Presentation at GCP21 Conference in the session of Cassava Mosaic Disease in Asia to highlight what is at stake with disease potentially impacting the productivity of this important commercial crop.

1. Cassava markets, value chains and livelihoods in Asia:
when uncertain is the only certainty
Dr. Jonathan Newby
Cassava Program Regional Coordinator - Asia
International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)

2. Cassava markets, value chains and
livelihoods in Asia:
when uncertain is the only certainty
Contonou, Benin, June 2018
Jonathan Newby, Cu Thi Le Thuy, Dominic Smith
j.newby@cgiar.org

3. Introduction to cassava in Southeast Asia across scales
As we work through the different scales, consider what a major disease
outbreak mean for various stakeholders in the cassava value chain.
1. The global market and trade
2. Local processors and national exports
3. Rural Livelihoods
Cassava farmers and processors in Asia are
involved in a constant battle to be competitive
VS

4. On the demand side – the market outlook for cassava in Asia needs to be
considered in the context of substitutes in different applications
1. Cassava for direct consumption or sale into short
value chains as fresh roots for food. Competition
with other food such as rice based on price and
consumer preferences.
2. Global markets where cassava chips compete
with other forms of carbohydrate for processing
animal feed or ethanol such as maize, sorghum,
wheat, molasses – oil, gas.
3. Markets where cassava starch competes largely
on price with substitutes such as maize and
potato starch, sugarcane.
4. Markets where the functional properties of the
starch are desired. Consumer preferences, clean
label segment, gluten free etc.

5. And on the supply side – the relative competitiveness against other land use
in the context of different trends and shocks
• Own price and relative prices to other
commodities that can be produced in
agroecological zones
• Changes in costs of production
• Changing labour costs and ease of mechanization
• Long term climate trends
• Floods and droughts
• Changes in land suitability and land
degradation
• IMPACT OF PEST AND DISEASE

6. How much cassava is currently grown in Asia? How much next year?
• National statistics
typically 2 years out
of date.
• Difficult to
disaggregate to lower
administration levels
due to traditional
reporting processes.
• Cases of ‘political’
statistical reporting
to achieve policy
objectives.0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4 1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Areaofcassavaproduction(Millionha)
Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Thailand Viet Nam
Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Other
Indonesia continues to decline
Determined on relative prices
Expansion speed based on prices
FAO Stats

7. Value of cassava trade and relative importance of cassava
starch in global trade
Source: Comtrade
Global trade largely is Southeast Asia exporting to East Asia and Southeast Asia
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Valueofexports(BillionUSD)
Cassava starch Cassava (fresh&dried)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Valueofexports(BillionUSD)
Other
Potato starch
Wheat starch
Corn starch
Cassava starch

8. 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Valueofcassavaexports(billionusd)
Value of cassava exports (2009-2017)
Total (USD) China
A billion dollar export crop for Vietnam for the past 6 years
• A billion dollar USD export earner
for Vietnam for starch and chips
• Domestic utilisation in
• MSG,
• Paper and cardboard
• Animal feed (chips and starch)
• Noodles
• Sweeteners and syrups
• Traditional food

9. Rising incomes in Asia: changing diets and consumption
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
GDPpercapita(constant2010US$)
WorldBank Stats
Malaysia
China
Indonesia
Thailand East Asia
(-pacific)
World
Averages hide rural
poverty, particularly in
marginal upland areas

10. Demand for animal feed in Vietnam (not self-sufficient)
Consumption of meat per capita
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Valueofimports(BillionUSD)
Maize (1005) Soy (1201)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
Foodsupplyquantity(kg/capita/yr)
Pigmeat Poultry Meat
Bovine Meat Mutton & Goat Meat
Import of maize and soy
FAO Stats
Vietnam imported
$3.2 Billion USD of
animal feed in 2017

11. Sweeteners
44%
Monosodiu
m Gultamate
(MSG)
18%
Whole Salers
13%
Modified
Starch
10%
Paper
7%
Tapioca
Pearls
4%
Textile
1%
Other
3%
Domestic utilisation of starch in Thailand (14.5% Root Equivalents)
Source: TTTA
Sweetener
30%
MSG
17%
Wholesaler
15%
Modified
Starch
10%
Paper
6%
Sago
4%
Textiles
1%
Ethanol
15% Other
2%
2017 – 1.66 Million MT Starch2015 – 1.495 Million MT Starch

12. Vietnam trade in syrups, sweeteners and fermentation
products
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Valueofimports(MillionUSD)
D-glucitol (sorbitol)
Chemically pure fructose
Glucose, glucose syrup
(20-50 % dry weight
fructose)
Other fructose and
fructose syrup, <50 % by
dry weight of fructose
Glucose, glucose syrup,
< 20 % fructose
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Export ImportTradevalue(MillionUSD)
Glutamic acid and its
salts
Lysine and its esters
Comtrade
Import of sweeteners Trade in Glutamic acid (MSG+) & Lysine

13. Market uncertainty goes with being part of a global market

14. The regional value chain for cassava products involves large amounts of
cross border trade

15. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
ThaiImportValuefromCambodia(MillionUSD)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
VietnamimportsfromCambodia(MillionUSD)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Thailand
2017 = 281.7 million USD
Vietnam
2017 = 282.2 million USD
Cumulative monthly value of imports of cassava (fresh or dried)

16. Including large volumes of planting material moving around the region
FANTASTIC IN THE ABSENCE OF PEST AND DISEASE

17. Smallholders cassava farmers part of a larger global carbohydrate market
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
USDPERMT
Difference US Gulf Maize CNF China + VAT
Chinese Futures (DCE) US Gulf Maize (FOB)
Large stockpile remains:
Rabobank still forecasts a
230m MT of stocks
Reduction
in price
support
Removal
of scheme

18. Cassava root and starch prices in Thailand and Indonesia
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Domesticstarch(USD/t)
Rootprice(USD/t)
Lampung Roots ($US/MT) Indonesia Starch (East Java)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
Freshroot25%(USD/T)
StarchFOBBangkok(USD/T)
Cassava Starch (FOB Bangkok) Roots USD/t (25%)
Thailand Indonesia
Reduction in planted area
Flooding in Thailand
Maize price in China
DISEASE ?

19. Logistics and freight cost are important (back freight helps)
$30MT
$15-20/t +
$10-20 truck and clearance

20. Comparison between Thai and Indonesian prices
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Difference(Thai-Domestic@Factorygate)
StarchPrice(USD/t)
Difference Thai Starch (FOB Bangkok)
Indonesia Starch (East Java) Thai + Freight
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Difference(Thai-Lampung)
Rootprice(USD/t)
Difference Lampung Roots ($US/MT) Thai Roots ($US/MT)
Fresh roots
Starch

21. Cumulative monthly exports from Thailand and Vietnam to Indonesia
(million USD)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
ThailandcassavastarchexportstoIndonesia
(MillionUSD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
VietnamcassavastarchexportstoIndonesia
(MillionUSD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Thailand Vietnam

22. Difference in Thai cassava and US maize starch
• Cassava starch has again become
a relatively more expensive feed
stock for deep processing
• Eg. Manufacture of sweeteners
• Short term options for
Indonesian deep processors to
remain competitive
• Use alternative feed stock (maize)
• Import processed products (glucose etc).
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-16
Apr-17
Sep-17
Feb-18
USD/MT
Difference
Tapioca starch (Super High-Grade) FOB Bangkok
Corn starch, Midwest
2012 2018

23. Biofuel prices and root equivalent price
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
Oct-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
Feb-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Jun-17
Oct-17
Feb-18
USD/Litre
Root cost in Ethanol (Indonesia) Root cost in Ethanol (Thai) CBOT Ethanol (USD/litre)

24. Smallholder livelihood outcomes impacted by these global market
trends and shocks

26. Grown by upland farmers to support livelihood security
(Eastern Cambodia)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Chitr_borie Siem_bouk Snuol Total
Riel/Year
Millions
Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income
Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income
6m Riel = $1500 USD
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
Income Quartiles
Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income
Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
Income Quartiles
Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income
Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income
Gross total income % share of total income % share of cash income

27. Grown by upland farmers to support livelihood security
(Lao PDR)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
Income Quartiles
Total Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income
Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
Income Quartiles
Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income
Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
KIP/Year
Millions
Total Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income
Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income
20m Kip = $2350 USD
Gross total income % share of total income % share of cash income

28. Grown by upland farmers to support livelihood security
(DakLak Province - Vietnam)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Cukty Dang kang Ea sar Ea so Total
VND/Year
Millions
Total Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income
Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income
Coffee
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Cassava Coffee Other crops Livestock Off-farm Income
Sugarcane
40m Kip = $1745 USD
Gross total income % share of cash income
Marginal land &
Limited resources

29. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Freshroot(USD/t)
Jan-17 Apr-18
Farm gate = $28
Large price uncertainly - Fresh root prices at collection points & factory
25% SC
30% SC
30% SC

30. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Kratie Stung Treng Bolikhamxay Sayabouly Dak Lak Son La
Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam
USD/T(Farmgatefreshroot)
Shut down price
Lowest price
Most likely price
Best price
Farmer experience and perception of farm gate prices (past 5 years)
Survey conducted in July – October 2017

31. Adding another level of production risk from emerging
pest and disease will significant impacts rural
livelihoods, industry and national economies

32. Cassava witches broom disease

34. Conclusion
1. Market and production risk contribute to the vulnerability of smallholder cassava
farmers in Asia – debt, distressed land sales, migration by necessity, and other
undesirable livelihood choices… (collection of UXO, logging, etc).
2. An understanding of the global market context in which localised cassava value
chains operate (farmer-trader-processor) helps recognize the market risk that
farmers and processors are exposed to – but timely information and decision
support tools are necessary.
3. The addition of disease pressure will impact the competitiveness of smallholder
cassava farmers in the global carbohydrate market
4. The poorest households in communities are the most reliant on cassava for their
livelihoods and the less able to quickly adapt their livelihood portfolio in the face of
new constraints.

35. Join the conversation at : https://www.facebook.com/groups/1462662477369426/
ACIAR Cassava Value Chain and Livelihood Program

37. Thank you!