How to use RiskyProject software for project risk management and risk analysis in oil and gas industry.
For more information how to perform schedule risk analysis using RiskyProject software please visit Intaver Institute web site: http://www.intaver.com.
About Intaver Institute.
Intaver Institute Inc. develops project risk management and project risk analysis software. Intaver's flagship product is RiskyProject: project risk management software. RiskyProject integrates with Microsoft Project, Oracle Primavera, other project management software or can run standalone. RiskyProject comes in three configurations: RiskyProject Lite, RiskyProject Professional, and RiskyProject Enterprise.
Strategize a Smooth Tenant-to-tenant Migration and Copilot Takeoff
RiskyProject for Oil and Gas Industry
1. How to Perform Project
Risk Management for Oil
and Gas Projects
Intaver Institute Inc.
303, 6707, Elbow Drive S.W, Calgary, AB, Canada
Tel: +1(403)692-2252
Fax: +1(403)459-4533
www.intaver.com
2. Introduction
• Intaver Institute Timeline
– 2002: Established
– 2004: V.1 RiskyProject
– 2009: v 3 Integrated Risk Register
– 2012: v 5
• RiskyProject
– Full Project Risk Management
Lifecycle
– Integrated Risk Register
– Risk Matrix, Risk Planning
+
– Quantitative Monte Carlo Cost and
Schedule Risk Analysis
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Clients
3. Gorgon Natural Gas Project
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Project Cost Estimate in Billions A$
Date of cost estimate
A three-train liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility on Barrow Island
(Australia) that will produce 15.6 million metric tons of LNG per year.
4. Corporate Portfolio Management Process
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Project Cost and
Schedule risks and
uncertainties
Geological and other
Uncertainties affecting
production
Price Uncertainties
Other Risks and
Uncertainties:
-Political risks
-Uncertainties in
Royalties regimes
-….
Economic
Analysis of the
Projects
Corporate
Portfolio
Management
Strategic
Decision
Quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis is an
important component of portfolio management
5. Risk Management Affects Project Profitability
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Full circle cost of gas
$/Mcf
Quantitative risk analysis provides realistic risk adjusted and risk mitigated cost estimates
6. Identifying and Managing Critical Risks is Key
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Risk
Quantitative risk analysis identifies and prioritizes critical risks
8. Tim
e
DependentCosts
CostRisk
Time is Money: Cost and Schedule Risks
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• Schedule risk drives
Costs due to time
dependent resource
costs
• 40% -70% cost risk is
schedule driven
Schedule
risk
9. Input 1: Project Schedule
Input 2: List of Risks (Risk Register)
Assign Risks to Project
Tasks and Resources
Perform
Analysis
Risk Events Approach
10. Schedule
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Import project schedule from project management tool
(Primavera, MS Project, etc..
11. Costs
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Schedules can include cost data for quantitative risk analysis of fixed costs
12. Resources
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Resources with rates are loaded with the project schedule to allow for risk
analysis of time dependent costs
13. Risk Register
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Project risk register is integrated to the project schedule and
cost
14. Risk Assignment
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Task R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6
Installing Microsoft Seismic
monitoring
x x
Deliver frac fleet and install
equipment
x
Deliver rig and equipment x
Well 1,2,3 (share common risks) x
Rig Mobilization x
Drilling x x x x
Installing Service Rig x
Completion (8 stages fracing) x x
Risks are assigned to project activities
15. Risk Assignment Interface
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30 % chance that risk
causes a delay and
increase in cost of drilling
Risk Assigned to task
‘Drilling’
Risk probability and cost and schedule impact are assigned to
activities
16. Run Monte Carlo Simulation
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Monte Carlo simulation prioritizes risk based on impact on cost, schedule or
other parameters
17. Results of Analysis
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Monte Carlo simulation results for cost and schedule can be viewed as
histograms or cumulative probability
18. Risk Adjusted Project Schedule
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Schedule with
risks
Schedule without
risks
Arrows show risk
assignments
19. Project Cost
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Schedule with
risks
Schedule without
risks
Results of quantitative cost risk analysis are shown on the Cost view
20. Risk Planning – Mitigation Plan
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Risk response plans can be plotted on a Risk Mitigation Waterfall chart
21. Pre and Post Mitigation Risk Scores
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Pre-
mitigation
Post-
mitigation
22. Risk Planning
Risk: Mechanical Problem with instrument
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Post Mitigation $16, 734, 906Pre-Mitigation Cost 17, 178, 397
Risk response plans can reduce the expected cost of the project
23. RiskyProject Enterprise
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Enterprise Risk
Database:
Schedules,
Risks,
Mitigation Plans
RiskyProject Professional
RiskyProject Lite
RiskyProject Web
24. Future Reading
• Virine, L. and M. Trumper. 2007 Project Decisions: The Art and Science. VA: Management
Concepts
• Virine, L. and M. Trumper. 2013. Project Think: Why Good Managers Make Poor Project
Choices. England: Gower Publishing
• P. Leach. 2005. Late and Over Budget: Why Projects Always Seem to Take Longer and
Cost More Than Planned. Projects & Profits, Vol. V Issue - XI, November 2005
• http://www.project decisions.org
• http://www.intaver.com/index-whitepapers.html
• http://www.risk-doctor.com/
• http://www.projectrisk.com
Contact
Michael Trumper
mtrumper@intaver.com
403.692.2252
Intaver Institute Inc.
www.intaver.com
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Hinweis der Redaktion
To model schedule driven cost, we have included high level resources that have been assigned to specific tasks.