Integrating probabilistic assessment of security of electricity supply into long-term energy planning exercises: an automated-data-linking modeling approach
Integrating probabilistic assessment of security of electricity supply into long-term energy planning exercises: an automated-data-linking modeling approach
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Integrating probabilistic assessment of security of electricity supply into long-term energy planning exercises: an automated-data-linking modeling approach
1. Integrating probabilistic electricity security of supply
assessment into long-term energy planning exercises:
an automated-data-linking modeling approach.
Nadia MAรZI
MINES ParisTech, PSL
Research University,
CMA - Center for Applied
Mathematics.
,The 74rd Semi-Annual ETSAP workshop
Stuttgart 7-9 November 2018
JeanโYves BOURMAUD
Marion LI
Rรฉseau de Transport
dโElectricitรฉ,
Yacine ALIMOU
2. 2
โข Motivations:
โ Suitability of existing tools and methodologies for long-term energy planning
โ More integrated approach for transition planning
โข Objectives:
โ Test the ability of a long term model (TIMES) to address short-term reliability
issues (tackled by ANTARES)
โ Develop a methodological framework to ensure:
๏ผ Cost-effective future plan
๏ผ Security of supply requirements
โข Target audience:
โ Long-term energy planners
โ Power system operators
Motivation and scope
3. 3
Energy system model: TIMES-FR
โข TIMES-FR: Energy system model for France developed by CMA-Mines ParisTech
โข Minimizes total discounted energy system cost ๏จ Investment trajectory
โข Representation of the power sector within TIMES
4. 4
Energy system model: TIMES-FR
โข Time horizon of study 2013-2050, split into 84 annual time-slices
5. 5
ANTARES: a probabilistic tool for power systems
โข Probabilistic simulator developed by RTE
โข Open source model since July-2018
โข Balance between supply and demand for the electrical interconnected system
References
6. 6
ANTARES main results
Exchanges between neighbors are
possible, within the limits of the
network
Foreachscenariostudied,ANTARES
optimizestheunitcommitmentinorderto
satisfythedemandatthelowestcost
Loss of load
7. 7
Approach: an automated-data-linking model
๏ฑ The linking model is supported by the development of several R packages
ANTARES-FRTIMES-FR
Bridge.1
Feed-back loop
Global outputs
LOLE criterion
*Init: Initialization
Global input database
ANTARES input
Fixed
TIMES input
Fixed
Init* UpdatedUpdated
Bridge.2
โข Linking model = Databases + steps
8. Ensuring consistency: Common input data
8
โข VRE load factors(correlation with load)
โข Technical โeconomic parameters
โข 2030, TIMES power generation portfolio
9. 9
Power dispatch decisions: hourly vs time-slices
Dispatchable
๏ฑ An over-estimation of the residual load duration curve(and its variability) in TIMES
leads to over-use of semi-base technologies(coal)
Non-dispatchable
10. 10
Shortfall risk analysis: LOLE adequacy metric
๏ฑ The power generation mix proposed by TIMES for 2030, does not respect the adequacy
requirements (LOLE < 3hours)
๐๐๐๐ ๐ฟ๐๐ฟ๐ท = ๐๐๐๐,
๐ ๐ก๐ ๐ฟ๐๐ฟ๐ท = 129โ,
๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐ฟ๐๐ฟ๐ท = ๐๐๐๐.
11. 11
Why we have a shortage of supply?
๏ฑ Energy balance (TIMES) versus power balance (ANTARES)
๏ฑ Shortage hours occur at the peak of residual load = low VRE power output
๏ฑ TIMES underestimates the impact of:
๏ฑ Variability of VRE (climatic conditions)
๏ฑ Operational constraints of the thermal fleet
๏ Generation capacity is insufficient to satisfy demand
Example of the median scenario
Chosen lever: capacity credit values
12. 12
Taming TIMES: capacity credit updating
๏ฑ Updating the capacity credit values over installed technologies has the potential to ensure
the LOLE criterion (LOLE <= 3 hours)
๐๐๐๐ ๐ณ๐ถ๐ณ๐ซ = ๐๐๐ ๐
๐๐๐๐ ๐ณ๐ถ๐ณ๐ซ = ๐. ๐๐ ๐(< ๐ ๐),
13. 13
Generation power mix: optimality question?
๏ฑ The last iterations activated to satisfy the LOLE criterion require a huge investment
๏ฑ Initial underestimation of investment cost : 28%
Base year
operating cost +
unsupplied energy cost
+ spilled energy cost
14. 14
โข What is new?
โ Probabilistic adequacy assessment methodology
โ Automated linking approach in contrast with soft-linking approach
โ Bi-directional linking exercise(feed-back loops)
โข What are the main caveats?
โ Electrical interconnections not taken into account
โ Need to assess adequacy for all milestone-years, and not only 2030
โข Key messages
โ The capacity mix proposed by TIMES for 2030 does not meet electricity security of
supply requirements
โ Feedback loops between TIMES and ANTARES have the potential to ensure
sufficient firm capacity(supply) to meet demand
โ The methodological framework proposed introduces the electricity security of
supply issue into long-term energy planning exercises
Concluding thoughts
15. The 74rd Semi-Annual ETSAP workshop
Stuttgart 7-9 November 2018
For further information
yacine.alimou@mines-paristech.fr
nadia.maizi@mines-paristech.fr
jean-yves.bourmaud@rte-france.com
marion.li@rte-france.com