Three messages today… 1. Strategy never dies; it just mutates! 2. Strategy is an ongoing learning process 3. The best way of learning is doing

1. John Sykes Perth, WA
Allan Trench 23rd July 2018

2. We’re not the first to say this…
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
• According to BCG classical strategy includes:
– An annual planning process with clear goals and performance incentives
– Rigorous performance management of individuals and units
– A cohesive culture focused on results
– Standardized training and operating procedures for frontline staff
– Limited discretion at the frontline
– An effective set of analysts at the centre
• But this requires a level of predictability and control seldom present,
along with a benign environment considerate of the time and effort of
careful planning;
• So ‘classical strategy’ has its place, but usually different ‘styles’ of
strategy are often required;
• And these different ‘styles’ require profoundly different organization
structures and behaviours, skills, corporate processes, and
performance frameworks.

3. 1. Strategy never dies;
it just mutates!
Three messages today…
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
2. Strategy is an ongoing
learning process
3. The best way of
learning is doing
…knowing your strategy
persona will help
…so we’ll show you some
shortcuts to get going
…so we’ll look at this a bit
more.

4. John Sykes Perth, WA
Allan Trench 23rd July 2018

5. The ‘strategy is dead & we killed it’ discourse
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
• Strategic planning as a formal
analytical process has received much
scholarly, practitioner and popular
criticism;
• Henry Mintzberg is a key scholarly
critic;
• Pierre Wack, a strategic planner at
Shell replaced inadequate ‘planning’
with ‘scenarios’ at the time of the
1970’s oil crises;
• In the popular imagination the role of
Robert McNamara in the Vietnam War
is the ‘planning school’ legacy;
• In case the lessons were forgotten,
the early 21st century saw both
political and financial disasters as a
result of inadequate planning
processes.
Unmentioned source: Freedman, 2013, Strategy: A History; Images: Amazon (book covers), Wikipedia, Wikipedia, Wikipedia, Huff Post

6. The ‘strategy is meaningless’ discourse
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
Most of what we do as ‘strategy’ is not strategy:
The lack of meaning opens corporate strategy up to
(well-earned) ridicule:
Images: Amazon

7. Now try searching ‘strategy is dead’…
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
…and about 166,000,000 results (in 0.22 seconds)

8. The ‘new’ digital version of ‘strategy is dead’
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
“The world is moving too fast for strategy.
Industry boundaries are blurring, new entrants
and technologies are emerging in unexpected
places.”
Customers prefer excitement to continuity. In the
midst of all this rapid change, strategic
positioning in an industry is meaningless.
Several big trends like digitalization and the
internet of things are massively disrupting
established players.
What matters is agility and continual innovation.”
Source: Strebel (2017)

9. …and your digital strategy is dead too!
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
• IT is frustrated that the business isn’t being a
good partner…
• The business is frustrated that IT isn’t being a
good partner…
• Marketing is excited/overwhelmed/scared by the
wave of digital problems/opportunities…
• The CEO believes digital is important, and the
company is doing lots of digital “stuff”…
• The CEO believes digital is important, but the
company is not doing much with digital…
• The board is asking the CEO what the company
is doing about digital…
• A competitor just released a new website /
mobile app / Instagram post / shiny object…
Sources: Duebury (2016); Al-Greene (2013)

10. So will ‘strategy’ be replaced by A.I.? Not yet!
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
“…banks including Goldman Sachs, ING, and UBS all took a stab
at a forecasting what would happen, generally by applying
techniques traditionally used in financial analysis and
economic modelling to soccer.”
“…two chose Spain, one chose Germany, and one chose
Brazil.”
“Goldman Sachs used… machine learning to run 200,000
models, mining data on team and player attributes… then
simulated 1 million variations of the tournament…”
“UBS’ modelling…. 10,000 simulations of the tournament.”
“ING… ruthlessly capitalistic… using the overall value of each
team in the tournament to predict the winner.”
Nomura, the only bank to pick the winner, [applied] portfolio
theory… efficient markets hypothesis… value of players…
momentum… and historical performance…
“Banks were afflicted by the sheer unpredictability of this
year’s tournament…” [where have we heard this before?]

11. A.I. has not heard of ‘rope-a-dope’…
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
SPAIN vs RUSSIA
25 Attempts 6
9 On Target 1
6 Corners 5
1 Offsides 1
7 Tackles 16
1137 Passes 284
91% Accuracy 72%
5 Fouls 19
1 Yellows 2
0 Reds 0
85 miles Distance 91 miles
1 GOALS 1
Russia win 4-3 on penalties
Stats: Fox Sports; Images: Deadspin, Getty, EWN, NDTV

12. …and for those sick of the football [soccer]
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
Images: Mingor; Wikipedia; Musement
“West Perth… named “analytically, the best place on Earth”
by international analytics company SAS.”
“The company used an algorithm to crunch 5 million data
points to compare 148,233 cities in 193 countries.”
“So-called “machine learning” then mined this information for
patterns and relationships that define, analytically speaking,
the ultimate paradise on Earth.”
“And that paradise was West Perth. Seriously.”
“[the other] top 3 in descending order [were] Feijenoord in
Rotterdam and New York.”
2nd Feijenoord, Rotterdam
3rd New York

13. Strategy is NOT dead!
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
• Strategy is dead and
lack of meaning killed it:
• There are too many
theories, tools, ideas,
practices [and none seem
to work]
• Everything is a strategy
and has a strategy
• Strategy is just a
‘buzzword’
• However, most
‘strategies’ are not
strategies!
• Strategy is dead and we
killed it:
• Strategists often miss the
‘human side’ (in the last
‘strategy’ I lost my job)
• Strategists are
hierarchical
• Strategists miss the point
• Strategy away days are
just a free golfing trip
• However, this is an old
fashioned view of
strategy!
• Strategy is dead and
‘digital’ killed it:
• And if ‘digital’ doesn’t kill
it, AI, or automation, or
some other innovation will
• Innovation and
organisational agility is
more important than
strategy
• However, this IS
‘strategy’ and we
haven’t automated
strategy yet anyway!

14. Strategic thinking improves via mutation!
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
New
strategy
schools
Strategy by design
Strategic planning
Corporate culture
Strategic management
Strategic positioning
Strategic power
Strategic learning
Entrepreneurialism
Strategic configuration
Strategic environment
Cognitive strategy
Currently fashionable
(in our opinion)
Source: Mintzeberg, 2009, Strategy Safari; Whittington, 2016, Changing Strategy

15. John Sykes Perth, WA
Allan Trench 23rd July 2018

16. Level 1: Just Do It!
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
‘Anyone can be a strategist…’
‘There are no regulations…’
‘The strategy profession is permeable…’
‘Strategy roles are often temporary…’
‘Strategy is often not the main focus of the role…’
- Richard Whittington (2016)
Source: Whittington (2016); Images: Wikipedia, BoardGameGeek, Sykes, Games Nostalgia

17. Maybe apply some rational and logic thinking
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
• How do you put a giraffe into a
refrigerator?
• How do you put an elephant
into a refrigerator?
• The Lion King is hosting an
animal conference. All the
animals attend except one.
Which animal does not attend?
• There is a river you must
cross. But it is inhabited by
crocodiles. How do you
manage it?
• Around 90% of
professionals tested
get all answers
wrong [before it
became an internet
meme]
• Many pre-school
children get several
answers correct

18. Add structure, focus and leverage
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
“A good strategy draws
power from focusing
minds, energy, and action.
That focus, channelled at
the right moment onto a
pivotal objective, can
produce a cascade of
favourable outcomes…
Finding such crucial pivot
points and concentrating
force on them is the secret
of strategic leverage.”
- Rumelt (2011)
• Keep focusing in
• Prioritise your effort
on what is the most
important ‘lever’
• Ask “so what”…
• But also ask what
you’ve forgotten
• This is the key to
working efficiently
Problem
statement
Sub-issue 1a
Sub-issue 1b
Sub-issue 2a
Sub-issue 2b
Issue 1
Issue 2
Issue 3
For example, with production
problems, remove non-
bottleneck equipment

19. But beware the ‘Kobayashi Maru’
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
Images: Meme Generator, startrek.com, Meme Generator
“Victorious warriors win first and then to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”
- Sun Tzu, ~500BC

20. Are you a ‘Casual Consultant’?
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
• Did you get three or more
of logic questions right?
• Have you ever done a
‘strategy’ assignment at
work?
• Do you play sport, or
strategy board/computer
games, or similar?
• Then you have some of the
characteristics of the ‘Casual
Consultant’
• Add a ‘C’ to your strategic
learner profile
Strengths
• Practical
• Logical and rational
• Good domain knowledge
• Good tacit knowledge
Weaknesses
• Tendency to rush into things
• Doesn’t know what they don’t know
• Lacks explicit knowledge
• Lacks broader experiences
• Lacks ‘unconventional’ thinking

21. Level 2: Deployment of tools
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
Ansoff
matrix
Source: Evans, 2013, Key Strategy Tools

22. The problem with strategy tools
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
• You can run a ‘discounted cash flow’ (DCF) analysis on the
A$3 million renovation of a brothel in the remote mining town
of Kalgoorlie, targeting a new clientele of tourists (paying
$25) who are interested in the town’s history and culture.
• But is the even the right tool?
– What about diversification?
– What about strategic coherence?
– What about the moral case?
• DCF is a tool you can use in this situation, but probably not
the right one.
Mining students study brothel finances
THIS WEEK Strictly Boardroom shares a personal story on which the statute of
limitations has now well and truly expired.
“…it is tempting, if the only tool you have is a hammer, to
treat everything as if it were a nail.”
- Abraham Maslow, ‘Law of the Hammer’, 1966
Quote: Wikipedia

23. Are you a ‘Mediocre MBA’?
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
• Did you know six or more of
the strategy tools?
• Have you used a strategy tool
at work?
• Have you ever designed your
own strategy tool or
framework?
• Do you have an MBA,
commerce degree, or similar?
• Then you have some of the
characteristics of the ‘Mediocre
MBA’
• Add an ‘M’ to your strategic
learner profile
Strengths
• Practical
• Problem solver
• Good explicit knowledge
• Good business knowledge
Weaknesses
• Rigid thinking
• Can be lost without a tool
• Can use a tool the wrong way
• Can lack tacit & domain
knowledge
• Lacks ‘unconventional’ thinking

24. Level 3: Contextual thinking (and reading)
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
Bill Gates reads 50
books per year and
writes reviews on
his blog ‘gatesnotes’
Mark Zuckerberg’s ‘reading
challenge’ in 2015 was to
read 26 books
Warren
Buffett reads
5-6 hours per
day (mainly
10K’s) but is
also a fan of
biography
Sources: The New York Times, Farnham Street, gatesnotes, Facebook; Images: The New York Times, Wikipedia, Wikipedia

25. Is your favourite business book here?
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
Influences: Sykes, Business Insider, Executive Style, HuffPost; Images: Amazon

26. Are you a ‘Buzzword Boss’?
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
• Have you read six or more of
the business books?
• Do you manage people at
work?
• Have you ever written or
presented about business or
strategy?
• Then you have some of the
characteristics of the ‘Buzzword
Boss’
• Add an ‘B’ to your strategic
learner profile
Strengths
• Leader & influencer
• Good tacit & domain
knowledge
• Good business knowledge
• Synthesiser
• Sometimes unconventional
Weaknesses
• Doesn’t know what they don’t
know
• Overconfidence
• Knowledge may not be
generalisable

27. Level 4: Research and theorisation
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
1. "What Is Strategy?" by Michael E. Porter (1996)
2. "The Five Competitive Forces That Shape Strategy" by Michael E. Porter (2008)
3. "Building Your Company's Vision" by Jim Collins & Jerry I. Porras (1996)
4. "Reinventing Your Business Model" by Mark W. Johnson, Clayton M. Christensen & Henning
Kagermann (2008)
5. "Blue Ocean Strategy" by W. Chan Kim & Renee Mauborgne (2004)
6. "The Secrets to Successful Strategy Execution" by Ilona Steffen, Niko Canner & Gary
Neilson (2012)
7. "Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management System" by Robert S. Kaplan
& David P. Norton (2007)
8. "Transforming Corner-Office Strategy into Frontline Action" by Orit Gadiesh & James L.
Gilbert (2001)
9. "Turning Great Strategy into Great Performance" by Michael Mankins & Richard Steele
(2005)
10. "Who Has the D? How Clear Decision Roles Enhance Organizational Performance“ by
Paul Rogers & Marcia W. Blenko (2006)

28. Are you an ‘Abstract Academic’?
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
• Have you read six or more of
these classic papers?
• Have you written a book on
business strategy?
• Do you read CMR, LRP or SMJ?
• Have you written a book on
strategy?
• Are you a business PhD or
academic?
• Then you have some of the
characteristics of the ‘Abstract
Academic’
• Add an ‘A’ to your strategic learner
profile
Strengths
• Excellent explicit knowledge
• Good theoriser
• Sometimes unconventional
• Excellent researcher
Weaknesses
• Poor at practice
• Little domain or tacit knowledge
• Favours theory over all
• Knowledge may not be
generalisable
• Knowledge may not be relevant

29. What’s your strategy learning persona?
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
To get your strategy learning
postnominals just add the letters
which you matched from the
tests:
• C for ‘Casual Consultant’
• M for ‘Mediocre MBA’
• B for ‘Buzzword Boss’
• A for ‘Abstract Academic’
What are you?
And for full disclosure…
Prof. Allan Trench, CMB John Sykes, CBA

30. There is a serious message to this fun…
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
The
‘mediocre’
MBA
The
‘abstract’
Academic
The
‘casual’
Consultant
The
‘buzzword’
Boss
Our Learning & Doing Strategy Matrix…
Tacit Explicit
to
knowledge
Tacit
Explicit
from
knowledge
…is Nonaka & Takeuchi’s ‘Knowledge Spiral’
Tacit Explicit
to
knowledge
Tacit
Explicit
from
knowledge
Learning
by doing
Dialogue
Linking
explicit
knowledge
Field
building
Source: Evans, 2013, Key Strategy Tools

31. John Sykes Perth, WA
Allan Trench 23rd July 2018

32. Short cuts allow you to ‘do and learn’
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
“A good plan, violently
executed now, is better than
a perfect plan next week.”
“No plan of operations extends with
any certainty beyond the first contact
with the main hostile force.”
“Everybody has a plan
until they get punched
in the mouth.”
Gen. George S. Patton
(1885-1945)
F.M. Helmuth K.B.G. von Moltke
(1800-1891)
Mike Tyson
(1966- )

33. Your next strategic decision looks more like (a) or (b) for:
Land
a) “We’ll pick up something opportunistically – and then see whether it is worth hanging on to.”
b) “We will seek to acquire a project as part of our existing 2020 business plan.”
Labour
a) “No doubt someone who just appears – and seems a bright-spark full of new ideas.”
b) “Someone we know as a safe pair of hands and have previously worked with. We already know who we want.”
Capital
a) “There seems lots of new opportunities in hybrid financing and crowd-sourced funding. Maybe we’ll give them a go.”
b) “A sophisticated investor placement to a select number of long-standing shareholders. It’s already underway.”
Technology
a) “We get lots of offers to try new technologies for free, if we provide feedback. We’ll probably do that.”
b) “We'll continue to use our existing technology providers. They are a reliable partner.”
A Smith-Christensen-Mintzberg shortcut…
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench

34. • There are no right or wrong answers to any of the questions…
• The level of consensus about the answers will likely vary across your team too.
• However, a number of interesting strategic conversational points arise:
– Alignment: Are the decision-makers are aligned about where the company is now and where it is going?
– Reflection: Were the results were entirely as expected, or have some surprises arisen? Why?
– Assessment: How focused or broad is the company's strategy? How deliberate is this? Is it the right ‘blend'
going ahead?
– Opportunity: Are there any signals towards previously unseen, latent strategic opportunities?
• If you had not worked it out already, answers (a) sit in the realm of ‘emergent strategists’ but with an accompanying
higher risk-tolerance.
• Conversely, answers (b) are drawn more from the ‘classical strategists' and have an accompanying tendency
towards risk-aversion.
…it opens up questions about how we plan
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench

35. A George Orwell-Lean Startup shortcut…
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
1. What am I trying to say?
2. What words will express it?
3. What image or idiom will make it clearer?
4. Is this image fresh enough to have an effect?
5. Could I put it more shortly?
6. Have I said anything that is avoidably ugly?
-
1. Never use a metaphor, simile, or other figure of speech which
you are used to seeing in print.
2. Never use a long word where a short one will do.
3. If it is possible to cut a word out, always cut it out.
4. Never use the passive where you can use the active.
5. Never use a foreign phrase, a scientific word, or a jargon word if
you can think of an everyday English equivalent.
6. Break any of these rules sooner than say anything outright
barbarous.
1. What am I trying to do?
2. Will it generate revenue soon?
3. What will make it simpler?
4. Is this idea original enough to be innovative?
5. Could I do it more cheaply?
6. Am I doing anything avoidably ugly?
-
1. Never use an idea which you are used to seeing already.
2. Never construct a long plan where a short one will do.
3. If it is possible to make it simpler, always make it simpler.
4. Never default to the passive where you can be constructively
active.
5. Never use foreign concepts, or new scientific, or technological
solutions if you can think of an everyday equivalent.
6. Break any of these rules sooner than do anything outright
barbarous.

36. Strategy is a conversation and learning…
John Sykes Perth, WA 23rd July 2018
Allan Trench
• Strategy is a constantly mutating field – for the good;
• Strategy involves academics, students, professionals,
amateurs, and those forced to do it against their own will;
• Strategy is just as much about biology, ecology, political
science, history, chaos theory, psychology, anthropology,
warfare, and sport (to name a few) as it about organisations,
management, planning, and economics;
• There are thousands of tools, books, papers, ideas, concepts,
theories, buzzwords, etc.,
• Good strategists (a requirement on all of us) thus need to be
good at learning [not education] across multiple fields and
multiple places;
• Good strategists never miss an opportunity to learn,
synthesise and talk about what they’ve learnt about (the
‘shortcuts’) and hopefully learn some more…
• So let’s go have a ‘strategic conversation’…
…is Nonaka & Takeuchi’s ‘Knowledge Spiral’
Tacit Explicit
to
knowledge
Tacit
Explicit
from
knowledge
Learning
by doing
Dialogue
Linking
explicit
knowledge
Field
building
Sources: Evans, 2013, Key
Strategy Tools; Mintzberg,
2009, Strategy Safari; van der
Heijden, 1996, The Art of
Strategic Conversation