CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets Workshop on Rural Transformation in the 21st Century (Vancouver, BC – 28 July 2018, 30th International Conference of Agricultural Economists). Presentation by Paul Dorosh and James Thurlow (IFPRI).
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Urbanization, Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Africa
1. Urbanization, Agriculture and Rural
Transformation in Africa
Paul Dorosh and James Thurlow (IFPRI)
PIM Workshop on Rural Transformation in the 21st Century
ICAE Vancouver, 28 July 2018
2. Poverty & Population Growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990
1996
2002
2008
2013
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Shareofglobalpoorpopulation(%)
East Asia
& Pacific
South
Asia
Sub-
Saharan
Africa
Source: Global projections
from Thurlow, Dorosh &
Davies (2017) using
historical (1993-2013) GDP
growth rates (WDI),
estimated poverty-growth
elasticities (WDI and
POVCALNET), and
projected populations
(UNDESA)
Fact 1: Global poverty is falling and is concentrating in Africa
(and in harder to reach places)
3. Population Growth & Urbanization
Source: Thurlow, Dorosh &
Davies (2017) using UNDESA
population and urbanization
projections
Fact 2: High population growth in Africa means fast growing
rural populations, despite urbanization
-1
0
1
2
3
0 20 40 60 80 100
Annualpopulationgrowthrate(%)
Urban population share (%)
East Asia &
Pacific
South
Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Latin America &
Caribbean
2040s
2010s
1950s
1980s
4. Urbanization & Economic Growth
Source: Thurlow, Dorosh &
Davies (2017) using
UNDESA urbanization rates
and WDI GDP estimates
Fact 3: Urbanization in Africa is tracking East Asia’s pathway,
but at a much slower rate of economic growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 20 40 60 80 100
GDPpercapita(constant2011$1000PPP)
Urban population share (%)
East Asia &
Pacific
Latin America &
Caribbean
Sub-Saharan
Africa
South
Asia
2015
1990
2000
5. Growth & Structural Change
Source: Thurlow, Dorosh &
Davies (2017) using ILO
employment and WDI GDP
data.
Fact 4: African workers are leaving agriculture more slowly than other in
countries when they were at similar development stages (i.e., LIC to LMIC)
Uganda
Mozambique
Ethiopia
Angola
Chad
Ghana
Nigeria
Tanzania
Rwanda
Lesotho
Kenya
SSA
The Gambia
China
Indonesia
South KoreaMalaysia
Philippines
Thailand India
Brazil
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0 2 4 6 8 10
Annualincreaseinnon-agricultural
employmentshare(%-point)
Average annual GDP growth rate (%)
6. Agriculture-Food Systems
Source: Thurlow et al. (2018) database of Agri-Food System GDP estimates (AgGDP+)
Fact 5: African agriculture’s downstream linkages are sizable, extend into
urban centers, and are helping drive economic growth and structural change
43%
29% 29% 30% 29%
56%
40%
46%
43%
39%
Ethiopia (2011) Kenya (2013) Malawi (2014) Rwanda (2015) Tanzania (2016)
EAST AFRICA
Food services
Trade & transport
Inputs
Processing
Agriculture
Share of national GDP (%)
7. Downstream Growth & Poverty
Source: Dorosh & Thurlow (2018) Beyond Agriculture Versus Non-Agriculture. World Development
Fact 6: Downstream sectors also have strong growth-poverty linkages
(and these sectors are growing 2-3x faster than agriculture)
Poverty-Growth Elasticities
%-point change in poverty headcount rate given 1% increase in GDP
0.80
1.02
0.94
0.650.67
1.04
0.48
0.89
0.59 0.61 0.61
0.64
Malawi Tanzania Uganda Zambia
Agriculture
Non-agriculture
Agro-Processing
Trade & Transport
8. Rethinking Our Approach
Priority 1: Reverse typical approach of addressing rural poverty by focusing on the
rural smallholder – we should instead work backwards from market opportunities
How can poor
farmers raise their
productivity?
How can marketing
constraints be
overcome?
How are supply
chains and marketing
systems changing?
1 2 3
From a “farmer-first” approach…
(focuses on farm productivity & investments, distance to markets, etc.)
What market
opportunities exist?
What is required to
supply this market?
Can poor farmers
profitably participate
in the value chain?
1 2 3
…to a “market-first” approach
(focuses on final products, supply competitiveness, product quality, market & price policies, etc.)
9. Aligning Rural & Urban Policies
Priority 2: Promoting food system (and rural) transformation requires greater
coordination between agricultural and urban policies (and research)
LIC
LMIC
UMIC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50
Shareofnonagriculturalemploymentin
ruralareas(%)
Share of agricultural employment in urban areas (%)
Low-income countries (LIC)
Lower middle-income countries (LMIC)
Upper middle-income countries (UMIC)
Income group averages
Source: Dorosh and Thurlow (forthcoming)
10. Differentiating Opportunities & Priorities
City
Town Peri-urban
Remote
rural
Town Peri-rural
20%
SS-Africa’s rural
population <1hrs
from city of 50k+
35%
SS-Africa’s rural
population >3hrs
from city of 50k+
25%
SS-Africa’s rural population
1-3hrs from city of 50k+
Priority 3: Different strategies are needed for linking big cities and smaller
towns to and peri-urban and more remote rural areas
Hinweis der Redaktion
Poverty defined by WB as $1.90 per person per day (PPP adjusted)
Not all regions are shown (but shares of poverty in other regions is very low by comparison)
Results (and approach) are consistent with other major studies
Explanation for concentration:
Economic growth is slower in SSA
Poverty Growth Elasticities are lower in SSA
Population growth is higher in SSA (
Urban areas in SSA are generally smaller (definitions differ) - If we focus on urban centers with 300,000 people or more, we see lower urbanization rates in SSA (figure not shown but in book chapter)
Despite urbanization, global poverty is concentrating in rural SSA (i.e., shift in global poverty to Africa is faster than the shift in SSA poverty to urban areas)
Urban areas in SSA are generally smaller (definitions differ) - If we focus on urban centers with 300,000 people or more, we see lower urbanization rates in SSA (figure not shown but in book chapter)
Urban areas in SSA are generally smaller (definitions differ) - If we focus on urban centers with 300,000 people or more, we see lower urbanization rates in SSA (figure not shown but in book chapter)