One of the most important sustainability questions we face today relates to food. Everyone needs it, but we still face undernutrition in large parts of the world, while in other regions overnutrition is a growing problem. Can we feed our growing world population? Do we have the natural resources to supply the global population with their demand in 2050? My research shows that we cannot feed the global population a Western diet; a diet high in meat and of which a lot is wasted. Would you change your diet? Ingrid Odegard

1. The Future of Food Scenarios and the Effects on Natural Resource Use in Agriculture

2. Introduction

3. Scope What are the global and regional consequences, with respect to naturalresource use in agriculture, for four food scenarios evaluated for the year 2050? Introduction

4. Scope What are the global and regionalconsequences, with respect to resource use in agriculture, for four food scenarios evaluated for the year 2050? OECD90 REF ASIA ALM Introduction

5. Scope Commodity groups Cereals Fruit Roots andtubers Pulses Oil crops Sugar crops Vegetables Meat Beef Pork Poultry Eggs Milk Includes feed 93% of global kcal Introduction

6. Scenario Methodology Whatif…? NotThe Truth or The Future Variety Consistency Methodology

7. Population Economic Development Policy Technological Development Diet DrivingForces Methodology

8. Meat Consumption & Economic Development 77 kg 17 kg 2200 US$ 9700 US$ Keyzer, 2005 Methodology

9. Food System Model Virtual Resource Content Methodology

10. Virtual Resource Content Input requirements Land: ton/ha (yield) Water: m3/ton Fertilizer: kg/ton (N, P2O5, K2O) Specifiedfor: Commodity groups Regions Methodology

11. Scenario Study economy 2900 kcal 2900 kcal regionalization globalization 2800 kcal 2800 kcal environment Methodology

12. Whatif.. …there is a global shift to a Western diet? …regions have tobeself-sufficient? …we allbecomevegetarian? …we shift to low-input management? Methodology

13. Apparent Consumption and Intake 2005 apparent consumption 2005 intake Results

14. Production (ton/year) Results

15. Land Use (ha/year) VS+S+MS VS+S Results

16. Land Use Results

17. Water Use Critical water stress 3 Moderate water stress Results

18. Water Use in A2 – Full World 3 OECD90 REF ALM ASIA Results

19. Fertilizer Use – N Years of Potassium A1: 2 A2: 66 B1: 100 B2: 135 Years of Phosporous A1: 55 A2: 121 B1: 254 B2: 211 Results

20. Scenario Conclusions A1 – Affluent World LANDWATER FERTILIZER A2 – Full World LANDWATER FERTILIZER B1 – VegetarianWorld LAND WATER FERTILIZER B2 – Low-Input World LANDWATER FERTILIZER Conclusions

21. Conclusions Strong negativecorrelation between land and fertilizer use Water use problematic Not enough resources to feed the global population a Western diet Conclusions

22. Recommendations Virtual Fertilizer Content & Organic Agriculture Trade & Water Use Animal product consumption & culture and religion Conclusions

23. Discussion Wouldyou change yourdiet? Discussion