AITPM presentation

1. Land Use Modelling for
Developing Countries
Presenter: David Freer
Thursday 14 August 2014

2. • The Project
• Developing the model – challenges
• Approach adopted – step through
• Outcomes and lessons learnt
Note: Project is live and commercial in confidence – no actual
model data can be provided
Presentation Overview

3. The Project

4. Building the Model – data inputs,
parameters, outcomes

5. The Study Area

6. Model Development – Challenges
• Road Network
• No consistent or accurate road database (GIS centre line, lanes, speeds etc)
• Limited future network planning – only ADB projects
• Road Operations
• No reliable traffic counts
• No OD or TT Surveys
• No freight use surveys
• Model parameters
• Nothing official – we developed them
• Land Use
• Limited census data – very limited place of work data
• No HTS, JTW – very limited travel behaviour data only observed
• Limited car registration

7. Future Year Land Use Planning

8. • Now what?
Gap Analysis

9. • What have we got and how we can get more
• census and other data analysis and manipulation
• Survey options/consultation
• Get help- uni
• Zoning system - Divisional Secretary’s Divisions (DSD)
• Assessment Time Frames – 20 year project assessment
• Mapping land use patterns
• Assumptions and guiding principles
• Getting to a base data set
• Data processing
• Running the model and scenarios
Making sense of it all – Land use

10. • GIS land use mapping
• Get all the data – its out there somewhere
• Demographic Data sets – we define
• Population groups
• Household
• Vehicle registrations
• Employment groups
• Assumptions
• live and work in relatively close proximity – DSD total generally as
control
• Generic industry destines per employment type were used as a guide.
• 2001 census data land use patterns were largely reflective of 2012 land
patterns
Mapping the land use - existing

11. Percentage Growth per year
2011 - 2016 2016 - 2021 2021 - 2023 2026 - 2036
Employment 1.79% 1.65% 1.44% 1.24%
Population 1.41% 1.26% 1.12% 0.99%
Household 1.93% 1.85% 1.78% 1.46%
Motor Car Registration 7.28% 6.61% 5.96% 5.43%
Mapping the land use – future
• Growth rates outside of growth centres were based on historical
growth, national growth projections with following assumptions
• Annual growth rates will progressively slowdown in the long term
future
• Average household size will gradually reduce in the future
• Vehicles per household will gradually increase in the future
• Employment: population rate will gradually increase in the future
• Total population and employment growth capped to projected growth
rate for that date period for whole study area

12. Data Processing

13. • Data Cleansing and Analysis
• Base Year (2012) Demographic
Data
• Population
• Employment
• Registration
• Future Year Growth Rates –
balancing
• Incorporation into the model
• Trip generation rates
(regression analysis)
Data Processing

14. Population Growth – Study Area

15. Employment Growth – Study Area

16. Modelled Versus Observed
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
Modelled
Observed

17. • On the ground time and
discussions
• Use local knowledge and support
• Getting the right team
• Be pragmatic and flexible –
preparation, project framing,
assumptions, technology V
experience
• Patience and persistence
Key Lessons Learnt

18. Thank You
Banora Point Upgrade, New South Wales, Australia