Teaching material on course Project Management

1. Kimmo Haapea
©Anne-Marie Tuomala
Project management skills
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2.  Being
prepared for
various futures

3. IMPORTANCE TO BUILD UP THE
BIG PICTURE OF THE FUTURE
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”For knowledge is limited to all we now
know and understand, while imagination
embraces the entire world, and all there
ever will be to know and understand.”
“Imagination is more important than
knowledge. ”

4. Projektiosaaminen T549SN 4
Why to think about the future
when we cannot predict it?
 Be prepared for various
futures (anticipation)
 Innovating the futures and
breaking our mental models
 Communicating and discussion
about futures with
shareholders -> STRATEGY

5. What future forecasting means? (1)
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”We can make influence on our own
future, by making correct choices we can
make possibilities as reality.”
”Future forecasting enables to keep up
belief in the future”.
(Source: Tulevaisuusluotain, 2006, p. 2)

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What future forecasting means? (2)
Future forecasting is not to predict, it is..
• A systematic way to collect future related information
for the decision making. The used methods are close
to future research methods.
• It is activities that tries to build optional futures and to
be prepared to them.
• It is based on the analysis of the present and of the
past

7. What future forecasting means? (3)
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• Future forecasting also means to trial to influence on
the future but also to manage insecurity
• Future forecasting operations are systematic, but
participatory process, where the information is
collected, assessed and analyzed and is crated
visions for the mid-term and long-term
• The main purpose is to improve and enlarge the
knowledge basis of the current decision making.

8. What future forecasting means? (4)
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The basic content of the future forecasting
1) To describe the future, to create, develop and utilize
analyzing methods
1) To produce, search, manage, edit, analyze and
report the future related information

9. Future work of various
organizations
 Macroscenarios
(Shell)
 Consumer scenarios
(Philips, Sony
Ericsson)
 Reports on various
topics (Siemens,
IBM)
 Futures
teasers(Philips
Design, VW)

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11. TIME SCALE OF TIME SEQUENCES
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SHORT (1/2 – 2 y.)
Rapid changes in economy and in labour markets
(barometers and opinion surveys)
MID-TERM (2–5 y.)
Strategy building, technology forecasts, education
planning
LONG-TERM (5-15 y.)
Megatrend,
Scenario building
Population growth forecasts

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First it is to know the current situation, present
time and historical issues, which have created
the current the current situation (e.g. SWOT
analysis is used for analyses)
It is essential to identify the change drivers of
operating environment and make conclusions
out of that (e.g. PESTEL analysis)
Change drivers may create and success stories
and threat scenarios.

14. TRIANGLE CONCEPT OF MAKING
FUTURE FORECASTING
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* OPEN
*PARTICIPATORY
*ACTION
ORIENTATED
Debating
the future
Shaping
the future
Thinking
the future

15. Digging up the non-obvious
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16. Some concepts of the
future
Fad
Trend
Megatrend
duration
WeakSignals

17. Weak signal (1)
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- New or yet to be born phenomenon
- Able to create radically influencing processes in the
future
- Exists only a short moment every now and then
- May create a trend
- It is assumed that the finder is in the better position to
prepare for the future
- Business life is active in searching weak signals as
many success stories have been born like this

18. Weak signals
 Signals of new emerging issues that can
become big trends in the future- or then
not

19. Weak signal (2)
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In general, the characteristics of weak signal is that it
is strange, an odd thing. An average persons is
avoiding it, because a weak signal comes outside the
existing systems and ”truths”..
It is worth to remind, that nearly all important,
technological or economical or society reforms have
originally been ”freaks”.
A WEAK SIGNAL CAN BE WHEREEVER, WHATEVER,
WHENEVER. THERE IS NO CLEAR CONSLUSION
ABOUT THE CONTENT.

20. Weak signal(4)
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According to the analysis of Coffman (1997)
a weak signal is …
 an idea or a trend, which has an influence either on a
company or it’s operating environment
 new and surprising from the receiver point of view
 sometimes hard to recognize because of the other
signals and meaningless common noise
 a treat and a possibility, depending on the company
 mostly underestimated from the experts point of view
 a delay time is natural for a weak signal until maturing
and becoming mainstream
 enables to learn, to develop and to be developed

21. A weak signal test
1. Makes your colleagues to
laugh
2. Your friends are opposing
it:no way, it will never
happen
3. Makes people to wonder
4. No one has heard about it
before
5. It is wanted that no-one
talks about it anymore (a
tabu)
1-5 ticks and it is a weak
signal!

22. Different kinds of weak signals
 Technological
weak signals 
innovations
 Social weak signals
 something is done
differently, a change
in accustomed
”Stay hungry,
stay foolish”

23. Where do we find them?
 Surfing in the Internet
 Social media
 Blogs, blogs and blogs
 Keep your eyes and ears open everywhere,
mobilephone with camera in the other hand
reporting about weak signals

24. MEGATRENDS CREATE BIG PICTURE
OF THE FUTURE–
TENDENCIES WHICH ARE VALID ABOUT 10 – 15
YEARS FROM NOW ON
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25. Megatrends
are big
trends that
concern a lot
of people
Ageing of
big age
groups

26. Globalization

27. Networking
Source: http://www.cartoonweb.com/

28. Technological development

29. Increase of
the use of
social media
Increase of
distance work
Increase of use
of renewable
energy sources
Increase of
single person
households
Increase of use
of mobile phones
Increase of …?

30. Projektiosaaminen T549SN 30

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www.taiwanforesight.org

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Other cross-cutting
megatrends
•Increasing mobility
•Networked world
•Women’s position
Population related megatrends
•Growth of population
•Ageing
•Urbanization
•Migration
Market related megatrends
•Globalization
•Rising BRIC countries
•Transparency
•Ethical consumption
Nature related megatrends
•Scarcity of natural resources
•Global climate change
•Local environmental problems
Society related megatrends
•Time pressure of individuals
•Freedom of choices
•Middle class growth
•Changing family structures
BRIC countries are Brazil, Russia, India and China

33. Projektiosaaminen T549SN 33
2017

34. Where megatrends are used?
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Business and public organizations utilize
megatrends in their strategies
Megatrends are to help building up scenarios

35. PESTEL -analysis for the assessment of
external environment
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Define the issue or phenonemon what you are going to assess
Record the political, environmental, social, technological, economic and legal
issues which you suppose to have impact in the future development

36. Exercise 1. Pair work:
Make a PESTEL-analysis
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Optional topics (choose one):
Use of solar energy in Finland
ICT development in building sector
Grey wolf population in Finland
Growing amount of single persons’ households
Green mining

37. PESTEL SHEET
POLITICAL ENVIRONM
ENTAL
SOCIAL TECHNO-
LOGICAL
ECONOMIC LEGAL
1
2
3
4
5
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38. Help to find the glue of the
manuscript of the future
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39. UTILIZING SCENARIO IN STRATEGY BUILDING
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PHASES
1. Assessing the present, by SWOT, resource assessment,
defining values, hopes, fears and goals and weak signals are
observed
2. Create 3-5 optional scenarios
3. Create a vision of a company/organization
4. Create a mission, which is a clause of the track how the
vision is achieved
5. Scenario process is repeated time to time as the external
environment is rapidly changing
6. The scenarios should always be wide enough

40. ROLE OF SCENARIO
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A typical assumption and mistake is that the scenarios are
seen as results of the future forecasting. Scenarios are just
tools for the strategic decision making and for the selection
of alternative operational models. SCENARIO IS NOT A
RESULT.
Scenario is one selected picture of the future, one of the
possible ones.

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ONE SCENARIO SHOULD BE SELECTED TO
MAKE VISION AND OTHER STRATEGY TASKS
AND PLANNING

42. IN GREEN ECONOMY
According to Jared Diamond
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43. Jared Diamond’s possible future
 An American evolution biologist
Jared Diamond, a Professor of
Geography at the University of
California, Los Angeles
 A book: “Collapse : how societies
choose to fall or succeed” , 2005.
He says the cultures have
propensity to exploit their
environment and the existence
of culture might be shaken. In
worst case the situation may
lead to the ecocide, an
environmental suicide of the
culture as the culture and
environment are inseparable.
 New cultures born to replace
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http://www.edge.org/memberbio/jared_dia
mond

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• Overpopulation
• Consumption
patterns
• Toxic chemicals
• Greenhouse gases
• Alien species or
• out of control spreading
species
• Energy resources
• Pure water
• Photosynthesis
resources
• Forests
• Fish stocks
• Surface soil
• Biodiversity
Maintenance
of renewable
materials
Decrea-
sing
natural
resources
Human
activities
Threat-
ening
harms
Keys for the management of the
future according to Jared Diamond

45. Source: Sitra reports 61,
Ympäristöteknologian ennakointi,
Taustoja ja puheenvuoroja
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46. PARADOXICAL RULE
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The professional
environmental tech-
nology forecasting
concentrates less to the
environment and less
to the technology
WHY???

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Environmental technology:
Wireless technology
Process technology
Chemistry
Biotechnology
Nanotechnology
Electronics
Automation
The technology is environmental
technology if it is used to improve the
environmental protection

48. To where Finland should navigate with cleantech?
Options according to the Sitra report:
OPTIONAL ROUTES TO THE EXPORT MARKETS
1. Nordenskiöld –route – Russia and toxics focus
2. Vasco da Gama –route – India and water focus
3. Marco Polo –route – China and energy focus
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49. Attitudes are burdens for the utilization of the
future forecasting information
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Do you recognize comments like:
”That cannot be done”
”That is stupid”
”That is not mentioned in the rules”
”That is against guidelines”
”We don’t have budget for that”
”We don’t have time”.
”That will never be accepted”
”That is not what is required”
”Are you joking?”

50. TO CONCLUDE
As the uncertainty of the future is increasing
and, at the same time, attempts and
expectations for the future are increasing as
well, there is growing demand towards
future forecasting knowledge.
More and more project ideas, business ideas
and development ideas are put under the
social microscope.
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51. TrendWiki
wnc.trendwiki.fi
a tool for organizations for collecting
futures information