Presented by Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA) Presented at 2015 ECAMA Research Symposium Malawi Institute of Management (MIM), 4-5 June, 2015

1. Agricultural transformation and value
chain development:
Lessons from Randomized Control
Trials

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3. 3

4. The Problem
Understand
market failures
Develop
innovations
Use frontier
knowledge from
economics,
political science
and psychology
Impact
evaluations
(Randomized
control trials)
Product design
tests
Operational
research
Test in multiple
contexts
Learn when to do
what
Conferences, global
and local
Workshops with policy
makers and
practitioners
Policy memos and
practitioner briefs
Direct
implementation
Hands-on
technical
assistance
Practitioners’
toolkits

5. Our solution
• In our evaluations we only use randomized control trials
(RCTs)
– Random samples
– Randomized groups: treatment, control groups
– “Treatments” (e.g. different discounts on fertilizer, different
microcredit products)
• Why use RCTs?
– Reduces selection bias
– Measures what we want to measure and isolates “disturbing” factors
– Most reliable method of evaluation
So why are we interested in agricultural technology?
How is agriculture related to poverty?
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6. Over 450 projects in 51
countries
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8. IPA’s comparative advantage
• Research for impact: We make research results actionable.
• Experts in evaluation: We are the largest implementer of randomized
evaluations in the development field.
• Deep local presence: Allows us to cultivate deep relationships needed
for policy and research oversight.
• Long term partnerships: We bring together researchers and decision
makers to create and utilize innovative solutions that are relevant to the
needs of the poor and based on evidence.
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9. Our 10 years have taught us …
• Need local research
infrastructure.
• Providing direct services can
conflict with our role.
• Influencing policy requires
more than communications.
• Requires deep relationships
and local understanding and
context.
• Need to replicate results to
different contexts and
understand operational
challenges.
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10. Our Impact
• Large-scale influence
• Evaluation partners make
decisions based on study
results
• Other organizations adapt
evidence
• Global debates are
influenced
• Evidence-based decision
making culture or institutions
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Over 40 million children dewormed

11. Randomized Controlled Trials
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12. Agricultural Transformation:
Seeking Solutions
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Agricultural yields are
higher in some regions
than in others.
Sub-Saharan Africa
almost stagnating.
World Development Report (2008)

13. Need for Evidence… Value
Chain Breakdown?
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The Organic Business Guide

14. A Well-Timed Nudge
• Increasing fertilizer use: are high-cost subsidy
programs the only way to go?
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15. A Well-Timed Nudge
• IPA Researchers (Duflo et al, 2010) studied the
effect of the Savings and Fertilizer Initiative
(SAFI) in Western Kenya.
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16. A Well-Timed Nudge
• Enabling
farmers to
prepay for
fertilizer when
they had cash
on hand was
effective in
promoting
fertilizer
adoption.
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17. Impact of Friends
• Impaction Technology Adoption: can social
networks work?
• Working with the Ministry of Agriculture and Food
Security IPA Researches (Beaman, et al) helped
identify seed farmers (local farmers trained by
Agricultural Extension Development Officers)
based upon their connections in the community
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18. Impact of Friends
• Significant
adoption of new
agricultural
technology (pit
planting) in
seasons two and
three in network-
targeted villages
(61.4-79.5%)
verse
comparison
villages (4.4%).
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19. Fingerprinting to Reduce Risky
Borrowing
• If we see something that
works, why not implement
that program fully?
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20. Fingerprinting to Reduce Risky
Borrowing
A 2008 study (Yang, et al, 2012) in Malawi found that
fingerprinting identification for microloans caused high-
risk borrowers to take out smaller loans and improve their
repayment behavior (lowered default)
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21. References for Studies Cited
• A Gentle Nudge:
– Policy Brief: http://www.povertyactionlab.org/publication/well-
timed-nudge
– Paper: http://economics.mit.edu/files/6170
• Impact of Social Networks:
– Overview: http://www.povertyactionlab.org/evaluation/making-
networks-work-policy-evidence-agricultural-technology-
adoption-malawi
• Fingerprinting to Reduce Risky Borrowing:
– Policy Brief:
http://www.povertyactionlab.org/publication/fingerprinting-
reduce-risky-borrowing
– Paper: http://sites.lsa.umich.edu/deanyang/wp-
content/uploads/sites/205/2014/12/gine-goldberg-yang-
fingerprinting.pdf
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22. More to come
• IPA is continuously conducting new evaluations and studies that add
to our knowledge about agricultural development
• Our latest work and ongoing research projects can be found online:
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23. Agricultural Technology
Adoption Initiative (ATAI)
• Our partner organizations J-PAL and CEGA are conducting
a range of studies to identify barriers to technology
adoption and potential solutions
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