Presentation by Jose Molina, Course 500.111 - Fall 2015 Johns Hopkins University: Global Climate Phenomena & Climate Change. Reflections on California Drought, Water Supply in Western US, Massive Fires in Indonesia, and Precipitation changes in the Tropics

1. Sep 1 – 7, 2015
Large-scale Ocean-Atmosphere phenomena
José M. Molina
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
General Engineering 500.111 -HEART-, Nov 2, 2015

2. Motivation

3. 1
• Some definitions/theory on Global
Climate Phenomena
2
• Impacts El Niño/La Niña & others in the
Environment and Water Resources
3
• Forecasting ENSO with Global Climate
Models & predicting Impacts
4
• Final Comments/Remarks
Outline of this talk

4. _____________________________
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
SSP - La Niña
SSP - El Niño
SST - La Niña
SST - El Niño
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-3-2-10123
Fall SOI
SOIIndex
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-3-2-10123
Winter SOI
SOIIndex
SO = SLP(Tahiti) – SLP(Darwin)
SOI = Standardization of SO series
US National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

5. Time
anom.ts
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-2-10123
Index: running 3-month mean sst anomaly
Region: LON = [ -170 -120 ] LAT = [ -5 5 ]
Time series from sst.mnmean
Feb 1958
Nov 1972
Jan 1983
Dec 1997
Dec 2009
ONI: Oceanic Niño Index (it is a measure based on Sea Surface Temp)

6. In California, this is the guy! The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
PDO = 1st PC of SSTs in the North Pacific Ocean
University of Washington http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

7. Atmospheric response in the Negative Phase of the PDO
Dr. Patzaert PPT @ NASA/JPL , 2015 “Drought: In or Out”

8. 1
• Some definitions/theory on Global
Climate Phenomena
2
• Impacts El Niño/La Niña & others in the
Environment and Water Resources
3
• Forecasting ENSO with Global Climate
Models & predicting Impacts
4
• Final Comments/Remarks
Outline of this talk

9. Drought in California: Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, Sept 2015
EOS, AGU
Mountain snowpack provides 30 % of California’s
annual water supply when it melts and flows to rivers

10. Exceptional Drought in California: This is the driest spell in 500 yr !
US Drought Monitor revisited by Climate.gov
Mountain snowpack provides 30 %
annual water supply when it melts a

11. 16171819202122
Jul
16171819202122
Aug
16182022
0 20 40 60 80 100
Sep
time
1012141618
Oct
8101214
Nov
4681012
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dec
time
temp Celsius at Napa - California , 1876 - 2006 Annual temp , Napa - California
time
StdAnomalies
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
-2-1012
moving average
Evidence of Climate Change at the watershed scale ?
average temperatures in CA
have increased by 2.5 degrees
Fahrenheit over 130 years

12. flow , NapaNew
time
StdAnomalies
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-10123
moving average
Annual Streamflow Anomalies

13. Massive fires in Indonesia, 2015
MODIS/NASA, Sept 24 2015

14. Massive fires in Indonesia, 2015
International Research Institute IRI

15. The case study of the Dalles Dam (Oregon)
 It is a key forecasting point for water supply in the Columbia river basin
 Studies here demonstrated a general trend to warmer and drier winter (Dec-
Mar) conditions during El Niño, then, a trend toward bellow normal spring
runoff. However, nonconformity exists !
Is El Nino acting alone in the Pacific NorthWest?

16. The PDO(-) (cold phase of PDO) modulates the
cold phase of ENSO (La Niña) in a constructive
relationship. This means that the phases of
ENSO and PDO are in phase, and the resulting
increased precipitation in the Fall and Winter
seasons is more stable and persistent, with
direct impacts in snowpack and streamflow.
• Barton et al (2003)

17. -1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Feb: 1948 - 2012
Longitude
Latitude
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
Corr: sst & Prcp @ Ingenio_Manuelita - Colombia ; Feb
Colored areas are statistically significant at the 0.05 confidence level

18. Most probable precipitation changes in
Colombia for El Niño event (moderate)
18
Tercer trimestre,
primer año
Cuarto trimestre,
primer año
Primer trimestre,
segundo año
Déficit alto (0 - 40%)
Déficit ligero (40 - 80%)
Normal (80 - 120%)
Exceso ligero (120 - 160%)
Exceso alto (> 160%)
Source: IDEAM - Colombia

19. It would be nice if this
PDF analysis in the
Tropical Andes involves
additional drivers
other than ENSO?
Poveda et al (2011)

20. Correlation = 0.60 between standardized anomalies of the Nare
River (Andes at Antioquia) and the Multivariate ENSO index
Poveda et al (2011)

21. 1
• Some definitions/theory on Global
Climate Phenomena
2
• Impacts El Niño/La Niña & others in the
Environment and Water Resources
3
• Forecasting ENSO with Global Climate
Models & predicting Impacts
4
• Final Comments/Remarks
Outline of this talk

22. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Global Climate Model (GCM)

23. Forecasting El Niño :

24. Are 2 different strong events of
El Niño having the same
response/impact in precipitation
in the US?

27. 1
• Some definitions/theory on Global
Climate Phenomena
2
• Impacts El Niño/La Niña & others on
Hydrology and Water Resources
3
• Forecasting ENSO with Global Climate
Models & predicting Impacts
4
• Final Comments/Remarks
Outline of this talk

28. How would regional features of dry spells and droughts
change under global warming?
Would future wet events/years be worse than those from the
historical record?
How would the CC signal impact Agriculture at the basin-
scale?
Local Projections will improve decision-making for Climate
Change adaptation?
How climate drivers from CMIP5 runs will help us to
answer these questions?

29. GCM Resolution
Downscaled Resolution
Downscaling
IPCC – AR5 (2014)
How CC will affect future local
hydroclimate in climatically
vulnerable regions ?