1. Livestock within a multi-market modeling
framework: the example of IMPACT
Siwa Msangi, Dolapo Enahoro
An Notenbaert, Mario Herrero, Signe Nelgen
Petr Havlik
Conference on Mainstreaming Livestock Value Chains, Section 4: Data and Tools
Best Western Premier Airport Hotel, Accra , Ghana.
5-6 Nov, 2013

2. Livestock in the context of global agriculture
 The challenge of modeling global agriculture comes
from:
• Representing the various linkages between markets – in
terms of consumer choice behavior, linkages b/w output
markets & important mkt inputs (e.g. labor, fertilizer)
• Accounting for the scarcity of important inputs into
production (land, water, feed, etc) – in quantity terms
• Adequately representing the producer decisions and
objectives (profit maximize/cost minimize/stock-holding)
• Representing the heterogeneity of production systems
• Differentiating behaviors for annual vs perennial activities
Page 2

3. Improving livestock representation in IMPACT
 Starting from the IFPRI IMPACT model – we have been
working to improve the representation of livestock – in a
way that addresses these challenges
 Have undertaken this in a number of steps
• Disaggregate livestock production across systems
• Capture differences in feed requirements across these
systems
• Link the availability of these feeds to what is available on
the landscape or what can be obtained through markets
 Has been a step-wise process, that has required rethinking some key aspects of how livestock is modeled
Page 3

4. Overview of model structure

5. The Global Livestock Production Systems
Source: FAO, 2011

6. Distributions of Livestock
60
50
Mixed
Rangeland
40
Urban
Other
30
20
Developed
Countries
Developing
Countries
10
Fig 2: Distribution of Cattle in Livestock
Systems in Developed Countries
0
Mixed
Rangeland
Urban
Fig 4: (Percent) Distribution of Sheep and Goat
in Livestock Systems
Other
Fig 3: Distribution of Cattle in Livestock Systems in Developing Countries

7. Key components of livestock modeling
 Demand-side factors are similar to those for other nonlivestock commodities.
 Food demand is mainly driven by
• Per-capita income growth
• Population
• Urbanization (and other preference shifters)
 Feed demand occurs for marketed and non-marketed
feed products – whereas we observe marketed feeds in
data, we have to calculate the non-marketed feed uses

This is often where FAOSTAT data do not agree with the
feed demands derived from biophysical requirements for
animal growth
Page 7

8. Consumption of Meat
As people get richer
they consume more animal products

9. Key components of livestock modeling
 The supply-side of agricultural markets are driven by both
biophysical & economic drivers of change
 Biophysical components relate to
• Climate (temp, water) – determine biological stress
• Soil quality – matters to vegetative growth (grasslands)
• Animal growth and nutrient requirements
 Economic factors relate to

Technological change (productivity, efficiency)
 System change (extensive -> mixed -> intensive)
 Animal numbers – monogastrics are annual activities,
whereas ruminants have herd dynamics that reflect
producer decisions and biophysical determinants
 Yield per animal – relates to feed (availability & practices)
Page 9

10. Key components of livestock modeling
 The key decisions we should model for livestock are:
• Feed mix (across marketed & non-marketed feeds)
• Stocking rates (has an implicit land use dimension)
• Off-take and cull
 The land use dimensions of livestock are complex and
differ across systems (which we don’t capture well)



Extensive systems – needs to be explicit
Mixed systems – depends on prodn of crop residues &
availability of other supplementary feeds
Intensive systems – has no explicit LU dimension
 The land use dimensions of transhumance are entirely
missed in much of the macro-modeling that is done
Page 10

11. Breakdown of Livestock Feed
Demand for pasture & grass expected to grow the fastest
IMPACT model (2013)
Page 11

12. Aquaculture Now a Major Meat Sector
 In only 20 years, aquaculture has grown to nearly
match the share of beef in global meat production
Page 12

13. Aquaculture: Fastest Growing Food Sector
 Growth of aquaculture almost 2x as fast as other
food/meat sectors
Page 13

14. Changes in Global Use of Fishmeal for Feed
 Aquaculture ‘crowding out’ livestock for fishmeal feed use
 Fishmeal and protein meals are substitutable, but with limits
 Livestock (esp poultry) have been able to find substitutes for
fishmeal more easily compared to fish
Source: Shepherd (2012)

15. Global Demand for Fishmeal from
Livestock and Aquaculture
IMPACT model (2013)
Page 15

16. Feed sourcing from co-products
 Important co-products from industrial processes like
biofuels production will continue to be used as feed
IMPACT model (2013)
Page 16

17. The importance of co-products
 The future success of the bioeconomy depends on the
added-value of co-products derived from chemical
conversion processes (e.g. DDGS from biofuels) – for
use in important sectors such as livestock
 When ‘by-products’ become ‘co-products’ (i.e.
something to be used rather than disposed of) – then
the commercial potential & profitability improves
 The failure of jatropha to take off is due to low yields as
well as limited co-product value for uses in animal feed
(compared to other oilseeds) – needs more R&D
 The processing waste from fish food preparation will
become increasingly valuable source of feed for fish
Page 17

18. Summary & Implications for Policy
The future for livestock (and fish) depends heavily
on the ability to manage feed & disease
 Gains in technical efficiency and sourcing of
additional feeds will be critical for livestock and fish
(fish & poultry are the most efficient feed converters)
 Monogastrics & aquaculture will still compete for feed
 Sharing of best practices in management is crucial
Some key weaknesses in modeling livestock are:
 Modeling rangeland/grassland availability
 Relatively few biophysical models (compared to
crops) – still don’t capture heat/water stress directly
 Capturing the land-use dimensions still a challenge

19. THANK YOU!
See: http://www.ifpri.org/