Livestock Master Plan (LMP): Roadmaps for the Ethiopia Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II—2015-2020)

ILRI
ILRI-- um ILRI
Livestock Master Plan (LMP): Roadmaps for the Ethiopia Growth and
Transformation Plan (GTP II - 2015-2020)
The Livestock State Ministry, MOA and ILRI
Barry Shapiro, ILRI
Rural Economic Development and Food Security Sector Working Group Broader Platform Meeting,
Ministry of Agriculture, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2 July 2015
Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) &
Livestock Master Plan (LMP) Process
• Making a LMP required quantitative sector analysis – creating a
sector model for long-term livestock sector analysis (LSA)
• Over 50 specialists were consulted on data and parameters for
animal productivity, value chains and cross-cutting issues
• A national data base and baseline (depicting the current
situation – 2013 and 2015) were created
• Potential interventions were identified– combined policy and
technology -- and tested ex-ante over the long-term (15-year)
and 5 year planning
• Foresight scenario analysis was done on the interventions
A Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) was also set up and met
regularly to give advice on the project activities and outputs
and oversee progress – created buy-in and ownership
LSA pre-test of possible interventions against
indicators of GOE Goals for GTP I & II
Potential LMP intervention impacts were assessed against
Ethiopian Government development objectives for GTP II --
measured by livestock development indicators using the livestock
sector model built on a herd model.
The GTP objectives are the following:
•Reducing poverty (household income)
•Achieving food security (production-consumption balance)
•Contributing to economic growth (GDP)
•Contributing to exports (foreign exchange earnings)
•Contributing to climatic sustainability (GHG emissions)
Development of the Ethiopia LSA was a fully consultative process
to get expert advice and stakeholder ownership – ensure
agreement on approach, data, parameters, and results
The Six Key LMP Commodity Value Chains
and cross-cutting activities
Cow dairy
1.Improved Family Dairy systems (IFD) in MRS and MRD dairy belts
(peri-urban)
2.Specialized Dairy Production (SP Dairy)
Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, goats and camels
3. Improved Family Red Meat-Milk (ITMM) systems in all production
zones (MRS, MRD and LG)
4. Specialized Beef Cattle Feedlots (SPF)
Poultry
•Improved Family Poultry (IFP) in all production zones (MRS, MRD and
LG Agro-pastoral)
•Specialized Poultry (SPP) – Broilers and Layers
Cross-cutting activities within each value chain
3.Animal Health
4.Animal Feed
5.Animal Genetics
6.Policy
Impacts of Investments in Improved Family Dairy (IFD) in MRS
and Specialized Dairy (SPD):
Internal Rates of Return (IRR) over 20-Years , 2013-2028
33
24
0
10
20
30
20-YearIRR(%)
Small Medium
Panel A: Improved Family Dairy
29
43
0
10
20
30
40
Small Medium
Panel B: Specialized Dairy
In MRD, AI & Synch
worked in per-urban
areas and milk sheds
In MRS AI & Synch
works everywhere
•IRR =33%
•Milk production
increases 8 times
•GDP contribution
increases 10 times
Impacts at national and regional levels of AI &
Synchronization
In LG, AI & Synch
Not right for
breed
improvement
Overall AI & Synch Results:
•93% increase in national milk
production (4 B to 7.9 B liters)
•Cow milk contribution to GDP
increases from 28 B to 52.9 B ETB.
•2.5 B liter surplus
Similar results for red meat and poultry
y:
• Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, goat and
camel
– Improved Traditional Red Meat-Milk (ITMM) very
profitable in all production zones (MRS, MRD and LG)
– Specialized Beef Cattle Feedlots (SPF) very profitable
• Poultry
– Improved Family Poultry (IFP) very profitable in ALL
production zones (MRS, MRD, LG Agro-pastoral)
– Specialized Poultry (SPP) very profitable – Broilers and
Layers
Annual farm-level increases in income due to proposed
investment interventions in family cattle, sheep, goats and camels
ET Birr
LSA results changed MoA opinion on domestic and
export potential of livestock & products
Panel A: Red meat
C
PWO
PW
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2013 2018 2023 2028
Panel B: Chicken meat
PW
C
PWO
0
200
400
600
2013 2018 2023 2028
Panel C: All meat
PWO
PW
C
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2013 2018 2023 2028
Panel D: All milk
PWO
C
PW
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2013 2018 2023 2028
Panel E: Eggs
PW
C
PWO0
5000
10000
15000
2013 2018 2023 2028
Source: Based on LSIPT results.
Consumption
Production with intervention
Production without interventiion
Legend:
PW=
C=
PWO=
Production-Consumption
Balance
Framework of the LMP roadmaps -- based
on LSA results
• Baseline for 2015
• 5-year GTP II development targets (2015-2020)
• Challenges and strategies
• Ex-ante testing of LMP interventions to achieve targets
• LMP impacts – Return on Investment (ROI), GDP,
production-consumption balance
• Investment requirements (financial and human
resources)
• Activities timeline and sequencing
• Complimentary success requirements (policy)
GDP contribution from LMP interventions for
milk, red meat, and chicken meat and eggs
(2020)
74,064
82,489
10,054
5,577
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Red meat (ETB
million)
All milk (ETB
million)
Egg (ETB million) Chicken meat (ETB
million)
Percentage increase in Red Meat production and CO2e emissions
from interventions with “business as usual” (BAU or LMP) and
CRGE offtake rates (%)
Percent (%)
GHG (CO2e ) emissions from BAU (without intervention) and with
interventions with LMP and CRGE offtake rates (in Mt ton)
What do LMP results mean for the GTP II
Government livestock development policy goals need to
avoid significant trade-offs:
•If invest in all LMP interventions GOE could eliminate
poverty in 2.35 million livestock keeping households
•Focus on poultry development to achieve better food
security, enable red meat exports, and lower GHG emissions
•Combination of cattle and poultry can lower domestic meat
prices, while increasing exports and foreign exchange
earnings
•Focus on dairy development to achieve food security in
domestic markets and also increase export earnings
Public (including donors) and Private investment
shares by major value chains (ETB Millions)
What is needed for the PRIVATE SECTOR to play its
investment role in GTP II
Success in these interventions during GTP II will require full
participation of the private sector:
•Value adding processing by Private Sector is crucial for success
•Need to attract and enable very substantial private investment in
livestock product production and processing
•Need dramatic improvement in the investment environment
(streamline investment process for agribusinesses)
•Land made available for livestock investments – production,
processing, growing animal feed, etc.
•Need more attractive incentives private investment -- subsidized
land leasing rates, low interest loans, tax holidays
LMP Research Priorities
Priority research areas to implement the LMP include:
• Selection to improve indigenous red meat animals and on-farm
record keeping
• Better cross-breeding of dairy cattle and small ruminants
• Improved family poultry and camel improvement
• How to manage/improve rangelands in pastoral areas
• Developing new poultry lines using indigenous and exotic breeds
• How to reduce animal traction and mechanization
• Ensuring that research has impact - learning how to scale up
technologies
• Impact assessment to support better policy decisions
• Improving seed and feed options for livestock producers
• How to improve livestock and livelihoods data, esp. in pastoral areas
The Core LMP Team – MOA, EIAR & ILRI
MoA Reaction to LMP
• The Agriculture Minister said “GOE will adopt and
implement the LMP”
• Livestock State Ministry owns the LSA, GTP II and
LMP
• Results taken as realistic, fact-based to inform
investment decisions (based on GOE criteria: poverty
reduction, food and nutrition security, or economic
growth, or combination of all)
• Committed to expand the use of the tool in planning,
policy analysis and research
Red Meat production from BAU (no investment) and with
intervention - with LMP and CRGE offtake rates (in tons)
Tons
Percentage increase in all meat production and CO2e emission
from interventions with BAU (LMP) and CRGE offtake rates (%)
Percent (%)
Percentage increase in Chicken Meat and Eggs production and
CO2e emission from interventions with BAU (LMP) and CRGE
offtake rates (%)
Percent (%)
Percentage increase in cow milk production and CO2e
emission from interventions with CRGE and BAU offtake rates
(%)
Percent (%)
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Livestock Master Plan (LMP): Roadmaps for the Ethiopia Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II—2015-2020)

  • 1. Livestock Master Plan (LMP): Roadmaps for the Ethiopia Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II - 2015-2020) The Livestock State Ministry, MOA and ILRI Barry Shapiro, ILRI Rural Economic Development and Food Security Sector Working Group Broader Platform Meeting, Ministry of Agriculture, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2 July 2015
  • 2. Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) & Livestock Master Plan (LMP) Process • Making a LMP required quantitative sector analysis – creating a sector model for long-term livestock sector analysis (LSA) • Over 50 specialists were consulted on data and parameters for animal productivity, value chains and cross-cutting issues • A national data base and baseline (depicting the current situation – 2013 and 2015) were created • Potential interventions were identified– combined policy and technology -- and tested ex-ante over the long-term (15-year) and 5 year planning • Foresight scenario analysis was done on the interventions A Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) was also set up and met regularly to give advice on the project activities and outputs and oversee progress – created buy-in and ownership
  • 3. LSA pre-test of possible interventions against indicators of GOE Goals for GTP I & II Potential LMP intervention impacts were assessed against Ethiopian Government development objectives for GTP II -- measured by livestock development indicators using the livestock sector model built on a herd model. The GTP objectives are the following: •Reducing poverty (household income) •Achieving food security (production-consumption balance) •Contributing to economic growth (GDP) •Contributing to exports (foreign exchange earnings) •Contributing to climatic sustainability (GHG emissions) Development of the Ethiopia LSA was a fully consultative process to get expert advice and stakeholder ownership – ensure agreement on approach, data, parameters, and results
  • 4. The Six Key LMP Commodity Value Chains and cross-cutting activities Cow dairy 1.Improved Family Dairy systems (IFD) in MRS and MRD dairy belts (peri-urban) 2.Specialized Dairy Production (SP Dairy) Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, goats and camels 3. Improved Family Red Meat-Milk (ITMM) systems in all production zones (MRS, MRD and LG) 4. Specialized Beef Cattle Feedlots (SPF) Poultry •Improved Family Poultry (IFP) in all production zones (MRS, MRD and LG Agro-pastoral) •Specialized Poultry (SPP) – Broilers and Layers Cross-cutting activities within each value chain 3.Animal Health 4.Animal Feed 5.Animal Genetics 6.Policy
  • 5. Impacts of Investments in Improved Family Dairy (IFD) in MRS and Specialized Dairy (SPD): Internal Rates of Return (IRR) over 20-Years , 2013-2028 33 24 0 10 20 30 20-YearIRR(%) Small Medium Panel A: Improved Family Dairy 29 43 0 10 20 30 40 Small Medium Panel B: Specialized Dairy
  • 6. In MRD, AI & Synch worked in per-urban areas and milk sheds In MRS AI & Synch works everywhere •IRR =33% •Milk production increases 8 times •GDP contribution increases 10 times Impacts at national and regional levels of AI & Synchronization In LG, AI & Synch Not right for breed improvement Overall AI & Synch Results: •93% increase in national milk production (4 B to 7.9 B liters) •Cow milk contribution to GDP increases from 28 B to 52.9 B ETB. •2.5 B liter surplus
  • 7. Similar results for red meat and poultry y: • Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, goat and camel – Improved Traditional Red Meat-Milk (ITMM) very profitable in all production zones (MRS, MRD and LG) – Specialized Beef Cattle Feedlots (SPF) very profitable • Poultry – Improved Family Poultry (IFP) very profitable in ALL production zones (MRS, MRD, LG Agro-pastoral) – Specialized Poultry (SPP) very profitable – Broilers and Layers
  • 8. Annual farm-level increases in income due to proposed investment interventions in family cattle, sheep, goats and camels ET Birr
  • 9. LSA results changed MoA opinion on domestic and export potential of livestock & products Panel A: Red meat C PWO PW 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2013 2018 2023 2028 Panel B: Chicken meat PW C PWO 0 200 400 600 2013 2018 2023 2028 Panel C: All meat PWO PW C 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2013 2018 2023 2028 Panel D: All milk PWO C PW 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2013 2018 2023 2028 Panel E: Eggs PW C PWO0 5000 10000 15000 2013 2018 2023 2028 Source: Based on LSIPT results. Consumption Production with intervention Production without interventiion Legend: PW= C= PWO= Production-Consumption Balance
  • 10. Framework of the LMP roadmaps -- based on LSA results • Baseline for 2015 • 5-year GTP II development targets (2015-2020) • Challenges and strategies • Ex-ante testing of LMP interventions to achieve targets • LMP impacts – Return on Investment (ROI), GDP, production-consumption balance • Investment requirements (financial and human resources) • Activities timeline and sequencing • Complimentary success requirements (policy)
  • 11. GDP contribution from LMP interventions for milk, red meat, and chicken meat and eggs (2020) 74,064 82,489 10,054 5,577 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Red meat (ETB million) All milk (ETB million) Egg (ETB million) Chicken meat (ETB million)
  • 12. Percentage increase in Red Meat production and CO2e emissions from interventions with “business as usual” (BAU or LMP) and CRGE offtake rates (%) Percent (%)
  • 13. GHG (CO2e ) emissions from BAU (without intervention) and with interventions with LMP and CRGE offtake rates (in Mt ton)
  • 14. What do LMP results mean for the GTP II Government livestock development policy goals need to avoid significant trade-offs: •If invest in all LMP interventions GOE could eliminate poverty in 2.35 million livestock keeping households •Focus on poultry development to achieve better food security, enable red meat exports, and lower GHG emissions •Combination of cattle and poultry can lower domestic meat prices, while increasing exports and foreign exchange earnings •Focus on dairy development to achieve food security in domestic markets and also increase export earnings
  • 15. Public (including donors) and Private investment shares by major value chains (ETB Millions)
  • 16. What is needed for the PRIVATE SECTOR to play its investment role in GTP II Success in these interventions during GTP II will require full participation of the private sector: •Value adding processing by Private Sector is crucial for success •Need to attract and enable very substantial private investment in livestock product production and processing •Need dramatic improvement in the investment environment (streamline investment process for agribusinesses) •Land made available for livestock investments – production, processing, growing animal feed, etc. •Need more attractive incentives private investment -- subsidized land leasing rates, low interest loans, tax holidays
  • 17. LMP Research Priorities Priority research areas to implement the LMP include: • Selection to improve indigenous red meat animals and on-farm record keeping • Better cross-breeding of dairy cattle and small ruminants • Improved family poultry and camel improvement • How to manage/improve rangelands in pastoral areas • Developing new poultry lines using indigenous and exotic breeds • How to reduce animal traction and mechanization • Ensuring that research has impact - learning how to scale up technologies • Impact assessment to support better policy decisions • Improving seed and feed options for livestock producers • How to improve livestock and livelihoods data, esp. in pastoral areas
  • 18. The Core LMP Team – MOA, EIAR & ILRI
  • 19. MoA Reaction to LMP • The Agriculture Minister said “GOE will adopt and implement the LMP” • Livestock State Ministry owns the LSA, GTP II and LMP • Results taken as realistic, fact-based to inform investment decisions (based on GOE criteria: poverty reduction, food and nutrition security, or economic growth, or combination of all) • Committed to expand the use of the tool in planning, policy analysis and research
  • 20. Red Meat production from BAU (no investment) and with intervention - with LMP and CRGE offtake rates (in tons) Tons
  • 21. Percentage increase in all meat production and CO2e emission from interventions with BAU (LMP) and CRGE offtake rates (%) Percent (%)
  • 22. Percentage increase in Chicken Meat and Eggs production and CO2e emission from interventions with BAU (LMP) and CRGE offtake rates (%) Percent (%)
  • 23. Percentage increase in cow milk production and CO2e emission from interventions with CRGE and BAU offtake rates (%) Percent (%)