Update on Australian TIMES Model Development

1. Update on Australian TIMES model development
ENERGY
Luke Reedman
December 11, 2017 | ETSAP Researcher Workshop, Zurich, SWITZERLAND

2. Outline
• Overview of CSIRO
• Energy landscape in Australia
• Energy system modelling at CSIRO
• AUS-TIMES model development
• Future plans
2 |

3. 3 |
Who we are
Darwin
Alice Springs
Geraldton
2 sites
Atherton
Townsville
2 sites
Rockhampton
Toowoomba
Gatton
Myall Vale
Narrabri
Mopra
Parkes
Griffith
Belmont
Geelong
Hobart
Sandy Bay
Wodonga
Newcastle
Armidale
2 sites
Perth
3 sites
Adelaide
3 sites Sydney 5 sites
Canberra 7 sites
Murchison
Cairns
Irymple
Melbourne 5 sites
Werribee 2 sites
Brisbane
6 sites
Bribie
Island
People 5565
Sites 59
Business Units 9
Budget $1.2B
We develop 856
postgraduate research
students with our
university partners

4. DATA61HEALTH AND
BIOSECURITY
ENERGY
Our research
4 |
OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD
MINERAL RESOURCES
MANUFACTURINGLAND AND WATERAAHL

5. 5 |
Energy Business Unit/
Grids & Energy Efficiency Program
Oil, Gas
and Fuels
Low Emissions
Technologies
Unconventional
Gas
Grids and Energy
Efficiency Systems
Coal Mining
$16.6m budget
55 EFT staff (not
including students)
Grids and Renewable
Energy Integration Domain
Energy Efficiency Domain
Australian Energy
Model
Building Simulation,
Assessment and
Communication
Intelligent Demand
Control
Solar Cooling Energy Transition
Pathways
Storage
Network
Optimisation

6. Major research facilities: Solar thermal central receivers; New photovoltaics
fabrication; Renewable Energy Integration Facility; HVAC test facility..
CSIRO Energy Centre - Newcastle

7. Energy in Australia
7 |

8. Energy flows
8 |

9. Australia vs Europe
9 |

10. High voltage grid, generation and population
10 |

11. Power generation mix changes
11 |

12. Percentage of dwellings with Solar PV
12 |

13. Electricity consumption growth declining …
13 |

14. Stop-start policy
• End 2006 – Bipartisan support for emissions trading
• December 2007 – Kyoto Protocol ratified in Australia
• December 2009 – Liberal-National Coalition withdraws bipartisan
support for emission trading or any type of carbon price
• July 2012 – Carbon tax policy comes into effect at $23/tCO2e as
compromise policy under minority “hung” parliament. Designed to
revert to emission trading scheme in 2015, linking to Europe where
carbon permit prices are lower
• July 2014 – Carbon tax policy repeal comes into effect
• Early 2015 – Government implements abatement auction process
without legislation for a cost of around $15/tCO2e
• 2015 – LRET reduced
• Still uncertainty over medium- to long-term target (despite Paris
Agreement)
14 |

15. AUS-TIMES
development
15 |

16. CSIRO’s general energy modelling “suite”
16 |
Demand
model
ESM DiSCoM
Customer impact
GALLM
Global and local
technology costs
Annual down to
hourly load profiles
incorporating DSM,
PVs, EVs and other
DE
Annual centralised and on-site
electricity market
Annual road and non-road
transport market
Distribution system cost model

17. CSIRO’s general energy modelling “suite”
17 |
Demand
model
ESM DiSCoM
Customer impact
GALLM
Global and local
technology costs
Annual down to
hourly load profiles
incorporating DSM,
PVs, EVs and other
DE
Annual centralised and on-site
electricity market
Annual road and non-road
transport market
Distribution system cost model
AUS-TIMES

18. • Whole energy sector
• Detailed demand-side
• Multiple spatial scales
• High penetration VRE scenarios
• Storage representation
• Peer support and development
• Familiar with GAMS
• ESM shortcomings
• CSIRO strategy
Why move to TIMES framework?
18 |

19. AUS-TIMES structure
• Base year 2015, model horizon 2050
• 16 time slices
• 8 region model – state/territory
• End-use sectors
• Residential (heating, cooling, hot water, lighting, cooking, appliances/other)
• Services (heating, cooling, hot water, lighting, cooking, appliances/other)
• Industry and agriculture (no disaggregation yet)
• Transport (10 road vehicle classes, aviation, rail, shipping)
• Electricity sector
• NEM (16 zones), SWIS, NWIS, DKIS, MIIS
• Existing generation fleet – unit level data
• Renewable resource availability/potential
• Many technologies
19 |

20. AUS-TIMES scenario results - electricity
20 |

21. AUS-TIMES scenario results - electricity
21 |

22. AUS-TIMES scenario results – road transport
22 |

23. Australian National Outlook
plus off-model
quantitative analysis
as required
eg urban form and density,
productivity, energy use,
resource efficiency,
tourism and education
National
AUS-TIMES
energy
(electricity and
transport)
VURM
multi-sector
national
economy
MEFISTO
material stocks
& flows
GDM
biodiversity
LUTO
land use,
food and fibre
NIAM.Flow
water
VU Cities
(spatial sorting
of firms and
households)
Global
GALLM.E
electricity
GTAP.ME3
multi-sector
global economy
MAGICC
global
temperature
GALLM.T
transport
GLOBIOM
land use,
food and fibre
BILBI
biodiversity
(global scale)
Established ANO1 model
Upgraded model
Upgrade available – not in use
Replacement model
New model, expanding scope
New model – not in use
Legend:

24. AUS-TIMES – next stage
• Renewable resource availability
o Pumped storage hydro
o Biomass
o Ocean (wave/tidal)
o Geothermal
• Distributed generation
• Collaboration with ClimateWorks Australia (demand sectors)
o Building types for residential and services
o Industrial sub-sectors
o Technology database
• Link with PLEXOS?
• CSIRO pull
o CSP, H2, energy efficiency, DSR
• External pull
o DoEE, AEMO, State Governments
24 |

25. Thank you
Dr Luke Reedman
Lead | Energy Transition Pathways
CSIRO Energy
t +61 2 49606057
e luke.reedman@csiro.au
w www.csiro.au
ENERGY
Acknowledgements
Ken Noble, Brian Ó Gallachóir, George
Giannakidis, Paul Dodds, Adrian Stone, Gary
Goldstein, Amit Kanudia
CSIRO team: Thomas Brinsmead, Paul Graham,
Jeremy Qiu, Jenny Hayward, Dongxiao Wang
CWA team: Amandine Denis, Iain Stewart, Rob
Kelly, Wei Sue