our core competencies are in the areas of:
o Wealth management
o Precious metal and commodity investments
o Active inflation protection
o Crypto and alternative currency exposure
o Special mandates

66. 66
Contact Us
Incrementum AG
Im alten Riet 102
9494 – Schaan/Liechtenstein
www.incrementum.li
www.ingoldwetrust.li
Email: ingoldwetrust@incrementum.li

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Disclaimer
This publication is for information purposes only. It represents neither investment advice nor an investment analysis or an invitation to
buy or sell financial instruments. Specifically, the document does not serve as a substitute for individual-investment or other advice.
The statements contained in this publication are based on knowledge as of the time of preparation and are subject to change at any
time without further notice.
The authors have exercised the greatest possible care in the selection of the information sources employed. However, they do not
accept any responsibility (and neither does Incrementum AG) for the correctness, completeness, or timeliness of the information as
well as any liabilities or damages, irrespective of their nature, that may result therefrom (including consequential or indirect damages,
loss of prospective profits, or the accuracy of prepared forecasts).
Copyright: 2020 Incrementum AG. All rights reserved.