Presented by Caroline Kanyuuru, Helen Altshul and Helena Posthumus at the Priority Country Planning Meeting (Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Vietnam), ILRI, Nairobi, 26–27 March 2019

1. Theory Based Approach to Planning, Monitoring and Evaluating in
the Livestock CRP
Caroline Kanyuuru1, Helen Altshul1 and Helena Posthumus2
Priority Country Planning Meeting (Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Vietnam)
ILRI, Nairobi, 26–27 March 2019
1. ILRI 2. Royal Tropical Institute

2. Why Theories of Change
• The need to demonstrate research efforts contribution (rather than proving attribution) to
development outcomes
• High complexity at CRP level intervention (multi projects, multi sites,)
• Inadequacy in experimental based methodologies (the need for counterfactuals to make causal
inference)

3. Elements of the ToC
• Vision
• Context
• Defined strategies
• Partners and stakeholders (with whom)
• Anticipated changes (short, medium, long term)
• Evidence to support ToC & assumptions where no evidence exist
• Enabling mechanism

4. Emphasis on process
• Explicitly and implicitly include all elements
• Evolving process with more insight
• Capacity and behavioural changes are key as they are directly influenced by interventions
• Based on previous research and stakeholder views

5. Planning & designing using ToCs
• Engage stakeholders in ToC development. Two ways;
– A small team to think through the elements and validate with a wider group
– Or brainstorm right from the start with the wider group
• The product
– Logic model showcasing elements of ToC (explicitly & implicitly)
– Consensus from stakeholders on the intervention logic

7. Evaluation through contribution analysis
• To demonstrate a contribution claim that an intervention made a difference;
– Reasoned ToC (ToC elements through stakeholder deliberations)
– Implemented activities
– Evidence to verify changes – gathered during planning
– Assumptions, external factors (context) and mechanisms tested

8. Previous work under the Livestock and Fish CRP
• File:Theory of Change monitoring framework_Ethiopia SR VC.pdf
• File:Theory of Change_Ethiopia SR VC_Baseline_ Research Centers.pdf
• File:Theory of Change_Ethiopia SR VC_Baseline_ Extension_DistrictOffices.pdf
• http://livestock-fish.ilriwikis.org/File:Tanzania_Maziwa_Zaidi_TOC_08_04_15.pdf
• http://livestock-fish.ilriwikis.org/images/4/46/Maziwa_Zaidi_Theory_of_Change_-_Context_and_Startpoint_-
_October_2015.pdf

9. Managing through learning
• Interventions are not static but rather evolving as evidence will demonstrate
• Reflective learning by stakeholders based on evidence will support decision making
• Adaptive management will guide changes in interventions and resource budgeting

10. Feedback on the process
• There is need to keep the process light
• Learnings from the ToC process should be a priority

11. So what …? Suggestions for next steps
At country level:
• Review existing – or develop new – ToC and impact
pathways. Are they still relevant or do they need
updating?
• Review your country plans and activities – how do
they fit into the ToC (in particular sphere of
influence part: the grey boxes and outcomes)
• Develop your own learning questions (related to the
ToC) for your country plan
At CRP management unit level:
• Assist countries in mapping
countries plans and activities into
overarching ToC
• Develop a learning framework /
protocol
• Facilitate monitoring and learning
around ToC on a regular basis

12. CGIAR Research Program on Livestock
livestock.cgiar.org
The CGIAR Research Program on Livestock aims to increase the productivity and profitability of livestock agri-food
systems in sustainable ways, making meat, milk and eggs more available and affordable across the developing world.
This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.
The program thanks all donors and organizations which globally support its work through their contributions to the CGIAR system